Raiders vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?
After a Week 1 loss incited panic throughout the Northeast, the New England Patriots' resounding 30-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings restored order. Overreactions are a natural byproduct of a season that only provides a tiny 16-game sample size, so as the Pats head into their home opener, it is important to remember that the team's identity is far from concrete after just two weeks.
Thus, think of this week's survey of national perspectives as a progress report on the various facets of the Patriots' roster construction. New England does not possess any irreversible flaws, but even its strongest units (secondary, outside linebacker, etc.) are still looking for the right rotation of personnel.
Situations around the league are still fluid after two games, so consider these opinions and insights to be snapshots rather than immutable truths. As we try to pin down the complexion of the 2014 Patriots, here are the most important national views in helping us progress toward that goal.
Neil Greenberg: Revis Island Is Intact
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After an up-and-down Week 1 in which he was largely isolated on one side of the field, Darrelle Revis bounced back in a huge way against Greg Jennings last Sunday. Shadowing Jennings throughout the contest, Revis essentially extinguished Matt Cassel's favorite target, as The Washington Post's Neil Greenberg illustrates:
"Revis covered Greg Jennings throughout Sunday’s game against the Vikings and again would be targeted five times overall — three while in coverage against Jennings.
Since 2013, Cassel has completed 70.1 percent of his passes to Jennings for 551 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions (94.8 passer rating). Against Revis on Sunday, he was 1 for 5 for four yards total and an interception.
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Greenberg's piece provides some telling screenshots from film review, as Revis generally blanketed one of the league's savviest route-runners. While Jennings does not possess the same separation-creating speed out of his cuts as he did in his Green Bay heyday, that was just the second time he had been held to one reception since arriving in Minnesota.
Indeed, Revis' struggles last week against Mike Wallace were relative, as he only allowed two completions on five targets, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). One of those was a touchdown, of course, but the score was an unlucky result of Revis batting the ball straight into Wallace's hands.
Through two games, Revis' plus-2.3 overall grade ranks 16th among all cornerbacks. Likely regression to the mean for some of the top surprises (Bene Benwikere, Josh Robinson, etc.) should further vault Revis up those rankings. As a versatile technician who is capable of anchoring the pass defense, Revis remains a foundational player whom the Patriots should continue to bank upon.
Chad Parsons: Patterns in Ridley-Vereen Usage
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"Can see the game script difference for Ridley-Vereen snap%. Trailing in W1, Vereen 2.5:1, big win in W2, Ridley 2:1. #Patriots
— Chad Parsons (@ChadParsonsNFL) September 15, 2014"
Parsons, who works for the excellent fantasy site FootballGuys.com, highlights the frustrations for fantasy owners in deciphering the inscrutable Stevan Ridley-Shane Vereen platoon. But with them having such contrasting skill sets, unpredictability allows the Patriots a plethora of game-planning possibilities to keep the opposition off balance, especially in terms of personnel emphasis.
In truth, the Patriots' heavy emphasis on Tank/22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) likely stems from the issues in the passing game (something we will address later). Ridley played 37 snaps to just 20 for Vereen, a pattern that figures to continue until the offensive line jells and/or Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Dobson return to full health.
Still, all the clamor over the constant shifts in playing time is largely irrelevant. For the season Vereen has played 81 snaps to Ridley's 59, which is largely a function of the fact that the Patriots ran significantly more plays in Week 1. If both remain healthy, Brandon Bolden and James White (who has yet to make the active game-day roster) are only going to see a modicum of scraps.
Passing clearly provides a more diverse and dangerous method of attack, so until the Pats evolve in that aspect, the offense is not yet Super Bowl-caliber. But the running game remains an important changeup, and the Ridley-Vereen tandem provides the offense a reliable secondary pitch to lean upon while they straighten out their fastball.
Mike Tanier: O-Line Still Being Shielded
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While the Patriots' offensive line struggles were much less pronounced this week, particularly in pass protection, anyone who watched the game closely saw that the play calls were generated to minimize risk for the line. As Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier opines, circumstances greatly aided the offensive line on Sunday, even if the unit did improve upon its Week 1 debacle:
"Before we declare all to be well among Brady's protectors, keep in mind that the Stork Club got help from two of an offensive line's best friends: defensive (or special teams) scores and a big lead.
It's a lot easier to protect your quarterback when you have the luxury of playing punt-and-pin on passing downs. The draws and screens suggest that the Patriots are not fully confident in their reorganized line.
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Indeed, just two of Tom Brady's 21 passes traveled more than 20 yards against Minnesota, as the passing game essentially relied upon heavy doses of screens, slants and sticks to Julian Edelman. The Patriots will not always be able to employ such a low-risk/low-reward offensive game plan.
The most telling indicator of the line's progress will come when New England is trailing and reverts to spread three- and four-receiver formations in an attempt to score quickly. The Patriots tried and failed miserably to execute that situation against Miami, but considering that they have seemingly settled upon a starting five of Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Dan Connolly, Jordan Devey and Sebastian Vollmer, perhaps improved chemistry can ameliorate the ostensible lack of superior individual talent.
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Brian McIntyre: Inefficient Spending at WR
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"Patriots spending $7.5M this year on Amendola/LaFell. Through 2 games, 12 targets, 3 receptions for 16 yards (all by Amendola)
— Brian McIntyre (@brian_mcintyre) September 14, 2014"
A byproduct of the emphasis on Julian Edelman has been the marginalization of the rest of New England's receiving corps. The combined $7.5 million cap hit of Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell would equate to the second-highest cap number of any Patriot this season, behind only Tom Brady.
Clearly, that tandem has fallen well short of expectations. Amendola in particular has disappointed since inking his five-year, $28.5 million deal as Wes Welker's purported replacement. Though a painful groin injury could explain away much of his struggles in 2013, Amendola remains mired as the clear No. 3 receiver, playing just 52.3 percent of the snaps so far in 2014.
LaFell earned a spot on the game-day roster due to his special teams contributions, but his inability to emerge as a perimeter target has been disappointing, particularly given Dobson's injury difficulties. Dobson was likely going to supplant LaFell as the split end "X" receiver anyways, but given the preseason praise surrounding LaFell, it is surprising that his most memorable play thus far has been a critical offensive pass interference against the Dolphins.
When identifying how the Patriots passing game could become more dangerous, most point to Gronkowski and Dobson as critical factors because of the added dimension of their skill sets. Amendola and LaFell look like redundancies—the former to Edelman, the latter to Dobson—so unless injuries deplete the receiving corps, both veterans could turn into sunk costs on New England's cap sheet.
Pro Football Focus: Chandler Jones Explodes
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After struggling as a miscast two-gapping 5-technique, Chandler Jones' return to a one-gapping edge-rushing role paid spectacular dividends. As PFF's Kiernan Hogan relays, Jones posted arguably the best all-around statistical performance of his career:
"After a tough outing last week in Miami, Jones rebounded with the best game of his young career. Many felt that Jones was playing out of position at 3-4 DE last week, and Jones’ dominant performance at 3-4 OLB/4-3 DE this week would seem to validate that argument. The Syracuse product was equally effective against the run and the pass, totaling 7 pressures and 5 run stops.
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Jones had a juicy matchup against Minnesota's powerful but relatively lead-footed left tackle Matt Kalil, as he constantly utilized his length and quick get-off to create leverage on Kalil. For the week, Jones finished sixth among 3-4 outside linebackers in PFF's pass-rushing productivity metric, a stat that considers pass-rushing impact on a per-play basis. Only Ryan Kerrigan, who exploited the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars line, recorded more pressures than Jones' seven.
While we will need a larger sample size, it appears that Jones has done a better job of diversifying his pass-rushing arsenal beyond the typical swim and rip moves he mostly relied upon his first two seasons. I suggested this summer that such refinement was the only thing separating Jones from stardom, especially considering his durability and polish as a run defender.
If there is one concern, it is that Jones has played 97.2 percent of the snaps through two games. That is an untenable number if the Patriots hope to preserve his legs for the winter, so perhaps a more liberal edge rotation involving Dont'a Hightower and (when healthy) Michael Buchanan could preserve Jones. Given his form last week, failing to maximize his tantalizing potential as one of the league's best edge players would represent a tremendous waste.
*All stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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