Houston Texans vs. New York Giants: Complete Week 3 Preview for Houston
Cautious optimism.
That's where I'm at as a fan of the Houston Texans heading into their Week 3 game against the New York Giants. Getting off to a 2-0 start has been great—especially while the Colts are 0-2—but I'm not ready to start printing playoff tickets just yet.
This is the fifth consecutive season that the Texans have started off 2-0; they went on to make the playoffs in the previous four years only twice. If it's not how you start but how you finish, then it merits pointing out that the Texans finished a combined 4-24 in 2010 and 2013 after starting off 2-0.
I'm not raining on any parades here; I'm just pointing out the obvious that nothing has been decided yet. The Texans are in great position to make a run at grabbing a playoff spot like the Kansas City Chiefs did last season, but it's too early to start making your hotel reservations.
The Texans defense has been impressive. The running game looks improved from last year, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing mistake free; however, most reasonable fans should be able to admit that Houston hasn't exactly beaten two Super Bowl favorites on its way to a 2-0 start.
A win is a win in the NFL, and they're all hard to come by, but I don't blame people for being a little skeptical until the Texans beat a team with a pulse. They'll have a chance to do so over the next four weeks as the quality of the competition starts to increase a little every week leading up to the big home game versus the Colts.
Not to look past this week because it's definitely not a guaranteed win, but if the Texans are able to defeat the Colts in Week 6 and have a record of 5-1 or better at that point, then it's safe to start getting excited about the run they're capable of making this year.
At 5-1 the Texans would probably have a three-game lead on the division and would only need to finish 5-5 over their tough remaining games to reach 10 wins and likely secure a playoff spot.
First things first—on Sunday they have to take care of business against a Giants team that has struggled over the first two weeks of the season.
Houston Texans Week 2 Recap
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Total domination.
From whistle to whistle, from quarter to quarter and from play to play, the Texans controlled their Week 2 game at Oakland in a convincing victory.
They ran the ball better than Oakland, won the turnover battle, dominated the time of possession and could have won the game by more than the 16-point margin if they had chose to pour it on. Not every aspect went perfectly, but enough did to claim an easy win.
"Per ESPN Stats & Info, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton are the only two QBs who haven't been sacked or committed a turnover so far. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 19, 2014"
One of those areas that did go perfectly was the running game with Arian Foster. The Texans veteran again topped the century mark with 138 yards on 28 carries; he ranks second and first, respectively, among all NFL backs in those two stats through two games this season.
Going forward, we should be a little concerned about the number of carries he is receiving. With 55 carries through two games, he's on pace for an absurd 440 carries, which would easily be a career high for Foster and be even more than Larry Johnson's total in 2006—416—the last time a back topped 400 carries.
Johnson's production fell off a cliff the following year.
If Bill O'Brien plans to bring back Foster next year, what he's doing with Foster's carry total has been irresponsible at best. Even if the team plans to cut Foster after this season, there's no way he'll be healthy for all 16 games with this big of a workload.
Foster is a workhorse for sure, but he's coming off back surgery and is frankly old for the position at age 28. I was a critic in the past of how much Gary Kubiak overused Foster, but through two games O'Brien has been even worse.
Both Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue played well during the preseason and are capable of carrying the ball when the only goal is to kill the clock. I don't see any legitimate reason why Foster should have carried the ball four times in the fourth quarter with a three-possession lead last week.
Foster's carry total from week to week should continue to be watched and scrutinized, but that's enough on that topic for now—let's get back to the good and bad from last week.
Another positive from the Oakland game was the improved run defense for the Texans. Just a week after allowing nearly six yards per carry to Washington, the Texans held the Raiders' running backs to just 43 yards on 13 carries.
Take away the 41-yard run from Derek Carr on a zone-read play, and the Texans held the Raiders to just 3.7 yards per carry—a big improvement from the week before.
The Texans also did a great job of forcing turnovers with two interceptions and four forced fumbles—they recovered two—which was a glaring weakness last season. In 2013 the Texans finished dead last in interceptions and second to last in fumbles recovered.
They had just 11 takeaways last season—seven interceptions and four fumbles recovered—but have already forced six turnovers this season.
One thing that could help the Texans defense force even more turnovers is the pass rush, which has been lacking. Through two games the Texans have just three sacks, ranking 21st in the league. They could have issues in pass rushing while Jadeveon Clowney is out.
Like last year, the team looked like a one-man pass rush without Clowney. As great as J.J. Watt is even he can't consistently the double- and triple-teams. Every opponent has a sound game plan: take away Watt and force another pass-rusher to beat you.
Will the Giants or any other team be concerned about Whitney Mercilus, Brooks Reed, Jared Crick or Jerrell Powe as a pass-rusher? Those guys haven't given them any reason to be at this point. Reed has played the run well and been solid in coverage, but the Texans have to get more out of that group in terms of a pass rush.
News and Notes
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Improved Play From Right Tackle Derek Newton
The former seventh-round pick has been a popular target for fans and media to pick at for poor play in the past, but Derek Newton came into camp this year healthier and in better shape than last year. Better conditioning has helped his technique from last year to this year, and it's showing up on the field.
From John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Bill O'Brien has been pleased with Newton's performance through two games.
"He’s worked extremely hard since I’ve been here. He had a very good offseason. He was here the whole time. He became stronger, and he came back in better condition.
I watched tape of last year. Certainly, all of those guys struggled at times, but last year’s over. Derek’s played very, very well in the first two games, and, hopefully, he can continue to do that.
"
As McClain mentioned in the article, Newton didn't allow Washington linebacker Ryan Kerrigan a single sack during the Week 1 game; Kerrigan had four sacks against Jacksonville the very next week. There are encouraging early signs from Newton.
Big Difference Between a 3-0 and 2-1 Record
From the department of the obvious: Starting off the season 3-0 is better than starting 2-1. While I think most Texans fans would have gladly taken 2-1 after three games if offered before the start of the season, their playoff odds would be more than 20 percent better with a 3-0 start compared to 2-1.
"Some players talked about game 3 being pivotal. Since 1990, 75.2% of teams that started 3-0 made playoffs. Drops to 52.8% for 2-1. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 19, 2014"
The Giants will also have a lot on the line as they try to avoid an 0-3 start; I'm not sure what the playoff odds are for a team with that start, but they can't be very high.
Texans Executing on Third Down
Another note from the department of the obvious: Teams that convert a high percentage of their third-down plays win more games. Along with turnovers, converting on third down was another one of my preseason concerns about Ryan Fitzpatrick, but through two games the Texans have executed very well.
"#Texans went 1-6 on 3rd down vs Wash in 1st half. Now have gone 15-23 on 3rd down in the last 6 QTs. HOU leads AFC in 3rd down conversions
— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) September 17, 2014"
Most of the credit should go to Arian Foster and the success of the running game, but Fitzpatrick has been more accurate and quicker with his decision-making than I've seen from him in the past. This week on the road in a stadium known for crowd noise and tough winds will be a challenge.
Injury Report
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- Shiloh Keo (Calf), Doubtful
- D.J. Swearinger (Elbow), Questionable
- Johnathan Joseph (Foot), Questionable
- Arian Foster (Hamstring), Probable
- Ben Jones (Ankle/Knee), Questionable
- C.J. Fiedorowicz (Foot), Questionable
- Jay Prosch (Hand), Probable
- Jadeveon Clowney (Knee), Out
- Andre Johnson (Ankle), Probable
- Louis Nix III (Wrist), Probable
Source was Pro Football Reference. Information as of the morning of September 20.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Duane Brown vs. Jason Pierre-Paul
No secret here that Pierre-Paul is the Giants' best pass-rusher, so how well Brown keeps him in check will be huge. Through two games the Texans haven't allowed a single sack and very few pressures, so the offensive line appears to be up for the challenge.
Pierre-Paul hasn't dominated since his amazing 2011 season, but he is a freak athlete, much like Jadeveon Clowney, who is capable of changing the game with a single big play.
Texans Outside Zone Runs vs. the Giants Linebackers
The Giants linebackers don't have a lot of experience and will be missing veteran Jon Beason on Sunday, which could lead to a big day for Arian Foster and the Texans running game.
Last week against Arizona—who was without its starting quarterback—the Giants gave up big gains on outside runs against a team they had to know would look to run the ball. According to Pro Football Reference, the Giants gave up 86 yards on just nine carries to the outside either right or left.
Nearly 10 yards per carry! Andre Ellington is a good back, but he's no Foster.
While he's not their leading receiver currently, Cruz is without a doubt the Giants' most talented receiver. He often plays out of the slot, which makes matching him up with a team's top cornerback difficult sometimes if that corner only plays on the outside.
The Texans, however, should be able to match up well with Cruz, given how often Kareem Jackson has been used in the slot this season. Jackson has played well this year—he had an interception last week—and most of the time he moves to the slot when they use a third corner with A.J. Bouye and Johnathan Joseph on the outside.
The Giants haven't run the ball well, and Eli Manning has proved to be mistake-prone; if Jackson can limit Cruz, it's hard to imagine the Giants will put up many points.
X-Factor of the Week: Every Potential Pass-Rusher Not Named J.J. Watt
I know this is supposed to be one player, but identifying the one Texans pass-rusher besides Watt who needs to step up is impossible; they all need to for the Texans to win.
While Clowney is out, Houston has to get more out of Mercilus, Reed, Crick and Powe, or the opposing quarterback will have all day when Watt is double- and triple-teamed. Manning has struggled, but most veterans can pick an opponent apart if given enough time.
Watt is the best defensive player in the league, but as we saw last year, not even he is capable of being a one-man gang. Manning will make mistakes and turn the ball over if the Texans get pressure and speed up his clock, but where the pressure will come from is a mystery as of now.
Prediction
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Call it a gut feeling, but I think this is the week we first see the turnover mistakes from Ryan Fitzpatrick. He's been very efficient so far, but going into a loud stadium for the first time this year with winds that could reach or exceed 20 mph will be tough.
Fitzpatrick doesn't have great arm strength, so once the Giants see that he can't push the ball downfield into the wind, expect them to play the Texans receivers tight and possibly jump a few short routes for interceptions.
As mentioned earlier, I'm also concerned about the Texans pass rush.
Eli Manning has been mistake-prone but could also slice Houston up if given enough time. The game plan in the secondary has been so far to play loose man and zone to keep everything in front of the defensive backs. That's a good strategy but one that could be exposed without a pass rush.
Robert Griffin III completed 27 of 31 short pass attempts in Week 1 against the Texans, and that was with Jadeveon Clowney on the field for about a quarter-and-a-half. Now on the road against a healthier and more experienced quarterback, the Texans can't afford to give up all those easy passes.
No pass rush combined with soft coverage seems like a good cure for what has ailed the Giants pass offense.
Prediction: Giants 20, Texans 17
Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and analysis: @sackedbybmac
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