Updated Round-by-Round MLB Playoff Predictions Heading into the Final Week
When it comes to the MLB playoffs nothing is more important than pitching.
From Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers to Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers, there is an array of aces getting set to take part in October baseball. While top arms are a crucial part of the equation, the clubs that have the most success also are capable of scoring runs in a variety of different ways. Plus, it always helps when a key player or an entire team is just hitting stride as the postseason approaches.
Predicted AL Playoff Participants
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No. 1 Seed: Los Angeles Angels (AL West winners)
Thanks to an incredible second-half run, the Los Angeles Angels have already locked up the top spot in the AL West. The club has three more wins than the Baltimore Orioles as they cruise toward the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage.
In October, look to Albert Pujols to be a major contributor. The 34-year-old recently became the fifth player in the history of baseball to post 12 seasons with at least 100 RBI, per Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times.
No. 2 Seed: Baltimore Orioles (AL East winners)
The Orioles have also already sealed their spot atop the division and should have no trouble maintaining their edge over the Detroit Tigers for the No. 2 seed.
No. 3 Seed: Detroit Tigers (AL Central winners)
A strong September has allowed the Tigers to edge in front of the Kansas City Royals and will save the club from having to take part in the dreaded winner-takes-all that is the wild-card game.
No. 1 Wild Card: Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are in the midst of a historic collapse. Fortunately for manager Bob Melvin's squad, the Royals and the Seattle Mariners, the two teams chasing them, aren't playing much better. With Jon Lester leading the way, Oakland will limp into the wild-card game as the top seed.
No. 2 Wild Card: Kansas City Royals
The Royals have slid in September. Still, the schedule favors Kansas City more than the Seattle Mariners in the final week of the season. While the Royals close out the season against the Chicago White Sox, the M's have to take on the Angels in the final series.
Predicted NL Playoff Participants
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No. 1 Seed: Washington Nationals (NL East winners)
With the most fearsome rotation in baseball, there's no team better positioned for an October run than the Washington Nationals. Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann anchor the staff, but Stephen Strasburg has also been dealing at just the right moment. In his last six starts, the right-hander has a 3-1 record with a 2.39 ERA.
No. 2 Seed: Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West winners)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have never hit their stride. Still, the club is on its way to landing the NL West title thanks to the dominance of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
No. 3 Seed: St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central winners)
The St. Louis Cardinals didn't grab a share of the NL Central lead until the final day of August. After a big September, the club won't be giving that lead up.
No. 1 Wild Card: Pittsburgh Pirates
With a 13-6 record in September, the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing their best baseball at the best possible time. Their case for the No. 1 wild-card spot is also helped by the schedule, which sees them face the fading Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds in the final week of the season.
No. 2 Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are dealing with a slew of injuries as October rapidly approaches. In the closing week of the year, the club will also have to face off against Kershaw and Greinke.
AL Wild-Card Game Prediction
3 of 11Who: Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
When: September 30
Where: The O.co Coliseum in Oakland
The Outcome
It's difficult to think of a better pitcher to throw in a win-or-go-home setting than Jon Lester. The left-hander has a 2.11 ERA in 13 career postseason appearances and has been nearly as effective since joining Oakland on deadline day. In 10 starts with the club, the 30-year-old has posted a 6-3 record with a 2.20 ERA.
The Athletics offense has vanished in the second half, but a gem from Lester will power the club past the Kansas City Royals.
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NL Wild-Card Game Prediction
4 of 11Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
When: October 1
Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh
The Outcome
It's no easy task to pick against Madison Bumgarner. As John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle notes, that's exactly who is slated to take the mound for the San Francisco Giants in the wild-card matchup. The problem is trying to figure out just how the Giants will provide Bumgarner with any run support. With the lineup decimated by injuries, the Giants simply haven't been able to score runs in the past week.
Based on the rotation schedule, the Pittsburgh Pirates could opt to run out the highly consistent Edinson Volquez. The veteran has posted a 4-0 record with a 1.80 ERA in his last 10 starts. With the Pirates playing some of the best baseball in all of MLB and the Giants trending in the opposite direction, this game will go to the NL Central club.
ALDS Prediction
5 of 11Who: Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
When: October 2 to October 8
Where: Games 1, 2 and 5 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim; Games 3 and 4 at The O.co Coliseum in Oakland
The Outcome
The Los Angeles Angels have dismantled the competition during the 2014 regular season. However, there are questions about whether the club is built for postseason success.
Los Angeles' most effective starter over the past month has been the unheralded Matt Shoemaker, who owns a 4-0 mark with a 1.39 ERA in his last five outings. The 27-year-old is currently sidelined with a left oblique strain, as Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports.
The Angels absolutely flew past Oakland in the second half, but in a five-game series the edge goes to Oakland. Manager Bob Melvin can call on Jeff Samardzija for Games 1 and 5, while sending Jon Lester to the mound in Game 3.
It will take five games, but the top of the starting rotation will send the Athletics past the Angels.
ALDS Prediction
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Who: Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
When: October 2 to October 8
Where: Games 1, 2 and 5 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore; Games 3 and 4 at Comerica Park in Detroit
The Outcome
The most encouraging sign for the Detroit Tigers entering the playoffs has been Miguel Cabrera's monster September. The most dangerous hitter in baseball is batting .413 with six home runs and a 1.203 OPS this month. The 31-year-old recently became the fourth player in MLB history to total at least 300 bases in 11 consecutive seasons, per ESPN Stats & Info.
While Cabrera is stepping up, remarkably it's the starting staff that is looking like the weak link. Over the past month, Max Scherzer is the only starter with a sub-4.00 ERA, and no pitcher has been a bigger disappointment than David Price. With a 1-4 record and a 5.06 ERA in nine career playoff appearances, the lefty also has a surprisingly poor postseason resume.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles, who have run away with the AL East, are in prime position to carry that success into the postseason. In the second half, the team's pitching staff has a 2.83 ERA, which is the lowest mark in baseball. With Nelson Cruz powering the lineup, the O's have all the pieces to overcome the Tigers in five games.
NLDS Prediction
7 of 11Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals
When: October 3 to 9
Where: Games 1, 2 and 5 at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.; Games 3 and 4 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
The Outcome
With the Pittsburgh Pirates clicking on all cylinders and the Washington Nationals setting the pace in the NL, this series promises to be highly entertaining.
Like the two division series in the AL, this set will go the full five with the Nats ending up as the winners. Washington's starting staff is simply dominant and the strength of the lineup can't be ignored, either.
In his first games in nearly two months, Ryan Zimmerman collected a pair of hits Saturday. Center fielder Denard Span wasn't surprised by Zimmerman's seamless return, as he explained via James Wagner of The Washington Post: “That guy is unbelievable. The game is just that easy for him. Misses two months and comes back and goes 2 for 3.”
The 29-year-old is on track to become an X-factor for the Nationals this October.
NLDS Prediction
8 of 11Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
When: October 3 to 9
Where: Games 1 and 2 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles; Games 3 and 4 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
The Outcome
Who knows where the Los Angeles Dodgers would be in the standings if not for the contributions of Clayton Kershaw and and Zack Greinke. With a 20-3 record and a 1.80 ERA, Kershaw is on the verge of winning both the NL Cy Young and MVP Awards.
However, the linchpin for the Dodgers in this series will be Hyun-Jin Ryu. The starter is out with a left shoulder injury, but he expects to return by the time the playoffs arrive, as he told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.
“I’m pretty confident I will be able to come back by then,” said the starter via an interpreter.
With a healthy Ryu back in the mix, the Dodgers will top the St. Louis Cardinals in four games.
ALCS Prediction
9 of 11Who: Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
When: October 10 to 18
Where: Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore; Games 3, 4 and 5 at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland
The Outcome
The Baltimore Orioles haven't advanced to the World Series since way back in 1983 when the club won the Fall Classic. That streak will come to an end next month.
With an unexpectedly strong rotation, an impressive bullpen and a powerful lineup, the O's are the most well-rounded team in the AL as October approaches.
The fact that the Orioles will have home-field advantage in the series with the Oakland Athletics is also a big part of why the team will take the ALCS. At Camden Yards this season, Baltimore owns a 50-31 record, which is the second-best mark in the AL.
Ultimately, the team's pop will give them the edge over the Oakland Athletics in seven games. The Orioles lead all of baseball in home runs, and Oakland's staff has been highly susceptible to giving up homers. Jeff Samardzija has served up 11 home runs in his 14 outings with the club. With the likes of Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones in the lineup, that will be a major problem for the Athletics.
NLCS Prediction
10 of 11Who: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals
When: October 11 to 19
Where: Games 1,2 and 6 at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.; Games 3, 4 and 5 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
The Outcome
This series between the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers will prove to be an incredible pitching matchup.
The Dodgers have the most dominant starter in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, while the Nats have the most talented assortment of arms. With so many top arms taking part in the series, there won't be many runs scored. That means that the ability to manufacture runs late in the game will play a key part in who wins the NLCS.
Scoring runs when it matters most is exactly what manager Don Mattingly's squad specializes in. As a team, the Dodgers have the highest OPS in baseball with two outs and runners in scoring position. That knack for delivering the clutch hit will lead the Dodgers past the Nationals in six games.
World Series Prediction
11 of 11Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
When: October 21 to 29
Where: Games 1, 2 and 6 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore; Games 3, 4 and 5 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
The Outcome
The Los Angeles Dodgers have everything it takes to a win a World Series.
The club has aces atop the rotation in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Offensively, the Dodgers get production from all over the lineup. From Matt Kemp to utility man Justin Turner, Los Angeles has six players with an OPS over .800.
The team also has Dee Gordon setting the table. The leadoff hitter has the kind of disruptive speed that makes him a menace on the basepaths and gives him the ability to start a rally out of nothing.
Los Angeles will win the World Series title in six games and Yasiel Puig will take home the MVP Award thanks to his ability to impact the game both at the plate and with unreal catches in the outfield.
Note: All stats and videos courtesy of MLB.com.
If you want tot talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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