Complete Predictions for Nerlens Noel's Role, Statistics with Philadelphia 76ers

Now that Nerlens Noel is back at full strength, the Philadelphia 76ers' rebuild is officially ready to get underway. 

Although a couple of key pieces won't be joining the fray this season, Noel will attempt to validate his status as a franchise building block when the 2014-15 season tips off.  

And with 6-1 Rookie of the Year odds, per Odds Shark, there's no shortage of hype surrounding Noel's highly anticipated debut. 

However, we need to maintain perspective. Noel is still just 20 years old, and his offensive repertoire is undergoing major reconstruction. 

That said, Noel's defensive impact alone should keep him active in a Rookie of the Year race that's expected to be dominated by Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. 

So as training camp approaches, we're here to provide realistic expectations and a complete slate of projections for Noel's inaugural campaign. 

Offensive Fit

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Offensively, Nerlens Noel is a center—at least for the time being. 

While the Philadelphia 76ers hope to develop Noel into a multidimensional offensive weapon in the mold of a 4, the process is going to be an arduous one. 

Assistant coach Chad Iske discussed that long development journey with Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix during Las Vegas Summer League: 

"

We’re trying to figure [Noel’s offense] out. We’re spending a lot of time on his free-throw shooting. In our offense we play through the bigs on the elbow a decent amount and we have found that he is a gifted passer. He is so quick with the first dribble, too, that he has an ability to get to the rim. But it’s going to take time.

"

Summer league revealed Noel's jump shot is still a major work in progress. But as Iske noted, Noel should be afforded opportunities to blow past slower defenders with his dribble-drive, which will help mask his deficiencies as a shooter outside the paint. 

However, Noel's free-throw shooting could wind up being a surprising bright spot. 

Head coach Brett Brown famously deconstructed and recalibrated Noel's shooting mechanics throughout last season, and the fruits of their labor were evident during summer league. 

While his catch-and-shoot jumper is still in its infancy, Noel did well to knock down 17 of his 21 free throws during summer league play.

Considering he shot 52.9 percent from the stripe at Kentucky, any final tally over 60 percent would represent a win for Noel and the Sixers. 

After struggling to post up conventionally against more physically imposing bigs during summer league, Noel figures to do most of his damage via second chances, lobs, transition opportunities and the occasional dribble-drive. 

Defensive Fit

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Nerlens Noel possesses tremendous defensive versatility, and it was on full display throughout the summer. 

A shot-blocking terror thanks to his tremendous blend of quickness and athleticism, don't be surprised if Noel climbs up the league's blocks leaderboard at a rapid pace. 

Just consider this note from former teammate Thaddeus Young, via CSNPhilly.com's Dei Lynam, regarding Noel's quickness on the blocks: 

"

He is one of the quickest guys I have seen off his feet. One time we were going at each other and he altered my shot and I got the rebound and he was already off his feet again. He can probably jump three or four times before somebody jumps twice.

"

But as mentioned previously, Noel is hardly bulky enough to combat the size of more muscular centers.  

In an interview with Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix, assistant coach Chad Iske touched on those concerns: 

"

We did see a rapid change in him from the beginning to the end of last season. There is a huge difference in the definition of his chest and his arms. The legs are skinny and they will probably always be a little skinny. But he has great speed and that will be an asset.

"

That lack of strength in Noel's base could present the Sixers with a troubling dilemma. Should he predominantly guard power forwards, they risk marginalizing his biggest strength—challenging shots at the rim. 

Make no mistake about it, though: Noel's length represents an asset away from the rim, too, but it's not as valuable when he's not altering post touches and prospective penetrators. 

“When the guards start being a little more timid on their drives and start shooting a lot more floaters, then I know I’m the reason,” Noel told NBC Sports' Kurt Helin during Las Vegas Summer League. 

A more complete picture will be available once Joel Embiid is healthy, but for the time being, expect Noel to oscillate between the 4 and the 5 as he learns how to maximize strengths and eliminate weaknesses at each position. 

Minutes

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While Blake Griffin could theoretically serve as a historical case study for rookies who sat out a season after being drafted, he played an outrageous 38 minutes per game during his inaugural campaign. 

Nerlens Noel shouldn't approach that gaudy number, which still represents a career high for Griffin four years later. 

A more appropriate and responsible estimate for Noel's nightly playing time should fall in the range of 26 to 30 minutes, particularly after the flat-topped center suffered such a nasty ACL injury during his freshman season at Kentucky. 

Perhaps more important, though, will be Noel's status on the second night of back-to-backs. 

While the team has yet to publicly discuss any sort of season-long maintenance plan, it's worth noting Noel did sit out some back-to-backs during summer league play. 

With the Philadelphia 76ers focusing on the long-term health of a key building block, don't expect Brett Brown and the club's coaching staff to push Noel unnecessarily. 

Role

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Given the state of the Philadelphia 76ers' roster, the spotlight figures to shine quite intensely on such a significant developmental centerpiece. 

While Michael Carter-Williams is tasked with lifting the Sixers offense out of the efficiency cellar, Noel will try to keep the team's lackluster interior defense afloat.

As a result, the intrigue lies in Noel's ability to become a defensive stalwart.

"Forget about his skills at this point—based on his physical tools, athleticism, motor and instincts alone, Noel should still be capable of making an impact in the paint," Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman wrote. 

Noel is still raw in a number of areas, and his athletic gifts will likely prop him up throughout the 2014-15 season. But if he can start to lay the foundation for a prosperous future by displaying proficiency as a pick-and-roll defender and active body around the basket, the Sixers won't be afforded many opportunities to complain. 

Final Stat Projections

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Nerlens Noel 2014-15 Projected Per-Game Stats 

• Minutes 28.2
• Points: 10.4  
• Rebounds: 6.9
• Assists: 1.8  
• Blocks: 2.0  
• Steals: 1.2  
• Field-Goal Percentage: 53.4  
• Free-Throw Percentage: 61.6  
• Player Efficiency Rating: 15.1  

As we've alluded to, Nerlens Noel figures to make his most immediate contributions as a rim protector. That will be evident on tape and in the box score.

In that vein, Noel may very well approach the league's top five in blocks per game—particularly if the Philadelphia 76ers play at a pace reminiscent of last season's league-leading 99.2 possessions-per-48-minute clip. 

And after he swatted 4.4 shots per night during his lone season at Kentucky, two blocks per game feels well within the realm of possibility. 

Sticking with defense, Noel also projects as an instant-impact contributor in terms of generating steals. 

Not only is his foot speed top-notch, but Noel's hands move at a frenetic pace when wreaking havoc in the pick-and-roll or on the perimeter. 

Remember, Noel is the only college player since 1997-98 to average at least four blocks and two steals for a single season, according to Sports-Reference.com. 

For points and rebounds, though, don't expect Noel to blow expectations out of the water.  

With his repertoire of post moves still in need of major refinement and the jump shot a risky proposition, Noel should just barely crack double digits in the scoring column. 

When you take Noel's slender figure into account, double-double averages may be a couple of years away.

All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.