How Many New Nationals Will It Take to Become a Contender?

“The Plan” is dead. Long live “The Plan.”

After yet another embarrassing loss on Sunday, the Washington Nationals are now 26-65 and on pace to win just 46 games in 2009, a scant six more games than the miserable Mets of 1962.

The Nationals have a couple of options at this point.

They can continue to try to find young players with “high upside” who will make it to the major leagues “soon” or they need to finally recognize that there simply isn’t enough organizational talent to continue with “The Plan” as designed without wasting several more seasons, and with them, the patience of a dwindling fan base.

A prime example of this fork-in-the-road is the team’s current outfield.

A year ago, the Nationals’ outfield consisted of 23-year-old Lastings Milledge, 24-year-old Elijah Dukes and 28-year-old Austin Kearns. All three were perfect representatives of what Jim Bowden’s plan was trying to accomplish.

Today, however, things have changed. Lastings Milledge was traded to Pittsburgh. Elijah Dukes' stats dipped below a point where his attitude could be tolerated and he is currently calling Syracuse home.

And Austin Kearns is hitting .196. Not much more to say there.

In their place are three new outfielders, all much older, all who have reached their prospective ceilings, and all are doing a fine job for Washington.

We can find an almost unlimited litany of excuses as to why the Nationals, for want of a better word, suck this year, but nowhere on that list will we find anything about the outfield.

Let’s fast-forward to the end of the year and see how the stats of Adam Dunn, Nyjer Morgan and Josh Willingham project.

Dunn & Morgan’s numbers are their current stats projected out to a full season. Because Willingham has only 202 at-bats thus far (what was Manny thinking?), we’ll project him out to 550 at-bats, a typical full major league season:

LF- Adam Dunn: .262-44-113, .401 OBP, .531 SLG, .937 OPS

CF- Nyjer Morgan: .290-4-58, 52 steals, .356 OBP, .368 SLG, .725 OPS

RF- Josh Willingham: .288-32-70, .405 OBP, .545 SLG, .950 OPS

At their current pace, the three will average .280-26-81 with 20 steals, a .387 on-base percentage, .481 slugging percent and an .868 OPS.

Many teams would be delighted with that outfield just as it is. It is a compilation of power and speed, with a dazzling center fielder helping hide the defensive shortcomings of its corner outfielders.

The problem for the Nationals is that Morgan is 28, Dunn 29 and Willingham 30. They are in the prime of their careers and will be in their mid thirties before “The Plan” catches up to them.

So the outfield is good enough to be part of a contending team. Add to those three Ryan Zimmerman and Jesus Flores and the Nationals have five of their eight position players who are “contending” type players; that is, they are good enough to be on a winner.

The Nationals should enter 2010 with three solid starters from a group that includes John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Craig Stammen and Scott Olsen. There will be a host of hopefuls, perhaps five or six, who will try to fill those last two slots in the rotation.

And if Steven Strasburg signs, which I think he will, he’ll be in that rotation by June.

The Nationals should be better able to field a competitive bullpen next year. Currently, the team has Sean Burnett (1-2, 2.66), Mike McDougal (0-0, 2.37), Jason Bergman (0-1, 6.05) and Joe Beimel (0-5, 3.38) who could come back in 2010 and provide a solid foundation.

Drew Storen, the team’s other first round pick this past June, has already earned a promotion to ‘A’ Potomac based on his 3.95 ERA and 23 strikeouts and no walks in 13 innings at Hagerstown. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the closer’s job next spring.

Zech Zincola, the Nationals “Pitcher of the Year” in 2007, pitched brilliantly for ‘AA’ Harrisburg this year, going 1-1, 1.74 before earning a promotion to ‘AAA’ Syracuse. He will likely be in the running for a spot in the bullpen as well.

So really, things aren’t all that bleak for the worst team in baseball. Hopefully, we’ll be hearing in the next three or four weeks that Steven Strasburg has signed his contract, and because the Nationals most certainly will have the number-one pick again in 2010, they’ll likely draft catcher Bryce Harper, who is considered every bit as talented as Strasburg.

Looking at the current roster, the Nationals are really three position players (first, second and short), two starters and two or three relievers away from being a team that can win more games than they lose, perhaps more.

The Nationals will drop more than $21 million in salary off the books this winter as the contracts of Austin Kearns, Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard expire. If the Nationals didn’t spend another dime next year other than that saved $21 million, the team could vastly improve their outlook for 2010.

The Nationals could add a power hitting first baseman and a quality starting pitcher next year and not affect their payroll at all. How much better do you think the team would be if they signed another Adam Dunn, John Lannan, and two Joe Beimel’s with that $21 million?

Would they win 80 games? Ninety games?

Having predicted a 75-87 record for 2009, I don’t think you want me doing any more prognosticating. That said, the team has the opportunity to impress next year if Mike Rizzo doesn’t begin another round of veteran-for-prospect trades.

Perhaps it’s time for “The Plan” to meet an untimely end. There is “enough” talent in the minors and there is “enough” talent on the big club. If the Nationals add “just enough” new talent through free agency and trades, well, who knows.

Adam Dunn might finally play for a winner.