Mariners Playoff Chances Hinge on the Arms of Two Veteran Lefties

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With player projections becoming more of a moot point as time progresses in the second half, I’ve decided to incorporate some articles that take a look at some of the key players integral to the playoff chances of playoff-hopeful teams. 

By no means are the players I single out the only factors to their respective teams chances. In these columns, you’ll be given a look at the real-life impact of these players, as well as digging deeper into their fantasy appeal.

The debut of this column will commence with a look at Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn, two lefties whose performance will greatly dictate a Mariner playoff run. After all, these two pitchers have been the reason why the Mariners, 48-43, even have a chance to sniff the playoffs. They are currently four games behind the Angels for first place in the AL West and five and a half back of the Yankees for the Wild Card spot.

Real Life Impact:

We all know that the Seattle Mariners have the true ace pitcher that every possible playoff team needs in Felix Hernandez. With a 10-3 record on the season and a 2.51 ERA, Hernandez is certainly going to be the least of the Mariners worries when it comes down to crunch time. It’s the pitchers supporting Hernandez in the rotation that will represent Seattle’s biggest chances to make the playoffs.

The hitting will certainly not be the carrying force behind the Mariners playoff run, which is fine.  Of course, offense is needed, but when you’re 28th in the league in runs scored, pitching is all that more important.  The Mariners have the 3rd best ERA in the majors at 3.67. 

They have the 3rd most errors in the league, as well, but their defense is rated fourth in the majors, in terms of team UZR, a metric that measures a players total defense in terms of their range, outfield arm, double play, and errors.  It's no wonder Mariners continue to be a darkhorse for the playoff race.

Jarrod Washburn is 7-6 on the year. However, he has a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Erik Bedard has a record of 5-2, with a 2.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. 

While the records don’t show it, these lefties have been crucial to the Mariners.  Washburn has thrown 13 quality starts out of the 18 games he started, while Bedard (who was injured for a month) has thrown six quality starts out of the 14 games he started.

Looking at the contending teams in the AL West, we can really see how important lefties are in limiting some of the opposition. Some players to point out are the Angels’ Chone Figgins, who has struggled against lefties this season and has a .242 BA. 

Vladimir Guerrero, now on the DL, hasn’t hit against lefties at all and has a .222 BA. Kendry Morales has batted .291 on the season, but only .219 against left-handed starters.

Taking a quick look at the Texas Rangers, the team has batted .249 against lefties this season. While Josh Hamilton has hit lefties well during the past three seasons, he still has a worse mark of .271 compared to .320 against righties. 

Nelson Cruz has hit significantly worse against lefties this season. He has hit .217 with only four of his 23 HR against lefties. To continue the trend, Hank Blalock has also hit far superior against righties this season with a .273 average, compared to just .208 against lefties.  

Fantasy Appeal:

Washburn: As I stated in my Around the Majors column earlier today, Jarrod Washburn has been reincarnated. He’s been simply unbelievable this season.

He currently has an ERA much lower than his career lowest of 3.15 in 2002, when he pitched with the Angels. His WHIP is also .08 lower than it was during that season.  

Washburn is striking out more batters than he has since 2002, and he’s walking less per nine innings than he’s ever had. Still, his strikeout totals of 5.67/9IP are nothing special.  Washburn is using a sinker a lot more this year and is reaping the benefits.

Washburn is also using luck to his advantage, with a BABIP of .259 and a rather high strand rate of 78.2 percent. Even with the new pitch, Washburn doesn’t have the stuff to get by night after night with stuff that isn’t overpowering.  

With an FIP of 3.78, a regression of almost a run is very likely for Washburn this season.  Even with a 3.78 ERA, he has been an unsung hero for the Mariners this season. However, I still wouldn’t expect the same type of dominance for fantasy purposes in the second half.

Bedard: Erick Bedard has always been a man of great talent. It’s just a matter of whether or not he can stay healthy.

This season, Bedard has missed a month of action, but he’s been very good when in there. The Mariners are going to need him healthy to form a punch atop the rotation.

Bedard’s ERA is at his lowest point of his career. His career best was 3.16, while playing for the Orioles. His WHIP of 1.16 is also the second best of his career. 

The difference between Bedard and Washburn is that Bedard can live with a rather high strand rate, which is 82.3 percent, because he’s striking out guys at a much higher clip.  His 9.32/9IP rate has really allowed him to live on the edge at times. The BABIP of .279 isn’t all that low, but should increase slightly in the second half.  

With an FIP of 3.42, a slight fall of nearly 0.8 in ERA should be expected. But a 3.42 ERA is certainly one worth using in fantasy leagues, especially with the stuff that Bedard has. While he may walk a few too many guys (3.23 per nine innings), he more than makes up with it with his pitching prowess and strikeout ability.

What do you guys think?  Will Washburn and Bedard be able to fuel the Mariners playoff run?