Heisman Trophy 2014 Stock Watch: Who Is Rising and Falling Post-Week 4
Week 4 of the college football season had a peripheral impact on the national title picture (Mississippi State beating LSU) but a central impact on the Heisman Trophy picture.
The front-runner entering the week, Marcus Mariota, maintained his spot by carrying Oregon to a tough road win at Washington State. But around him, other supposed favorites sunk, while burgeoning favorites took advantage of a national spotlight.
"Falling" on this list does not mean one's Heisman candidacy is over, just like "rising" does not mean it's assured. It is simply the direction each player's stock is trending after what happened in Week 4.
Most of that is individual-based, but some of it also has to do with team performance. If a player did well on a national stage, but his team lost a big game, his Heisman stock is affected. Whether that's fair is debatable, but it's how the voting process works.
Also bear in mind that this is not a ranking of overall Heisman favorites. Todd Gurley and Kenny Hill, for example, are holding steady after beating up on Troy and SMU, respectively. But blowout wins against two of the worst FBS teams did nothing to affect their stock.
This is about the players who actually moved.
Note: For the sake of reference, here are the current Bovada Heisman odds, per OddsShark.com. Scroll down that page for the preseason odds.
Falling: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
1 of 8
Week 4 Stats (vs. Clemson)
DNP
Why He's Falling
Jameis Winston won the Heisman Trophy last season, which means the odds were already stacked against him winning in 2014. Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com wrote an article titled "Jameis Winston Will Not Win a Second Heisman" in August, even though he was by many accounts the favorite to repeat.
But Winston's odds slipped from bad to worse in Week 4, when his public recitation of a vulgar Internet meme led to a benching against Clemson. Especially on a weekend where Florida and Miami both lost, playing the Tigers was one of Winston's few opportunities to beat a ranked opponent in front of a national audience.
Instead, he spent four quarters loafing around the sideline in black sweatpants and a three-sizes-too-small hat.
So…where does Winston go from here? Opinions on the matter vary. Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report thinks he is still a top Heisman contender (albeit less of a favorite), but Zac Ellis of SI.com thinks he "probably cost himself a shot at a second straight Heisman."
If he wants to win, Jameis will need to stay out of trouble, play as well as he did last season, lead Florida State to another undefeated record and hope the field of players around him stumbles. The Marcus Mariotas, Bryce Pettys and Todd Gurleys of the world will need to lose multiple games or suffer a marked decrease in production.
Otherwise, I tend to skew toward the opinion of Ellis. And the experts appear to agree. In the latest Bovada Heisman odds (via Odds Shark), Winston is down to a 20-1 bet to repeat as the winner.
Ten players rank ahead of him.
Rising: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
2 of 8Week 4 Stats (at LSU)
15-of-24, 268 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 22 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD
Why He's Rising
Dak Prescott led Mississippi State to a 34-29 win at LSU, staking his team to a 34-10 lead before a late-game comedy of errors (from others, not Prescott) almost cost it the win.
In the past five seasons, only two other quarterbacks have won a road game at Tiger Stadium: AJ McCarron in 2012 and Tim Tebow in 2009. Combined, McCarron and Tebow had 344 yards of total offense (172 apiece), three touchdowns and one interception in those games.
Prescott had 373, three and zero.
Granted, this year's LSU defense is not as good as the 2009 or 2012 LSU defense, but it still entered Week 4 averaging 205.7 total yards per game—a sample that included a neutral-field tilt with Wisconsin. A lesser John Chavis defense is still a John Chavis defense. Beating LSU in Baton Rouge is still beating LSU in Baton Rouge.
For the season, Prescott has completed 60 percent of his passes for 964 yards (10 yards per attempt), 11 touchdowns and two picks. He's also rushed 62 times for 378 yards and three scores.
Those are Heisman numbers through a month.
Falling: Nick Marshall, QB, Auburn
3 of 8
Week 4 Stats (at Kansas State)
17-of-31, 231 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 10 carries, 46 yards
Why He's Falling
Nick Marshall didn't play poorly, per se, in a road win at Kansas State, but he didn't play like a Heisman contender, either.
This is problematic for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, the game was on a Thursday night, with no other games being played, which means everyone in the college football populace (voters included) was watching intently.
Second, Kansas State's defense, which admittedly had a well-tailored game plan, does not project as a juggernaut, which could hurt Marshall's case in a direct comparison with Big 12 Heisman contenders such as Bryce Petty and Trevor Knight.
If Petty and Knight put up big numbers in a convincing win over the Wildcats, it will not shine a good light on Marshall's solid, but quiet, 277 yards of offense, two touchdowns and one interception in a six-point win. His receivers dropped some catchable passes, sure, but Marshall was not particularly sharp with his arm or his legs in Manhattan.
Every Heisman candidate gets a mulligan or two, but Marshall needed to save his for the daunting SEC West schedule ahead—especially after missing the first half of the Arkansas game with a suspension. Eking out the win keeps his Heisman chances healthy, but they are no longer trending upward as they were entering the week.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Rising: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4 of 8
Week 4 Stats (vs. Florida)
10 catches, 201 yards, 3 TD
Why He's Rising
Because of the way his tenure at USC ended, it was easy to forget what Lane Kiffin did with Marqise Lee in 2012, when Lee had 118 catches for 1,721 yards and 14 touchdowns and won the Biletnikoff Award.
It's harder to forget that now, though, given how Kiffin has utilized Amari Cooper, who leads the nation with 43 catches and 655 yards to go with five touchdowns through four weeks. Most of his production didn't come via one-on-one matchups with Vernon Hargreaves III, as many had hoped, but Cooper still torched a viable Florida secondary for 10 catches, 201 yards and three scores in Week 4.
"I think Coach Kiffin is a very smart offensive coordinator," Cooper said after the game, per Stewart Mandel of FoxSports.com. "He takes advantage of matchups. And he knows exactly what he’s doing."
With Kiffin coaching out of his mind and quarterback Blake Sims throwing out of his mind, Cooper has been thrust into the middle of the Heisman discussion—and rightfully so. He's a threat in the short, middle and deep thirds, and he plays just as well on the outside as he does from the slot.
There is no prudent way to defend that.
Falling: Duke Johnson, RB, Miami
5 of 8
Week 4 Stats (at Nebraska)
18 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD; 5 receptions, 84 yards
Why He's Falling
It was nothing Duke Johnson did that hurt his Heisman stock at Nebraska. It was the fact that his team lost the game.
Johnson, for his part, had 177 yards and a touchdown on 23 touches in Lincoln, which is pretty good given the hostile road environment. It was the sort of performance that should have, in a vacuum, kept a player's Heisman chances alive (if not improved them).
But Miami lost its second game of the season, 41-31, which dropped it to 2-2 overall, 1-2 against FBS opponents and 0-2 against teams from a power-five conference. The 'Canes are a team geared to play for next year, when freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya will be one year older and another solid crop of recruits will have joined the roster.
Teams that are "playing for next year" do not produce Heisman winners (or at least they are not supposed to).
Rising: Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska
6 of 8
Week 4 Stats (vs. Miami)
35 carries, 229 yards, 2 TD; 1 reception, 3 yards, 1 TD
Why He's Rising
Nebraska beat Miami, and Ameer Abdullah outperformed Duke Johnson in a matchup of Heisman-contender running backs.
How could his stock not rise?
Abdullah was a workhorse in the win over the Hurricanes, gaining more than 230 yards and scoring three touchdowns on 36 touches. For the season, he ranks sixth in the country with 156.3 rushing yards per game and second with 190.3 against FBS teams.
FCS McNeese State was the only team to contain Abdullah this season—or at least the only team to contain him for 59 minutes. In the 60th minute of that game, however, Nebraska's senior running back took a screen pass 58 yards for a touchdown, shedding eight tacklers to put Nebraska ahead, 31-24, and avoid an ugly upset.
With his "Heisman moment" firmly entrenched, Abdullah just needs to finish with big individual numbers and Nebraska to win 10 or 11 games if he wants to make the trip to New York. Against Miami, he moved one step closer to making both of those things happen.
Falling: Maty Mauk, QB, Missouri
7 of 8
Week 4 Stats (vs. Indiana)
29-of-48, 331 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 13 carries, 32 yards
Why He's Falling
Maty Mauk quietly struggled against Central Florida, but his six yards per attempt were forgiven because he threw four touchdowns (a misleading stat) and his team won by 28 points.
Against Indiana, he was not as lucky.
Mauk again failed to throw for more than seven yards per attempt, needing 48 passes to reach 331 yards in a home loss to the Hoosiers. Really, though, that last phrase—"in a home loss to the Hoosiers"—matters much more than Mauk's inefficient passing.
Heisman winners do not lose home games to Indiana:
| Heisman Winner (Year) | Team Record | Worst Home Loss |
| Jameis Winston (2013) | 14-0 | n/a |
| Johnny Manziel (2012) | 11-2 | Florida |
| Robert Griffin III (2011) | 10-3 | n/a |
| Cam Newton (2010) | 14-0 | n/a |
| Mark Ingram (2009) | 14-0 | n/a |
| Sam Bradford (2008) | 12-2 | n/a |
| Tim Tebow (2007) | 9-4 | Auburn |
| Troy Smith (2006) | 12-1 | n/a |
*Note: This table extends toward infinity.
Unless Indiana suddenly morphs into a Big Ten powerhouse, Mauk's Heisman candidacy is over.
One week before beating Missouri, Indiana lost at Bowling Green.
The chances of that happening are zilch.
Rising: QB Taysom Hill, BYU
8 of 8
Week 4 Stats (vs. Virginia)
13-of-23, 187 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT; 17 carries, 72 yards, 1 TD
Why He's Rising
Max Valles is a sophomore linebacker for the Virginia Cavaliers and one of the best young pass-rushers in the country. The list of players he's lined up against since last year includes, but is not limited to, Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins, Duke Johnson and Brett Hundley.
But they all paled in comparison to Taysom Hill.
"I told [Hill] after the game," said Valles, per Steve Luhm of The Salt Lake Tribune, "…He is the best athlete I have ever played against."
That is high praise for the BYU junior quarterback, but it's certainly not undeserved. Best known for carving up Texas the past two years, Hill has developed into one of the top dual-threat QBs in America, and although he did not play his best game against Virginia, he still helped the Cougars put up 41 points against a stingy defense.
More importantly, he helped the Cougars move to 4-0 and clear one of the biggest hurdles left on their schedule. Road trips to UCF, Boise State and Cal all loom as potential losses, but for now, BYU is on track to earn a Group of Five slot in a New Year's Day bowl.
If it does, Hill will almost certainly get the invite to New York. He's a long shot to win the award outright, but if enough things elsewhere break his way, it's not like a BYU quarterback lifting the Heisman is without precedent.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
