Bobby Rainey's Emergence as a Fantasy Stud Makes Doug Martin Expendable

For Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith, there seems to be an uncertainty about what to do at the running back position. Fantasy owners, however, should have no qualms about how to handle the current situation involving Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin. 

With Martin sitting out last week's game against St. Louis, Rainey's star took off, as he racked up 144 yards on 22 carries. The Buccaneers are coming back on a short week with a Thursday night game against Atlanta, though no one has a good handle on what will happen in the backfield. 

According to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, the solution for Smith's running back conundrum may be a compromise if Martin is able to go in Week 3:

However, former NFL offensive lineman and current media personality Ross Tucker posted on Twitter a quote from Stroud that illuminates something outsiders could tell after Week 2:

The trend of going with the hot hand at running back is nothing new. It's different in this case because there's no evidence to suggest Martin warrants being a starter anymore. 

Martin entered the NFL as a 2012 first-round pick, rare for the position because of how its evaluated in today's game. He justified the Buccaneers' faith by rushing for 1,454 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and scoring 12 total touchdowns. 

Since 2013, Martin has been plagued by injuries and has underwhelmed in his performances when he has been on the field. He started six games last year and averaged 3.6 yards per carry. only breaking the 100-yard barrier once. 

His 2014 season didn't get off to a better start, running for nine yards on nine carries before leaving the game against Carolina with a knee injury. 

Meanwhile, Rainey enters this game against Atlanta with some recent success. He also set a career high with 163 rushing yards and three total touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 10 last year. 

Smith has said leading up to this game, via Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com, that his plan is still to use multiple running backs to give opposing defenses a different look. 

"We want to play more than one running back, two, maybe three," Smith said, "That's why we've had three (active) every time we could. That's just making our running back position stronger."

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

There is a certain level of posturing that every NFL coach uses to keep opponents off guard. Nothing that has happened, dating back to 2013, suggests that Martin deserves to be the No. 1 running back in Tampa Bay. 

The good news, moving back to the fantasy side, is that Smith's comments suggest he's not committing to Martin as the lead guy in a multiback system even if he plays in Week 3. Rainey gave that offense an added dimension it was missing in Week 1. 

Tampa Bay's passing game hasn't taken off like anyone anticipated. Josh McCown looks more like a backup who played well in a small sample size last year. He has yet to break 200 yards in a game and has more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two). 

With that kind of inept passing game, running the ball becomes more critical to success. Until Rainey proves he's incapable of handling a full starter's workload, like the 22 carries he got last week, Smith would be foolish resorting to an even split with Martin also getting involved. 

As a result, even though it's hard to cut bait with someone who was a borderline first-round pick in fantasy drafts, according to Fantasy Pros, Martin becomes expendable. His value will never be lower than it is right now, so trading him won't net you the kind of return you'd expect for a player whose average draft position was 11th overall. 

Playing the waiver wire is critical at a time like this. If you were following it closely, Rainey should have been on your team long before we got to Thursday night's matchup with Atlanta. If not, you better be watching games closely this weekend to see if any replacement running backs have big games. 

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