49ers vs. Cardinals: What Are Experts Saying About San Francisco?
The San Francisco 49ers have a key divisional matchup in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, and that has the experts out in force with their predictions and analyses.
Arizona being 2-0 at this point isn’t much of a surprise; the team was 10-6 last season and opened 2014 with a pair of winnable games—at home against San Diego and then beating the New York Giants on the road. San Francisco’s season has been more tumultuous to this point: the 49ers handled Dallas on the road before blowing a 17-point lead in Week 2 to the Chicago Bears.
The loss to Chicago, of course, has the pessimism raging within the 49er fanbase. This Week 3 showdown against Arizona could go a long way towards determining the outcome of the NFC West, or at least potential wild-card seeding, regardless of how good each team looked the previous week.
Let’s do a quick survey of opinions from around the Internet, and see how the experts think San Francisco will do in this key divisional road test.
Antonio Gonzalez: Derek Carrier Ready to Step in at Tight End
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One of the more important backups in this matchup might be San Francisco tight end Derek Carrier, who could find himself pressed into service against Arizona.
Starting 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is limping around with a severe ankle injury and is questionable. Backup Vance McDonald also left last week’s game with a knee injury. That would put Carrier in line to get some meaningful stats this week.
Carrier’s an interesting prospect; someone from a tiny college who’s basically clawed his way up from being an undrafted free agent to a member of San Francisco’s active roster. The game against Chicago was undeniably his best game ever in the NFL, as he caught three passes for 41 yards.
Carrier beat out Garrett Celek for the third tight end spot in preseason. He’s not much of a blocker, but he fits quite nicely into what NFL teams are looking for from modern-day tight ends.
Obviously it’s a major downgrade if Vernon Davis can’t go in Week 3, but I’m not sure the gap between Vance McDonald and Carrier is all that much. If Carrier is the second tight end against Arizona, I don’t think that’s a major problem.
Paul Gutierrez: 49ers Waiting on Anthony Davis at RT
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The 49ers still are waiting for their starting right tackle, Anthony Davis, to see the field in 2014. He had started every single game in his first four seasons, but a left hamstring injury has kept him on the bench so far.
His replacement has been Jonathan Martin, the ex-Dolphin who is looking for a new start in San Francisco. So far, it’s been a mixed bag for him. He was stellar against Dallas, helping to carve out holes in the running game for Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
Against Chicago, however, he struggled more—he was responsible for at least two of Chicago’s sacks and was flagged for a key false start in the first quarter.
Davis is still missing practice, too, and his absence against the Bears may have led to Colin Kaepernick’s back injury. The back issue is something that’s unlikely to keep Kaepernick out of action, but you never want to see your starting quarterback on the injury report.
Until Davis is ready to go, there will still be question marks on the right side of the line.
Jamey Eisenberg: Bust Alert on Colin Kaepernick
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I’ll let CBS’s Eisenberg say, in his own words, why Kaepernick might struggle against Arizona:
"The 49ers would love to forget the first game in Levi's Stadium, especially Kaepernick. He passed for 248 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 66 yards, but he also had three interceptions and lost a fumble in a loss against the Bears. He could always rebound this week against the Cardinals, and he has at least 250 passing yards and two touchdowns in each of his three career meetings with Arizona. But the Cardinals have done a nice job with their pass defense to open the season in containing Rivers and Eli Manning, and the 49ers could be without Vernon Davis (ankle). That would leave Kaepernick vulnerable, and another poor outing is possible on the road.
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There’s certainly reason to worry about Kaepernick, considering Chicago was the first team not based in Seattle to force him to throw multiple interceptions in a single game. Arizona’s pass defense is definitely very good, as well, with Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie starting at cornerback.
I’m not sure shutting the current incarnation of Eli Manning down is all that impressive, however—Manning seems to have lost his touch, having led the league in interceptions last year and currently leading the league again in 2014. It seems to be more a statement of basic competence rather than a great defensive effort to shut him down.
Football Outsiders currently ranks Arizona as only 12th best against the pass in 2014. While that is partially a byproduct of small sample size, I’m far more concerned about the Cardinals shutting down the running game than I am about them stopping the passing game.
Combine that with Kaepernick’s modest past success against Arizona, and I think the worries are overblown.
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Peter King: Kaepernick Is at Fault for Loss, Not Number of Penalties
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In his video mailbag, MMQB’s Peter King posited that it was Kaepernick’s turnovers, and not the sheer number of 49ers’ penalties, that cost San Francisco the game against Chicago. He points out that Kaepernick was “incredibly careless with the football," though he also makes sure to note that “all quarterbacks are going to have bad days” from time to time.
It would be hard to argue that Kaepernick isn’t largely at fault for the loss—if he throws even one fewer interception, the 49ers probably hold on to win that game. However, in such a collapse, it’s not really accurate to just blame one player and one set of plays. King is setting up a false dichotomy here.
Three times, the Bears failed to convert on third down, only to get second life by a 49er penalty. Those San Francisco infractions led directly to 14 points (as two were on one drive). If the Bears punt in those situations, the 49ers probably are in a better position later in the game. Pass less often and Kaepernick might not throw those interceptions.
I think there’s plenty of blame to go around for the loss to the Bears.
Ron Kroichick: Aldon Smith Sorely Missed on 49ers’ Pass Rush
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Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle points out that Corey Lemonier, Aldon Smith’s replacement while he serves a nine-game suspension, has yet to put up a single quarterback pressure this season. He goes on to write that if the 49ers can’t generate any more of a pass rush, Carson Palmer, Nick Foles and Alex Smith will feast on San Francisco’s defense.
He’s not entirely wrong. Other than the ageless Justin Smith, the 49ers have struggled to generate much of a pass rush in their first two games in 2014. It’s both the loss of Aldon Smith and of NaVorro Bowman that has significantly compromised the defense's ability to mount pressure, as none of the replacements have been able to produce at the level of Bowman and the fourth-year pro Smith.
I wrote about how the 49ers were able to destroy the Cardinals offensive line last season and the struggles the Cardinals have continued to have this season with three new starters on the line. It’s possible a trip to Arizona will cure what ails the 49ers pass rush.
It’s also possible that the 49ers simply had two poor pass-rushing games in a row. Two games is a very small sample size for making any firm declarations.
It is safe to say, however, that getting Smith and Bowman back in seven weeks will give this defense a boost.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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