Updated 2014 MLB Playoff Odds with 1 Week Remaining
There is just over one week left in the 2014 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture has started to take shape, there is still a lot to be decided between now and October.
In the American League, the East and West divisions have been clinched, but the Central is still a dog fight between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Whoever loses out there will battle the Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners and perhaps Cleveland Indians for the two wild-card spots.
Over in the National League, the East has also been locked down, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are close to at least clinching a playoff spot in the West. The San Francisco Giants are still very much in the hunt for the NL West title, though they currently sit atop a wild-card heap that also includes the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, those two are both chasing the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.
What follows is a look at each team's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:
- Current standings
- Recent performance
- Remaining schedule
So with the regular season set to wrap up Sunday, Sept. 28, here is a division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all 30 MLB teams.
NL East
1 of 6
Contenders
Washington Nationals (88-64, CLINCHED NL EAST)
The Nationals became the first NL team to clinch a playoff spot on Tuesday night, and they did it in Atlanta against a Braves team that was tied for first place at the All-Star break.
The one-two punch of Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann has been fantastic of late, and along with Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark, this team has the pitching to make some serious noise come October. The Nats are no slouches at the plate either, having scored an NL-high 263 runs (4.46 RPG) here in the second half.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent
Non-Contenders
Atlanta Braves (76-76)*
Miami Marlins (74-78)
New York Mets (73-80)
Philadelphia Phillies (70-83)
*Like the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, you could still consider the Braves to be fringe contenders at this point, but currently sit six games back for the No. 2 wild-card spot with 10 to play, we're putting their odds at less than one percent.
NL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals (85-68, NL Central leader)
The Cardinals have once again orchestrated a late-season push to put themselves in a great position to be playing in October, as a 14-5 stretch has turned a one-game deficit in the NL Central into a 2.5-game lead.
With John Lackey dealing with dead arm and Michael Wacha still rounding into form, the rotation is a bit of a question mark as far as October is concerned, but the Cards have enough depth to hold on and secure the division title behind Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller.
Postseason Chances: 98 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (82-70, 2.5 back in NL Central, 3.5 up for No. 2 NL Wild Card)
With 11 wins in their last 13 games, the Pirates are as hot as any team in baseball, and they have built a nice lead for the No. 2 wild-card spot in the process.
A few months ago, the trio of Milwaukee, Atlanta and Cincinnati would have looked like a tough draw to close out the season, but now it looks like a favorable matchup. One thing worth mentioning: The Pirates' last seven games are on the road, where they have struggled to a 33-41 record this season. That's worth keeping in the back of your mind before locking them in to that final playoff spot.
Postseason Chances: 81 percent
Milwaukee Brewers (79-74, 6.0 back in NL Central, 3.5 back in NL WC)
As recently as Aug. 26, the Brewers were given a 93 percent chance of reaching the playoffs by MLB.com's Postseason Probability tracker. That number has since plummeted to just 17 percent, and while we'll give them slightly higher odds thanks to their three games left head-to-head with the Pirates, that series this weekend is essentially their last chance to right the ship.
Every game is a must-win at this point, and their rotation stacks up so that it will be Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza and Wily Peralta taking the ball for this crucial weekend series. If they can come out of Pittsburgh down 2.5 games, they might just have a chance with the Reds and Cubs on the schedule to close out the season.
Postseason Chances: 23 percent
Non-Contenders
Cincinnati Reds (71-82)
Chicago Cubs (68-85)
NL West
3 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (87-66, NL West leader)
The Dodgers' magic number to clinch a playoff spot currently sits at two, as they could potentially punch their ticket on Friday night with a win and a Brewers loss.
However, the NL West is far from decided, as the Dodgers currently lead the Giants by just 2.5 games and are set to begin a three-game series against them on Monday in Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will take the ball in the final two games of that series as the Dodgers look to lock down consecutive division titles.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
San Francisco Giants (84-68, 2.5 back in NL West, 2.0 up for No. 1 NL Wild Card)
When they started the season 43-21, the Giants looked like the best team in baseball. When they struggled to a 20-36 record over their next 56 games, they appeared to be headed for an early offseason.
It's all come full circle, though, as they are currently riding a 21-11 hot streak down the home stretch and are essentially a lock to at least claim a wild-card spot at this point. That's all thanks to the lights-out duo of Madison Bumgarner and Jake Peavy and a second-half MVP push from catcher Buster Posey.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Non-Contenders
San Diego Padres (71-81)
Arizona Diamondbacks (62-91)
Colorado Rockies (62-91)
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AL East
4 of 6
Contenders
Baltimore Orioles (92-60, CLINCHED AL EAST)
The first team in the American League to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Orioles are just 2.5 games behind the Los Angeles Angels for home-field advantage in the AL.
Clinching early gives them plenty of time to align their rotation for the American League Division Series and assess a fairly muddled bench and bullpen to decide who will fill out the postseason roster.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent
Non-Contenders
New York Yankees (78-74)*
Toronto Blue Jays (77-75)*
Tampa Bay Rays (74-79)
Boston Red Sox (66-87)
*The Yankees and Blue Jays have not technically been eliminated yet, but at five and six games back in the wild-card standings, respectively, with 10 left to play, it's fair to say their chances of reaching the postseason have dwindled to less than one percent at this point.
AL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
Detroit Tigers (84-68, AL Central leader)
With a 10-6 record and plus-19 run differential this month, the Tigers are playing some solid baseball down the stretch, and they will have a chance to pick up some breathing room when they square off against the Royals this weekend.
The bullpen remains a legitimate concern after Joe Nathan blew his seventh save of the season earlier this week. Add in the fact that it's Kyle Lobstein and Justin Verlander slated to start the first two games of the KC series, and this thing is far from wrapped up for the Tigers.
Postseason Chances: 87 percent
Kansas City Royals (83-68, 0.5 back in AL Central, 0.5 up for No. 1 AL Wild Card)
This weekend's series against the Tigers will probably be the most meaningful baseball that has been played in Kansas City since the 1985 World Series, as it could very well wind up deciding the AL Central division race.
The Tigers have dominated the head-to-head series this season at 11-5, and that includes a 6-1 mark in Kansas City, but the stakes are undoubtedly raised here. The Royals close out the season with seven games on the road, where they are slated to face Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians and Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, so it won't be a cake walk following the Detroit series.
Postseason Chances: 85 percent
Cleveland Indians (79-73, 5.0 back in AL Central, 4.0 back in AL Wild Card)
At five games back in the AL Central and four games back in the wild card, the Indians are obviously still on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, but that does give them two potential ways in, so it improves their chances a bit here.
They face the Royals for three games at home to begin next week, so there is still one last golden opportunity to make up some ground. A lot else will have to break right, and they remain the biggest long shot we can still call a contender at this point, but it's not impossible.
Postseason Chances: Seven percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (69-83)
Minnesota Twins (65-87)
AL West
6 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Angels (95-58, CLINCHED AL WEST)
It's fitting that it was an Oakland loss that officially clinched the AL West for the Angels, as less than a month ago, those two teams sat tied atop the AL West standings. An 18-5 stretch since Aug. 25, coupled with the A's late-season slide, has turned that tie into a whopping 11.5-game lead.
The oblique injury to Matt Shoemaker is a serious concern, but clinching early gives them a chance to rest guys, including him, so that's a nice added bonus. That said, they won't want to squander their 2.5-game lead for the best record in the AL over the next week.
Postseason Chances: 100 percent
Oakland Athletics (83-69, 1.0 up No. 2 AL Wild Card)
Closer Sean Doolittle put it perfectly after the A's squandered a ninth-inning lead on Wednesday night in a loss to the last-place Texas Rangers.
"It's going to be a turning point one way or another. After the season is over, are we going to look back and point to tonight and be like, 'This is the game where finally the wheels came off for good,' or are we going to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off and talk about how resilient we are as a team and how we were able to overcome a game like this and still get it done?
"
They then proceeded to lose the next day as well, as the lowly Rangers completed a sweep in Oakland. As a result, they lost their hold on the No. 1 wild-card spot and are now 6-14 in their last 20 games.
No lead is safe for them until they clinch—certainly not a one-game lead—but the Mariners have problems of their own right now, so the A's still have a very real chance of sneaking into the postseason.
Postseason Chances: 72 percent
Seattle Mariners (82-70, 1.0 back in AL Wild Card)
The Mariners have leaned hard on the best pitching staff in baseball (3.03 ERA) this season, and it's that pitching staff that will likely decide whether or not they reach the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Felix Hernandez remains one of the game's true aces, and rookie James Paxton has been a stud of late, but veterans Chris Young (4 GS, 0-2, 5.87 ERA) and Hisashi Iwakuma (5 GS, 2-2, 9.28 ERA) have both been hit hard lately.
It's put up or shut up time as they close out the season against the Astros, Blue Jays and Angels, as the Mariners currently find themselves on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. That being said, with the way Oakland is sliding, those two teams' chances could be flipped by the end of the weekend.
Postseason Chances: 49 percent
Non-Contenders
Houston Astros (67-86)
Texas Rangers (60-92)
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