College Football Playoff 2014: Updated Outlook After Release of Week 5 Rankings
For the second straight week, a college football Saturday that looked straightforward proved anything but. Top 10 teams went down in flames, the entire Top Five was scared to varying degrees and another potential monster in the SEC West emerged.
At the top, Florida State and Oregon were sweating bullets down to the final minutes. A key defensive stop and a 12-yard Karlos Williams run gave the Seminoles an overtime victory against Clemson, while not long later Oregon was going on a 3:34 drive to ice the final moments of a 38-31 win over Washington State.
That, of course, came a couple of days after Auburn had its own game-icing drive to take down Kansas State in Manhattan. Alabama and Oklahoma were both scared deep into the third quarter of their matchups with Florida and West Virginia, respectively, but were able to prevail by double digits.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What does this mean? Well, basically, all that excitement was for nothing. The top of college football's available polls remains the same, and the poll that actually matters is still weeks from being decided. The basic takeaway from Week 4 is that LSU will almost certainly not be making a College Football Playoff appearance.
Everything else? Still to be decided. With that in mind, let's run a postmortem on the day that was for the nation's top four teams.
| 1 | Florida State (36) | 1494 | 1 | Florida State (34) | 1439 | |
| 2 | Alabama (11) | 1466 | 2 | Oregon (12) | 1400 | |
| 3 | Oklahoma (12) | 1425 | 3 | Alabama (6) | 1377 | |
| 4 | Oregon (3) | 1403 | 4 | Oklahoma (4) | 1343 | |
| 5 | Auburn | 1316 | 5 | Auburn | 1268 | |
| 6 | Baylor | 1213 | 6 | Texas A&M (4) | 1232 | |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 1197 | 7 | Baylor | 1143 | |
| 8 | Notre Dame | 1022 | 8 | Notre Dame | 967 | |
| 9 | Michigan State | 920 | 9 | Michigan State | 905 | |
| 10 | UCLA | 899 | 10 | Ole Miss | 889 | |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 875 | 11 | UCLA | 806 | |
| 12 | Arizona State | 792 | 12 | Georgia | 789 | |
| 13 | Georgia | 768 | 13 | South Carolina | 764 | |
| 14 | Stanford | 657 | 14 | Mississippi State | 706 | |
| 15 | South Carolina | 630 | 15 | Arizona State | 702 | |
| 16 | Mississippi State | 523 | 16 | Stanford | 564 | |
| 17 | Wisconsin | 518 | 17 | LSU | 541 | |
| 18 | LSU | 514 | 18 | USC | 459 | |
| 19 | Nebraska | 433 | 19 | Wisconsin | 451 | |
| 20 | Ohio State | 407 | 20 | BYU | 376 | |
| 21 | BYU | 381 | 21 | Nebraska | 296 | |
| 22 | USC | 309 | 22 | Ohio State | 196 | |
| 23 | Duke | 155 | 23 | East Carolina | 180 | |
| 24 | East Carolina | 153 | 24 | Oklahoma State | 132 | |
| 25 | Kansas State | 128 | 25 | Kansas State | 131 |
No. 1 Florida State
Sometimes, Florida State makes games look too easy. The athletes overwhelm even the best competition, with defenders swarming to the point of attack and skill-position guys all looking like they run 1.2-second 40-yard dashes. It's then at times difficult to gauge the value of Jameis Winston—an undoubtedly talented quarterback who gets a ton of time to throw and has awesome running backs and wide receivers around him.
Saturday night may have been the best possible evidence of Jameis' on-field awesomeness. Playing without the Heisman winner, who was suspended for Saturday's game after making lewd comments on campus, the Florida State offense sputtered.
Backup Sean Maguire was wildly inaccurate in the first half and wildly dangerous in the second, highlighted by two fourth-quarter interceptions. A good chunk of Maguire's 305 yards came on a 74-yard touchdown pass to Rashad Greene, who had the benefit of not having a defender within five yards of him. Strip away that play, and Maguire barely averaged more than six yards per attempt.
Greene's touchdown and two missed field goals by Clemson's Ammon Lakip wound up being the Seminoles' savior. Afraid Lakip would miss another kick, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney went for a 4th-and-short in overtime and failed. Two plays later, Karlos Williams was running in from 12 yards out to give Florida State the 23-17 win.
Meeting Williams in the end zone was Winston, who bum-rushed the field the second his running back hit paydirt.
"(Winston) told me he's proud of me," Williams told reporters after the game. "He's a great leader. He did something you really don't see in a lot of starting quarterbacks, which is rally behind the backup."
With Winston back in the lineup, the Seminoles shouldn't have many problems for the next month. They go on the road to North Carolina State next week before taking on Wake Forest and Syracuse. The Wolfpack are 4-0 but have spent the early part of their schedule on a cupcake-mashing spree. Pollsters might be turned off a bit by Winston's actions, but there's no reason to worry until Oct. 18's matchup with Notre Dame.
No. 2 Oregon
Marcus Mariota is probably your Heisman trophy favorite through the first four weeks. The Oregon signal-caller was essentially solely responsible for Saturday night's close win in Pullman, completing 21 of 25 passes for 329 yards and five touchdowns. Despite being sacked seven times (sacks count as negative rushing yards), Mariota also added 58 yards on the ground.
Like his sophomore campaign, Mariota's most impressive feat remains his decision-making. He is yet to throw an interception in 95 attempts. Add in the whole 1,135 yards, 11 touchdowns and 74 percent completion rate thing, and you have an inhuman life form sent from another planet to embarrass us mere mortals.
"He did a great job of rattling the defense in the second half," Oregon coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. "The guy is special."
The special guy was nearly undone by a defense that allowed 436 yards and four touchdowns to Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday. The Cougars were never behind by more than a touchdown and might have won the game had it not been for two lost fumbles.
As the schedule difficulty ratchets up, Oregon might have issues in its secondary. Halliday's performance gave Ducks fans deja vu from Connor Cook's first half in the Ducks' win over Michigan State.
Hmm, come to think of it, maybe Oregon just can't defend the pass against people named Connor. Just saying, Arizona; maybe it's time for the Connor Brewer era to begin under center. Anu Solomon is great and all but is he REALLY good enough to overcome the droves of evidence we have indicating a #ConnorCurse? [Kanye shrug]
(Psst, Oregon will be fine. Mariota is awesome.)
No. 3 Alabama
It took Blake Sims five years to get his chance in Tuscaloosa. He's sure taking advantage of it. The Alabama quarterback was sensational Saturday, throwing for 445 yards and four touchdowns as the Crimson Tide scored the final 21 points of their 42-21 win over Florida.
Save for a brief injury reprieve, in which backup Jake Coker threw a touchdown to Amari Cooper, Sims was the best player on the field. His gaudy yardage total came on a somewhat reserved 33 attempts, and the senior showed off his legs on multiple occasions.
"I didn't think it was possible," Sims told reporters of passing for 400 yards at Alabama. "I just try to take what I take and what the defense gives me, and just try to trust my guys that they're going to be there."
Saturday's game may have been the clearest sign yet that this is not a typical Nick Saban Alabama team. Under offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, the Tide have noticeably had more success through the air this season. Sims has thrown for 1,091 yards and eight touchdowns against only two interceptions, completing nearly three quarters of his passes.
Cooper, should he stay healthy, looks to be headed for the Biletnikoff Award. His 43 receptions are nearly four times more than any other Alabama receiver. DeAndrew White, who has caught 12 passes, and Christion Jones, who has 10, are the only other players even in double digits.
The Tide haven't had a real defensive test this season outside West Virginia—all three Florida touchdowns came as the result of Alabama turnovers; don't get it twisted—so it'll be interesting to see how they handle a road trip to Ole Miss in two weeks. The Rebels are eighth nationally in passing yards per game and have the defensive talent to match up with Alabama's athletes defensively.
Given Clint Trickett's success against the Tide in August, Bo Wallace may just find enough holes to help Ole Miss pull off the shocker. Then again, a two-week break for Nick Saban is typically a death sentence for his opponent.
No. 4 Oklahoma
Speaking of Mr. Trickett, he had quite the game against Oklahoma's secondary Saturday night. The West Virginia quarterback threw for 376 yards and two touchdowns, but his two interceptions both came in Oklahoma territory and wound up leading to Samaje Perine touchdown runs. Trickett's second pick came immediately after one from Travis Knight that gave West Virginia a short field with a chance to take the lead.
In the end, the Sooners wound up stretching their lead to 45-27 before a meaningless late touchdown finalized the score at 45-33. Perine rushed for 242 yards and four touchdowns on his 34 carries, perhaps giving himself an edge for a workhorse load the remainder of the season.
"You know about how powerful and strong he is, but he has great vision," Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops told reporters. "He has great stamina and is a very conditioned athlete. He works hard at his conditioning."
Perine had been sharing carries with Keith Ford and Alex Ross. Ford sat out Saturday, and his status for the next couple weeks is uncertain due to a fracture in his right leg. A true freshman, Perine was the less touted of Stoops' 2014 recruits. Joe Mixon was widely viewed as one of the two best high school running backs in the country with Leonard Fournette, but Mixon's season-long suspension after assaulting a woman opened the door for Perine to shine.
Oklahoma's biggest concerns remain at quarterback. Trevor Knight is slightly improved from his freshman season form but still battles with accuracy issues and poor decision-making. Knight, at this point, does not look like a steady enough quarterback to lead an undefeated team into the playoff.
We're going to get a good idea of the makeup for this Oklahoma team soon. The Sooners travel to TCU in two weeks in what should be a closer-than-advertised contest and then have games against Texas and Kansas State before their next bye. If they get through all three games unscathed, then maybe this is a title contender after all.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
