Top 25 College Football Teams Guaranteed to Lose More Than 1 Game
Are Georgia and USC out of the College Football Playoff hunt after losing in Week 3?
What about Michigan State, South Carolina, Stanford, Wisconsin, Clemson and Ohio State? Is a good bowl game all 2-1 teams have left to play for?
Though there are plenty of unknowns in the new era of college football, we know this for sure: If fewer than four teams go undefeated this season, the programs that finish with one loss will fight over the remaining playoff spots.
This makes the one-loss season almost as valuable as running the tables, and it means that if you haven’t lost more than one game yet, you’re still in the mix.
On the flip side, if you lose again, earning the dreaded, dastardly second loss, you really are just playing for a decent bowl game.
Here’s a look at teams with the biggest risk—because of a weakness on the field or a tough upcoming schedule—of suffering a “something-and-2” mark this season.
Oklahoma State
1 of 12
Ranking: No. 25 AP/Unranked in the Coaches
What earns Oklahoma State a place on this list is its opening loss to Florida State combined with its inexperience.
The Cowboys played well in their 37-31 loss to the No. 1 Seminoles, but the defeat puts them a mere one misstep away from being a two-loss team.
What’s key to remember about Oklahoma State is that it’s a young team as opposed to a team that isn’t good. The Cowboys return just nine starters from last season’s 10-3 team, No. 122 in the FBS. Five came back on offense and four on defense, earning OSU the No. 128 spot—dead last—in Phil Steele’s experience rankings.
Of specific concern is a defense that returned one starter to the secondary, a unit that gave up 370 yards through the air to Florida State and 219 in its 40-23 win over FCS Southwest Missouri State. This group will have to contend with another pass-happy Big 12 this season.
The most dangerous games looming for the Cowboys are an Oct. 25 visit from West Virginia, a Nov. 22 date at Baylor and then the finale, Dec. 6 at Oklahoma.
History is also stacked against Oklahoma State, a program that’s achieved a one-loss finish only once since 1944, its 12-1 triumph in 2011.
Ohio State
2 of 12
Ranking: No. 23 AP/No. 18 Coaches
Even the Buckeyes’ 66-0 blowout of Kent State last Saturday wasn’t enough to squelch the notion that Ohio State is a team on the edge.
The Buckeyes are another young team, returning only five starters to an offense that ranked No. 5 last season in rushing yards versus No. 90 in passing yards. Though plenty of focus is on replacing the injured Braxton Miller at quarterback, the truth is even a healthy starter might have struggled alongside an overall inexperienced unit.
Only one starter returned to the offensive line this season, giving the Buckeyes only 21 shared starts across the front, No. 126 of the 128 FBS teams.
Whether it will happen at Penn State on Oct. 25, at Michigan State on Nov. 8 or in the finale with Michigan in Columbus—a rivalry game where anything can happen—the Buckeyes are just one loss away from posting back-to-back two-loss seasons.
Clemson
3 of 12
Ranking: No. 22 AP/No. 24 Coaches
Clemson’s loss to Georgia in Week 1 combined with its schedule make it an ideal candidate for at least two losses in 2014.
While the Tigers posted 735 yards of offense in their 73-7 win over FCS South Carolina State in Week 2, it is the same unit that managed only 291 yards in the loss to Georgia. And that's the same Bulldog defense that allowed 447 yards of offense to South Carolina last Saturday.
Remember, Clemson lost its quarterback, its top two receivers and its top two rushers from last season.
On defense, the Tigers gave up 328 yards of rushing to Georgia and still have to face Boston College, which racked up 452 ground yards against USC, and Georgia Tech, which runs the triple option.
Clemson’s biggest threat comes this Saturday at Florida State and in the finale with South Carolina, a team it hasn’t beaten since 2008.
From a historical perspective, the Tigers haven’t posted a one-loss campaign since going 9-1-1 in 1983.
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Kansas State
4 of 12
Ranking: No. 20 AP/No. 20 Coaches
The biggest question mark in predicting wins/losses for 2-0 Kansas State is can it beat No. 5 Auburn this Thursday night?
If so, it could still suffer a loss either at Oklahoma on Oct. 18 or at Baylor on Dec. 6 and survive as a one-loss team. If not, two losses—or more—are a realistic outcome.
The Wildcats’ hopes rest on their young defense—a squad that brought back only four starters from last season—tasked with containing Auburn’s No. 7-ranked rushing attack.
To put it all into perspective, the last time Kansas State beat a Top Five team was in 2006, when it knocked off No. 4 Texas 45-42. The last time it beat Oklahoma in Norman was in 2012, when it dropped the No. 6-ranked Sooners 24-19.
Missouri
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Ranking: No. 18 AP/No. 19 Coaches
After beating FCS South Dakota State, Toledo and UCF, Missouri is 3-0 and still another week away from starting its third-ever SEC schedule.
If it beats Indiana this weekend, it will be 4-0 and ranked even higher than its No. 18 mark in the AP.
What you have to remember about Missouri in 2014 is it isn’t the same team that engineered a thrilling 12-2 mark last season. Gone are all but nine starters, earning the Tigers a No. 122 ranking in both returning starters and in Steele’s experience rankings.
Like others on this list, the Tigers are young, not bad.
Combine this with a remaining schedule that includes road trips to South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee, and you get the picture: The worst is yet to come.
Keep an eye on Missouri’s pass defense; it returned only one starter to its struggling unit from a year ago. The Tigers secondary has given up 200-plus yards through the air in each of its first three games. On Nov. 15, it will try and contain a Texas A&M attack that has averaged 408 passing yards per game this season.
Stanford
6 of 12
Ranking: No. 16 AP/No. 15 Coaches
If you’re asking yourself why 2-1 Stanford is on this list and 2-1 USC isn’t, here’s a single-word answer: Oregon.
Yes, where USC does have UCLA and Notre Dame left to play—neither of which give off an invincible vibe—Stanford has Notre Dame, UCLA and Oregon.
While the Cardinal could fall to any number of teams, it has to travel to Eugene to play the Ducks on Nov. 1. Stanford has knocked off Oregon each of the last two seasons, but it’s done so by a total of nine points, making it anyone’s game.
And this may be the most complete team the Ducks have fielded since storming to the BCS title game in 2010.
That said, Stanford’s second loss could come much sooner—Sept. 27 at Washington, Oct. 4 at Notre Dame or Oct. 18 at Arizona State.
The simple truth is, the Cardinal suffered an early-season loss and have a very difficult schedule.
Keep an eye on Stanford’s pass defense, a unit that finished 2013 ranked No. 98 but are No. 1 in the FBS through three games this season. The true test of improvement is still to come versus Washington State (No. 1 in passing yards in 2014), Oregon State (No. 25), Oregon (No. 18), Utah (No. 29) and Cal (No. 27).
Arizona State
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Ranking: No. 15 AP/No. 13 Coaches
At 3-0, Arizona State has to mess up twice to hit two losses, something that looks far more realistic for a squad that gave up 545 yards of offense to Colorado last Saturday.
Yes, quarterback Taylor Kelly is out for at least one game with a foot injury—the Thursday night, Sept. 25, game versus No. 12 UCLA—but a bigger concern is the Sun Devil defense.
Arizona State returned just three starters to its defense this season, and it’s shown: It allowed 308 yards of offense and 14 points to FCS Weber State, 337 yards and 23 points to New Mexico and 545 yards and 24 points to Colorado.
Add in that the Sun Devils still have road trips to USC, Washington, Oregon State and Arizona plus home games with UCLA, Stanford and Notre Dame, and suddenly, two total losses seems like a good thing.
Arizona State hasn’t finished a season with only one loss since going 11-1 in 1996.
South Carolina
8 of 12
Ranking: No. 14 AP/No. 16 Coaches
The reason 2-1 South Carolina will suffer another loss is simple: Its defense is struggling epically.
After three games, the Gamecocks are ranked No. 109 in scoring defense, No. 82 versus the run and No. 125 against the pass. They are in last place in the SEC in each of the three statistical categories.
South Carolina gave up 680 yards of offense to Texas A&M in its 52-28 loss, 453 to East Carolina in Week 2’s 33-23 win and 408 more in last Saturday’s victory over Georgia.
This performance along with a No. 98 ranking in turnover margin make sustained winning improbable no matter how much improvement the Gamecocks manage to make as the season goes on.
If South Carolina played in any other conference than the SEC, it might have a shot at winning out, but with games remaining at Auburn, at Florida and at Clemson, another loss seems certain.
Georgia
9 of 12
Ranking: No. 13 AP/No. 14 Coaches
While there is no way to guarantee that Georgia will suffer its second loss this season against Auburn on Nov. 15, there is no way to ensure that it won’t.
The Bulldogs, like South Carolina, are 2-1 after a tough three-game opening, but unlike the Gamecocks, they don’t have the benefit of a balanced attack on offense. As things stand now, Georgia ranks No. 17 in rushing yards and No. 113 in passing.
On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs’ scoring defense ranks No. 91, giving up almost 30 points per game and 447 yards in last Saturday’s loss to South Carolina.
Though Georgia doesn’t have a Murderer’s Row left on its schedule, it’s got the kind of unanswered questions that could equal a second loss against Tennessee on Sept. 27, at Missouri on Oct. 11, at Arkansas on Oct. 18 or in the annual meeting with Florida on Nov. 1.
UCLA
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Ranking: No. 12 AP/No. 10 Coaches
It's hard to believe that UCLA doesn’t already have two losses, making it realistic to think that the Bruins could easily pick up a pair of defeats in their final nine games.
UCLA came close to losing to both unranked Virginia (28-20) and Texas (20-17), scoring its only “sure” win against Memphis, 42-35.
The Bruins are ranked No. 71 in scoring offense and No. 58 in scoring defense, not horrible numbers but certainly not the kind of stuff you’d expect from a Top 10 team.
The defense gave up 266 passing yards to Virginia and 305 to Memphis, making a loss possible against Oregon, Cal or USC—all featuring solid air attacks.
UCLA had what was supposed to be a soft start to its season, one that looked even better after Texas dropped its Week 2 game to BYU 41-7. Now the Bruins seem lucky to have escaped with a 3-0 start, but they still have Arizona State, Arizona, Washington, USC and Stanford left on the slate.
Another area for concern is quarterback Brett Hundley, who went out of the Texas game with an elbow injury. The Bruins are off in Week 4, but as of now, there is no assurance that Hundley will be back for the Sept. 25, Thursday night showdown with Arizona State.
According to Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times, Hundley is yet to undergo an MRI, and head coach Jim Mora isn’t expected to declare his status until the road trip to play the Sun Devils.
Ole Miss
11 of 12
Ranking: No. 10 AP/No. 12 Coaches
Ole Miss’ No. 10 rank in this week’s AP is the highest mark the Rebels have achieved since their No. 4 ranking in Week 3 of the 2009 season.
Though Ole Miss is playing well, it’s a team with its most difficult stretch in front of it. The Rebels beat Boise State 35-13 in Week 1, destroyed Vanderbilt 41-3 in Week 2 and took down Louisiana-Lafayette 56-15 in Week 3.
They are the No. 9-ranked team in the FBS in passing yards and are a lofty No. 4 in scoring defense, but they’ve earned the rankings against teams that are 4-6 combined this season.
After a bye in Week 4, the Rebels welcome Memphis to Oxford on Sept. 27, and then the real fun starts with a string of games with Alabama, Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. These teams combine for a 13-1 mark so far this season, the only loss coming via the Volunteers' 34-10 defeat at No. 4 Oklahoma last Saturday.
Ole Miss hasn’t finished a season with only one loss since going 7-1-2 in 1963.
Baylor
12 of 12
Ranking: No. 7 AP/No. 6 Coaches
Baylor is 3-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring offense and No. 3 in scoring defense. The Bears have outscored their first three opponents 178-27 and have shown no sign of weakness.
That said, Baylor has played two FBS teams (SMU and Buffalo) that are 1-4 combined in 2014 and a FCS squad (Northwestern State) that is 1-2. It’s had the easiest three-game opening of any team in the Top 10.
While that isn’t enough evidence to predict that the Bears will drop two games this season, what might be is Baylor’s nine returning starters from its 11-2 team last season. The low total earns it the No. 122 ranking among the 128 teams in the FBS.
Five are back on offense, and only four return to a defense that improved from a No. 113 rank in scoring in 2012 to a No. 36 mark last season.
Though other big-time teams like Alabama have plenty of holes to fill as well, Baylor simply hasn’t recruited well enough to plug the gaps as effectively. Where—according to Rivals—the Bears have an average recruiting class ranking of No. 38 since 2011, Alabama has a No. 1 average.
Not only do Baylor’s numbers not hold up nationally, it is No. 6 in average recruiting class rank since 2011 in the Big 12—after Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and TCU.
This means that games at Texas, at Oklahoma, at West Virginia and against Kansas State and Oklahoma State are all potential landmines for the Bears.
Again, Baylor is not a bad team, but it is a very young team.
Statistics courtesy of Phil Steele, Sports Reference-College Football and CFBStats.
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