Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Florida Bulls Complete Game Preview
The Wisconsin football team looks to extend its home nonconference winning streak when it takes on the South Florida Bulls at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday at noon ET. One week before the Big Ten schedule starts, the Badgers have a few kinks to work out, particularly in the passing game, as the weather gets colder and the teams get better.
The Badgers (3-1, 0-0 Big Ten) are coming off a dominant performance against Bowling Green, particularly by their running backs and offensive line, as they picked up 644 rushing yards on just 60 carries (10.7 yards per carry) and let starting quarterback Tanner McEvoy throw only one pass in the second half before being replaced by Bart Houston.
One area of concern is the passing game, as Alex Erickson was once again the only wide receiver to record a catch, hauling in two balls for 10 yards. While this was hardly a concern against Bowling Green, it could be against a Nebraska or Iowa.
The Bulls (2-2, 1-0 American) are coming off a huge conference win against UConn, 17-14 at home. On the strength of a committed rushing attack and a strong defense, South Florida beat its first FBS team since it defeated UConn last season on October 12.
South Florida's defense held UConn to a single offensive touchdown on 10 drives, opening with a turnover and then forcing eight straight punts before finally conceding a score in the waning moments of the fourth quarter; however, the Bulls will be facing a much more difficult test this week on the road against the Badgers.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory, players to watch and a prediction for the first-ever meeting between these two teams.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Run the ball
The Badgers are running the ball at an incredible, unsustainable rate. Last game, four players notched at least 94 yards including one who had never played running back in more than a decade. Wisconsin is averaging an astounding 359.7 rushing yards per game, tops in the country.
Melvin Gordon ran for 253 yards on only 13 carries against Bowling Green, adding five touchdowns to his day to boot. Bowling Green's defense is hardly the Steel Curtain or an early aughts Ravens defense, but if you can average 19.5 yards per carry against anyone, even in practice, that's impressive.
Corey Clement quietly had a very solid game, toting the ball 16 times for 111 yards and two scores, while quarterback Tanner McEvoy rushed 11 times for an astounding 158 yards and a touchdown too. Throw in Dare Ogunbowale, a converted defensive back, who piled up 94 yards on 14 carries, and that's a record-setting day on the ground.
When all was said and done, the Badgers picked up 644 yards on the ground, a school record, on just 60 carries—good for more than a first down (10.7) per carry. South Florida gives up 162.7 yards per game on the ground. I'd look for the Badgers to come much closer to their season average than what South Florida typically yields.
Avoid giving up the deep pass
The Badgers pass rush ratcheted up in the second quarter and helped to force turnovers and not give Bowling Green quarterback James Knapke time to throw the ball. But when he did have time, he was able to find room over the top of the defense.
True freshman safety Lubern Figaro had an interception last game and looked much better and more comfortable, but neither he nor fellow safety Michael Caputo is particularly adept at coverage. That could be a problem going forward.
Furthermore, typically dependable cornerback Sojourn Shelton was beaten numerous times against Bowling Green, and the rest of the defensive backs didn't fare much better either. The pressure on the quarterback, four sacks and four more quarterback hits helped out the secondary.
If the Badgers can keep up the pressure on Mike White and not let the Bulls get over the top of their coverage, then they will have no problem handling the Bulls.
South Florida Keys to Victory
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Break off big plays
The Badgers gave up runs of 65 and 30 yards last week against Bowling Green. They yielded 93 total rushing yards last game. For those of you who don't like math, that means on the 27 carries that didn't go for 30 or more yards, they gave up a total of minus-two yards.
Running back Marlon Mack has three runs of 50 or more yards this season, though all three came against Western Carolina. The Badgers are still without Warren Herring but still have a remarkably stout run defense. Yards will come at a premium, which makes breaking off big plays all the more important.
Quarterback Mike White will also need to make big plays happen, as it will be tough for the Bulls to move the ball in measured distances. He has to compete against the Badgers' speed and instincts in the linebacking corps.
Control the clock
Last week against UConn, South Florida held the ball for 39 minutes en route to a 17-14 victory. If South Florida can hold onto the ball for more than 35 minutes, it could force the Badgers to throw the ball more than they otherwise might want to, though with the way the Badgers broke off big runs last week, it may not matter.
Controlling the clock would also mean the Bulls have kept the chains moving and the Badgers offense off the field. While the Badgers have a more aggressive and faster defense this season, as they saw against LSU, they are thin along the defensive line and in their linebacking corps.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Corey Clement, running back
After Melvin Gordon's unbelievable game and Tanner McEvoy breaking the Wisconsin quarterback single-game rushing record, Corey Clement was relegated to third billing in the rushing game.
Clement has 40 carries for 213 yards and three touchdowns on the season and has chipped in as a receiver to boot, picking up four receptions for 41 yards and a score.
Clement may not have that extra gear that Gordon has or the element of surprise when running that McEvoy does, but, similarly to James White in his first three years, Clement quietly puts up very good numbers.
Look for him to have a big game on Saturday, matching Gordon at every turn as both break the 100-yard plateau by the midpoint of the third quarter.
Alec James, defensive end
After redshirting last year, Alec James has come on this year as the third defensive end behind Konrad Zagzebski and Chikwe Obasih. While James may not be in the starting lineup, he has certainly made an impact.
Playing in all three games, James has four tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and a fumble recovery. He has been in the backfield numerous times in all three games and is primed for his first career sack. Look for that to come on Saturday against South Florida.
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South Florida Players to Watch
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Mike White, quarterback
Thus far this season, quarterback Mike White has been well below average. He wasn't very good last year, sporting a touchdown-to-interception ratio that would make any coach cringe—three touchdowns against nine interceptions—and he has actually regressed in some areas from last season to this one.
White is currently 24-of-61 (39.3 percent) for 388 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He had his best game of the season last week against UConn, going 10-of-18 for 113 yards, one touchdown and an interception.
White will need to be better, much better, for the Bulls to have a chance to knock off the Badgers. He's had a couple of decent games in his career, but only twice has he thrown more touchdowns than interceptions. The game plan needs to be to stretch the Badgers secondary out, and to do that, White will have to excel.
Marlon Mack, running back
Running back Marlon Mack is currently ninth in the country in rushing yards with 502. He has eclipsed the century mark twice and had an astounding 275 yards on only 24 carries with four touchdowns in the season-opening victory against Western Carolina.
Mack won't see a ton of room to run against a front seven that is more talented than anything he has faced thus far this season. If Sojourn Shelton and Darius Hillary can do their jobs on the outside, then having Michael Caputo sniff around the box as well will only further hinder Mack's ability to make big plays happen.
But if Mack can get into the second level and make a guy miss, tackling in the secondary has never been the strong suit of the Badgers, save Caputo. Last week, Bowling Green was able to rip off touchdown runs of 35 and 60 yards. If Mack can pull one or two of those off as he did against Western Carolina—and if he can do it early—he will put pressure on the Badgers.
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
The postgame press conference after drubbing Bowling Green was quite a happy one for head coach Gary Andersen. In his opening statement, Andersen said, "That's team football. That's what you need to do to have a chance to do special things. So it was great to see that. I'm excited to break down the plan to win to see exactly how we did. And I think we did pretty well overall."
When asked about Melvin Gordon, he said:
"But absolutely, was Melvin determined to be a great back and do what he expects out of himself? I thought he was a great back way before today. I know we all believe that or we should believe that. But this was his opportunity to break out and he made a lot of people miss today against a defense that I thought tackled very well throughout their first games. And it was just, it was fun to watch for a lot of times.
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Gordon's performance may have been one for the ages, but it seems as if Andersen was more impressed by the way he carried himself than just what he did on the field. Gordon has shared carries throughout his first two seasons, and his team-first mentality has paid off in a big way.
South Florida
The Bulls have a run-first offense, but in their two losses to Maryland and NC State, they got away from the running game. In his postgame press conference after beating UConn, South Florida head coach Willie Taggart talked about how a conversation with a former player turned his play-calling philosophy around:
"This week in practice one of our former players came by and spoke to our team. He came up to me and said, ‘Coach, what’s going on? I looked in the paper and your running back had (12) carries (against NC State) – that’s not what you do. You’re usually around 30 carries. Get back to what you do. I like No. 5. Feed him the ball.' And he was right, so we fed him the ball and he did some good things for us.
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It was tough-sledding for Mack (No. 5), who needed 31 carries to hit 103 yards on the ground (3.3 yards per carry), but the strategy paid off with a win. It will be even tougher against Wisconsin, but sticking to the game plan will be necessary if the Bulls want to knock off the Badgers.
Prediction
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With all due respect to South Florida, if the Badgers run the ball half as well as they did last week against Bowling Green, they will still win by 30. South Florida's offense has sputtered at times, as witnessed by its 21.8 points per game despite not playing a team anywhere near the caliber of the Badgers.
Melvin Gordon will have 100 yards on the ground in the first half. By the midpoint of the third quarter, Corey Clement will join him in the century club. By the end of the third quarter, Tanner McEvoy will be there too to go along with his 150 yards passing and a touchdown to Sam Arneson, who alongside Alex Erickson has emerged as a favorite target for the quarterback.
As "Jump Around" comes to a conclusion, the student section will thin out as the Badgers will be sporting a 30-plus point lead as South Florida's offense moves backward every time it goes forward and the Badgers rack up four sacks by the time everything is said and done.
Last but not least, Rafael Gaglianone settles down and hits both of his field-goal attempts—one of which goes in from more than 40 yards out, and we get to see another little salsa dance.
Wisconsin 48, South Florida 10
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