Mark Blaudschun's Blitz: Jameis Winston Trouble Leaves Florida State Vulnerable
They are the defending national champions. They have won 28 of their last 30 football games and 18 in a row. They have not lost since Nov. 24, 2012. They have last year's Heisman Trophy winner. They carry the swagger that great teams wear as comfortably as their uniforms.
And yet the perception exists that Jimbo Fisher's Florida State Seminoles may not be this year's best team. Perhaps, instead, it is Oregon, which has won its first three games by a combined score of 156-54. Or maybe the SEC, after having its string of seven consecutive national championships snapped last season, will re-establish itself on top after starting the season with seven teams in the AP's top 15 after three weeks.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Is the burden of being the defending national champion too much for the Seminoles?
Or are they simply not as good as they were a year ago?
Certainly, with the latest Jameis Winston escapade resulting in the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback being benched for Saturday night's game against Clemson, Florida State's road back to the title game has already hit a bump. And if the 'Noles aren't careful, an entire season's dream could disappear before halftime.
What's at stake is considerable. The winner will have essentially a two-game edge over the loser (via the head-to-head win), as well as history on its side. The victor of this game has also won the last three ACC championships.
Even before Winston was suspended for yelling a sexually explicit comment in the Florida State student union earlier this week, the Seminoles did not seem nearly as intimidating.
A team that beat 12 of its 14 opponents by an average of 45 points last season (only Boston College, which lost by 14 during the regular season, and Auburn, which lost by three in the BCS title game, could stay with the Seminoles through an entire game) has looked beatable this year.
| Year | National Champ | Final AP Ranking Next Season |
| 2013 | Florida State | ? |
| 2012 | Alabama | 7 |
| 2011 | Alabama | 1 |
| 2010 | Auburn | Unranked |
| 2009 | Alabama | 10 |
| 2008 | Florida | 3 |
| 2007 | LSU | Unranked |
| 2006 | Florida | 13 |
| 2005 | Texas | 13 |
| 2004 | USC | 2 |
| 2003 | LSU | 16 |
An opening matchup with Oklahoma State resulted in a 37-31 win that wasn't decided until the final seconds. One week later, a supposed cream-puff game versus FCS opponent Citadel saw Florida State win, but not dominate, in a 37-12 final that would have been a halftime score last season.
Even if the Seminoles beat Clemson, there are potential axle-busting potholes the national championship bus must avoid. A back-to-back meeting with Notre Dame and away to Louisville two weeks later awaits in October. Then there are annual meetings with in-state rivals Miami on the road and home to Florida, sandwiched around a potentially tricky meeting with Boston College in November.
And then there are the unknown factors: Is FSU still motivated? Are the 'Noles prepared for the chore of being every opponent's "game of the season"? How much have Winston's off-field problems affected what the Seminoles do on the gridiron?
Former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy, who quarterbacked the Crimson Tide for two seasons (including a 2009 national title), and is now working for the SEC television network, knows the burden of playing games in the season after a 14-0 run.
"It's always extremely difficult to navigate the schedule when you are getting every team's best shot," McElroy told Bleacher Report in a text message. "We would show up to play on Saturday and have a game plan that is designed to beat man-to-man coverage, and then sure enough, they would play zone the whole game.
"The pressure remains the same and the expectations aren't that different, especially playing at Alabama, but the way teams prepare for you changed significantly in the year following the national championship."
Playing without its best player will add to Florida State's challenge against a team desperate to avoid a 1-2 start following its season-opening loss to Georgia. With the added spice of a rivalry developing into an SEC type of feud, the Seminoles are traversing some risky ground that could see their season take a fall.
Trouble Ahead for the Tigers?
In surviving 20-14 at Kansas State on Thursday night, Auburn revealed more about what it isn't than what it is.
More specifically…
- Auburn is not close to being the best team in the country.
- Auburn may not be the best team in the SEC.
- Auburn may not even be the best team in the highly regarded (for now) SEC West.
True, the Tigers did what a No. 5 team had to do against a school ranked 15 spots lower—win. But look a little closer and you'll see a game in which Kansas State squandered 19 points, including three missed (but makeable) field goals, a fumble that put Auburn in position for a field goal of its own and a lost touchdown on a pass that bounced off Kansas State wide receiver Tyler Lockett's shoulder pads and into the arms of Auburn defensive back Jonathan Jones.
And that vaunted Auburn running game, which had rushed for more than 200 yards in each of its last 13 games—the longest such streak in the FBS—was held to 128 yards.
In short, Auburn looked very beatable.
Still, the Tigers got through, in large part because quarterback Nick Marshall proved he could make clutch throws.
Other than the win, that may be the best news Auburn gets for some time, as the Tigers face a minefield of a schedule ahead.
No. 8 LSU looms on Oct. 4 before a date with No. 14 South Carolina on Oct. 25. Then the schedule really gets tough with back-to-back-to-back games against No. 10 Ole Miss (on the road), No. 6 Texas A&M and No. 13 Georgia (on the road) before the regular-season finale at No. 3 Alabama.
Auburn needs to root for Kansas State to win the remainder of its games and finish with no worse than a 10-2 record, with one of those 10 wins coming against either Oklahoma or Baylor.
Here's why: Give Auburn the benefit of the doubt and say the Tigers only lose two of their remaining games. If K-State can finish first or second in the Big 12 race, the win Thursday night will look much more impressive to the selection committee than it does right now.
And as we all know, perceptions matter when it comes to the selection process.
Countdown to the Final Four
It's never too early to gaze into the crystal ball and predict how the playoff matchups will shake out were the Final Four to be set today.
Last Four In
- Oregon: May be the best team in the country.
- Florida State: Jameis or no Jameis, until someone beats them, the Seminoles are a force.
- Alabama: Best team in the SEC?
- Oklahoma: How can the Sooners be a sleeper?
Last Four Out
- Auburn: Can stake a claim to being the best team in SEC West, but the schedule may speak louder.
- Georgia: You can argue the Bulldogs were better than South Carolina but played dumber.
- Michigan State: 12-1 gets the Spartans in the playoffs.
- Baylor: Paper Bears thus far, but wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas would make them Final Four tough.
Race to the Playoffs
We are only three weeks into the college football season, and we are down to 41 teams (out of 128) who have legitimate chances of making it into college football's Final Four.
Teams: 128
Teams Eliminated: 87
Teams Remaining: Cincinnati, Florida State, NC State, Syracuse, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Marshall, BYU, Notre Dame, Oregon, California, Washington, Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona State, USC, Utah, Arizona, UCLA, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU.
You've Got to Be Kidding
1. Five teams in the Top 10 from one division? That's the SEC West, where Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss all checked in among the nation's 10 best AP teams heading into Week 4.
How good is the division? Going into this Saturday's games, the SEC West had a combined record of 20-1, with Arkansas the only division team to lose a game.
The division will lose some of its punch as teams play each other, but it would not be a stunner to see three SEC West teams in the final Top 10, and even two in the Final Four.
2. In the latest FBS quarterback efficiency rankings put out by the NCAA, Seth Russell led the likes of Oregon's Marcus Mariota (No. 4), Texas A&M's Kenny Hill (No. 9) and FSU's Jameis Winston (No. 28).
Who's Seth Russell? Baylor's backup quarterback. But the Bears have skated over SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo so easily that Russell is getting as much playing time, and doing as much with it, as the starter, Bryce Petty.
3. Remember when Nebraska and Miami used to be a really big game with a lot at stake? Well, the two teams will meet Saturday for the first time since they played for the national championship in the 2002 Rose Bowl. Since '04, neither team has won a conference championship or been ranked in the Top 10 in the final polls.
Think about that: Miami and Nebraska haven't been relevant in the national title conversation for the past 10 seasons.
The future may be brighter, but it will take a while. Nebraska has been caught in a cycle of nine- and 10-win seasons under Bo Pelini, which is good but not good enough to become a player in the Big Ten or nationally.
Miami, on other hand, is just emerging from the fog of NCAA sanctions and is going to need time for Al Golden to have a fair shot at recreating the magic at The U.
4. I know teams have bye weeks. But what about leagues? The Big 12, which has 10 teams, will see six schools sitting this week. The two nonconference games: Auburn at Kansas State and Central Michigan at Kansas. Oklahoma travels to West Virginia in the Big 12 opener for the Sooners.
All conferences have weeks in which some of their teams take byes. USC and UCLA are both idle this week in the Pac-12. The SEC has three teams—Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee—off. But to have the majority of the conference idle is just strange.
Extra Points
So who's going to play quarterback when Alabama opens its SEC season against Florida on Saturday?
If you listen to Tide coach Nick Saban, does the phrase "fence-sitting" come to mind. "We're going to play Blake [Sims], and we'll always evaluate and see how it goes," Saban said at his midweek press conference.
"We've got a lot of confidence in Jake (Jacob Coker). If we need to play Jake, we'll certainly have no problems putting him in there and allowing him to play."
The ACC has had a solid season of upsets thus far, highlighted by Virginia Tech's win at then-No. 8 Ohio State and Boston College's win over then-No 9 USC. The last time that two unranked ACC teams beat two ranked teams in the same season was in 1981, when Georgia Tech upset No. 1 Alabama and Clemson downed No. 4 Georgia.
Game of the Week
Oklahoma at West Virginia
At the start of the season, this looked like a walkover game for the Sooners. Now? With the game in Morgantown, West Virginia may prove ready for prime time.
The Mountaineers are dangerous at home and can play with anyone (witness their close loss to Alabama). Also, Oklahoma might have a letdown after its SEC showdown with Tennessee last week.
The Pick: West Virginia 28, Oklahoma 24
Mark Blaudschun covers college football as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has more than three decades of experience covering sports at a variety of newspapers in New Jersey, The Dallas Morning News and The Boston Globe. Follow him on Twitter @blauds.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
