San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills: What Are Experts Saying About San Diego?
The Week 3 clash between the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills is the matchup that few would have wanted to see a week ago.
Now the script has flipped—the Chargers are coming off of a big upset of the Seattle Seahawks after collapsing in Week 1 at Arizona, and the Bills are 2-0 despite pundits putting them in the cellar before the season even began.
Two teams that rose above expectations in Week 2 make for a compelling game on Sunday, and even though San Diego has a big advantage at the quarterback position, the Bills have playmakers on offense, defense and special teams.
Can the Chargers travel all the way to Buffalo and bring home a win, or will they disappoint after surprising last week? These five experts weighed in on how the Chargers are performing and what their chances are in Week 3, with a more varied bunch of answers than what we saw in Chargers vs. Seahawks previews.
Let's start with one of Bleacher Report's own, who thinks the Chargers are one of the NFL's 10 best teams after their Week 2 victory.
Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
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Are the Chargers the ninth-best team in the NFL? Bleacher Report's Matt Miller thinks so, saying the Chargers have “the NFL's most defining win of this early season” by upsetting the Seahawks. Their clock management and hard-hitting defense were two big factors in getting the team back to .500.
Miller ranked 1-1 San Diego five spots ahead of 2-0 Buffalo—a team that he says can win ballgames if EJ Manuel can be an average quarterback.
Despite the Bills having the better record, Miller is correct in putting the Chargers well ahead of them. Defeating a feared Seattle team might as well count for two wins, and they controlled the Cardinals for three quarters before the collapse.
The Bills have quality wins against the Bears and Dolphins but don't have the recent playoff pedigree the Chargers have. Miller, and many others, expect the Chargers to improve upon their record, while Buffalo might slow down after a hot start.
Right now, the Chargers have the better track record, and a win for them wouldn't shift power rankings drastically. A win for Buffalo, however, would create a shakeup of epic proportions, and the team would easily vault over San Diego in that scenario.
Eric D. Williams, ESPN
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With lead running back Ryan Mathews out for several weeks, Chargers reporter Eric D. Williams predicts in this video that Donald Brown will get the majority of carries in Buffalo, not Danny Woodhead.
This definitely makes sense, as Woodhead is best as a receiving back who doesn't have to worry about powering through the trenches. Brown is bigger than Woodhead and built more like Mathews, giving him the role of the team's bruiser. He should have fresh legs with only nine carries this season.
Williams also said that Brown's performance will be important for the future of the Chargers running game, noting that San Diego has averaged only 2.5 yards per carry this season, tied for worst in the NFL. He said the team has to manufacture better running lanes for Brown and Woodhead going forward.
However, the Chargers' running game struggles aren't due to a lack of execution or play-calling—the team simply lacks interior talent on the offensive line with center Nick Hardwick out for the year. The matchups haven't been favorable either, as the Seahawks and Cardinals were two of the best run defenses in the league last season.
Establishing the run is always important, but it isn't necessary for a Chargers win. San Diego led the Cardinals for the majority of Week 1, and it controlled the clock against Seattle with little help from the running game. Good runs will be merely a bonus versus the Bills.
Ricky Henne, Chargers.com
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Chargers.com managing editor Ricky Henne said San Diego is looking for more of the same from a defense that “wreaked havoc on the QB” against Seattle, specifically with pass-rushers Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram.
Henne is one of the first to give credit to a unit that has been under the radar through the beginning of the NFL season. Yes, the Chargers offense was the one that sustained long drives against Seattle, but a big reason for that was the defense getting Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch off the field so quickly.
San Diego's defense swarmed to the ball-carrier every play and rarely missed tackles—a big weakness in past seasons. Against C.J. Spiller and Sammy Watkins, the Bills' most dynamic offensive players, sound tackling will be even more crucial.
Henne also points out the play of Corey Liuget, saying the fourth-year defensive end has been stout this season with three tackles for loss and one sack.
Liuget has improved his discipline in run defense while still being one of the best pass-rushers at his position—he is tied for second among 3-4 defensive ends with three quarterback hits, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He could terrorize Buffalo's guards, who have struggled this season.
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Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports
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NFL Insider Jason La Canfora thinks the loss of Mathews won't hurt San Diego, due to the team's strong backups in Woodhead and Brown.
While Mathews didn't light up defenses in Weeks 1 and 2, he is easily San Diego's most talented runner when healthy. Brown is a viable replacement for a month or two, but if the Chargers are deep into the season without the 2011 Pro Bowler, things could get dicey. Brown has never started more than eight games in a season.
La Canfora also pointed out that the Chargers' receivers have had a slow start to the season. Keenan Allen leads all Chargers wide receivers with 92 receiving yards this season, which ranks 58th among all NFL players.
Should this stat cause concern? Absolutely not—the Chargers' receivers have not been great fantasy options under Mike McCoy, and that won't change this season.
Allen is the team's No. 1 receiver, and he should see more targets after drawing Patrick Peterson's coverage in Week 1 and Richard Sherman's in Week 2. Malcom Floyd's statistics fluctuate from week to week as Rivers' deep threat. Eddie Royal should honestly be featured less than he has been.
The Chargers target running backs and tight ends in the passing game more frequently than other teams, which results in unimpressive statistics for their receivers. Allen won't be contained for much longer, but don't expect a statistical leap from Floyd or Royal—after all, Antonio Gates still exists.
Justin Neuman, Bleacher Report
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Bleacher Report’s Justin Neuman knows how effective Gates still is as a tight end. He said for the Bills to have a chance against the Chargers, they must know where he is on the field at all times.
If Buffalo's defense can keep Gates quiet, they can keep San Diego’s passing attack quiet. That's easier said than done.
Neuman said rookie linebacker Preston Brown could draw Gates in coverage, as he (6’2”) is better equipped to cover him than safety Da’Norris Searcy (5’11”) is. Brown is likely Buffalo's best option there, but he struggled against Chicago in coverage before bouncing back in the Miami game. As a rookie, consistency won't be his forte this season. Gates will take advantage of that.
Neuman also pointed out the Chargers' toughest task on Sunday—containing defensive tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus.
He isn't lying. San Diego's strengths on the line are its run-blocking offensive tackles, but the interior is flimsy at best. Williams and Dareus are two of the best at their position in stuffing the run and rushing the passer.
Quick passes and putting the running backs in pass protection should alleviate some concerns, but the Chargers can only do so much here. It is their biggest question mark for Sunday.
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