College Football Conference Power Rankings Post-Week 3

Each FBS conference is looking to maintain or restore its reputation during the first year of the College Football Playoff era. The power-five leagues all want to be the new SEC, and the group-of-five leagues all want to be the new Mountain West.

Three weeks into the season, that mission has gone better for some leagues than others. One power conference in particular has been the story of the first month—though not for the reason it wanted to—while others have seen their own narratives start to unfurl.

In putting together these rankings, special attention was paid to the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, an opponent-adjusted team metric.

The method of the ratings can be found via the above link, but for our purposes, all you need to know is that a score of 0.0 percent makes a team average, and that the further you deviate in either direction (positive or negative), the less average that team becomes. If a conference's score is in the positive, that means its average team is better than the national average team. If it's negative, that means it's worse.

Also taken into account for these rankings was the nonconference record of each league, signature wins and how the teams have looked on the field. Not everything is quantifiable, after all.

Sometimes one league simply looks better.

11. Sun Belt

USA TODAY Sports

FBS Nonconference Record: 2-15 (11th)

Average F/+ Rating: -17.55% (11th)

Week 3 Highlights

• Georgia Southern pulls near-upset at Georgia Tech; loses 42-38

State of the Conference

Georgia Southern is 1-2 overall and 0-2 against FBS teams, but it has looked like the class of the Sun Belt regardless. In their first year up from the FCS ranks, the Eagles have already pushed a pair of middle-class ACC teams (N.C. State and Georgia Tech) to the brink.

Elsewhere, though, the Sun Belt has been unable to fill the void of departed member Western Kentucky. UL-Monroe scored a nice win at Wake Forest to open the season, but UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State have looked questionable against major competition, throwing the top part of the league into doubt.

South Alabama and Texas State are the upstarts, and both are capable of winning this league during a hard-to-peg season this year.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Texas State at Illinois (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
• Utah State at Arkansas State (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
• Georgia Southern at South Alabama (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

10. MAC

USA TODAY Sports

FBS Nonconference Record: 5-21 (ninth)

Average F/+ Rating: -11.09% (10th)

Week 3 Highlights

• Bowling Green wins shootout at Indiana, 48-45
• UMass pulls near-upset at Vanderbilt; loses on missed FG, 34-31
• Northern Illinois advances to 3-0 at UNLV, 48-34

State of the Conference

The MAC looks a little bit better than it did in 2013, in large part because its bottom tier has improved. The directional Michigans (Eastern, Central and Western) have looked close to competent, UMass almost won at Vanderbilt, and Akron almost won at Penn State.

Toledo has disappointed as a supposed conference title contender, but the two teams it has lost to, Missouri and Cincinnati, are both undefeated and look like two of the 20-25 best teams in America. Bowling Green was another supposed contender that appeared to be disappointing after Week 1, but it atoned for a loss to Western Kentucky by upsetting Indiana in Week 3.

More than anything, though, the MAC is in good spirits because of Northern Illinois, which many had pegged for regression after losing quarterback Jordan Lynch and safety Jimmie Ward. Three games in, however, the Huskies have looked fine, highlighted by road wins at Northwestern in Week 2 and UNLV last Saturday.

They'll carry the MAC banner with pride at Arkansas in Week 4.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Bowling Green at Wisconsin (Saturday, noon ET)
• Ball State at Toledo (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
• Northern Illinois at Arkansas (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)

9. Mountain West

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

FBS Nonconference Record: 5-15 (eighth)

Average F/+ Rating: -7.74% (eighth)

Week 3 Highlights

• Boise State wins at UConn, 38-21
• Nevada nearly wins at Arizona; falls just short, 35-28
• Hawaii finally guts out a win; beats Northern Iowa, 27-24

State of the Conference

The Mountain West is in a semi-state of flux, the only constant appearing to be that Boise State is the class of the league.

According to the F/+ ratings, however, no other team in the MWC is even above average, highlighted by the demise of last year's two championship game participants, Utah State and Fresno State. The Aggies have gotten a zombified version of star QB Chuckie Keeton, and the Bulldogs have been outscored 166-59 in three losses.

If there's a silver lining, it's been the nonconference showings of Nevada and Colorado State, which have beaten Washington State and Colorado from the Pac-12, respectively. Wyoming also hung around (for a quarter) at Oregon, Hawaii nearly beat Washington, and Oregon State and San Diego State nearly won at North Carolina.

The middle class of this league is bigger than it was last year, which should lead to parity behind Boise State. The MWC as a whole is down, but because of that, conference play might be even more fun.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Hawaii at Colorado (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
• San Jose State at Minnesota (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
• Utah State at Arkansas State (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
• San Diego State at Oregon State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)

8. Conference USA

USA TODAY Sports

FBS Nonconference Record: 11-16 (seventh)

Average F/+ Rating: -9.98% (ninth)

Week 3 Highlights

• Marshall steamrolls Ohio, 44-14
• Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky play classic; Raiders win in triple overtime, 50-47

State of the Conference

According to the F/+ ratings, Marshall and UTSA are the only above-average teams in C-USA, but Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UAB, Louisiana Tech and UTEP have all shown signs of being frisky.

The 11-16 record in FBS nonconference games already qualifies as better than that of the Mountain West (5-15), and it's even more impressive viewed in context. All 16 of those losses have come against power-conference teams—many against College Football Playoff contenders—and a fair share have been close results.

UAB, for example, lost by 13 points at Mississippi State. UTEP lost by four to Texas Tech, UTSA lost by three to Arizona, Old Dominion lost by 12 at N.C. State, Middle Tennessee lost by 11 at Minnesota and Western Kentucky lost by eight at Illinois.

For obvious reasons, C-USA would be a much stronger league had East Carolina not defected to the American. A win over Virginia Tech would look nice on the conference's resume. But Western Kentucky has done an admirable job filling in during its first year over from the Sun Belt, highlighted by a blowout win over Bowling Green.

WKU is a consolation prize—but a good one.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Marshall at Akron (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
• Middle Tennessee at Memphis (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)

7. American

Michael Shroyer/Getty Images

Nonconference Record: 3-17 (10th)

Average F/+ Rating: -5.12% (seventh)

Week 3 Highlights

• East Carolina beats Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, 28-21
• Gunner Kiel throws six TDs in debut; Cincinnati beats Toledo, 58-34

State of the Conference

The results have been ugly. Real ugly. At 3-17 against FBS nonconference opponents, the American has the second-worst record in college football. Only the Sun Belt (2-15) has been more futile.

In context, though, those numbers look a little bit better. East Carolina played South Carolina close before winning at Virginia Tech. UCF lost to Penn State in Dublin and at Missouri. Cincinnati has only played one game. The top three teams in this league will be just fine.

There have also been encouraging signs on the middle tier, where Memphis lost by seven at UCLA, Temple won by 30 at Vanderbilt, Houston hung close at BYU, and South Florida stayed close against Maryland. Those latter two teams have looked poor in their additional games, but they've at least shown a decent top gear.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Tulane at Duke (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
• North Carolina at East Carolina (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Middle Tennessee at Memphis (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
• Miami (Ohio) at Cincinnati (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)

6. Big Ten

USA TODAY Sports

FBS Nonconference Record: 14-13 (sixth)

Average F/+ Rating: +6.1% (fifth)

Week 3 Highlights

• Nebraska wins convincing game at Fresno State, 55-19
• Ohio State bounces back from loss; beats Kent State, 66-0

State of the Conference

Things went from apocalyptic to worse for the Big Ten last weekend, which sounds like a farce but isn't. Eulogies were written for the conference after its showing in Week 2, and they were promptly added onto (instead of amended) when Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota and Illinois all lost their first game of the year in Week 3.

"We're not feeling very good but the facts are the facts," Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany told ESPN.com after Week 2 (but before the Week 3 massacre). "I would just say with 50 percent of the nonconference games and 100 percent of conference games remaining, it's premature to make any judgments.

"…Anyone who writes the story of the 2014 football season after two weeks, that's premature."

Delany provides a fair sentiment, but with so few nonconference games remaining, the Big Ten will not have an objective chance to redeem itself until bowl season. Even if its best team, Michigan State, runs the table and looks dominant along the way, it might find itself on the outside of the CFP thanks to the stigma of the conference.

It's a bad time to be the Big Ten.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Iowa at Pittsburgh (Saturday, noon ET)
• Maryland at Syracuse (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
• Utah at Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Indiana at Missouri (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
• Miami at Nebraska (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

5. FBS Independents

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Nonconference Record: 9-2 (second)

Average F/+ Rating: +4.5% (sixth)

Week 3 Highlights

• BYU holds on to beat Houston, 33-25
• Navy overcomes loss of Keenan Reynolds; wins tricky game at Texas State, 35-21

State of the "Conference"

Fifty percent of the Independent teams are in the Top 25 of the F/+ ratings, something only the SEC can also claim.

Of course, that is wildly misleading due to the size of this not-conference, but it's true. BYU and Notre Dame have combined to start the season 6-0, and each has beaten a traditional college powerhouse—Texas and Michigan, respectively—by 30-plus points.

Navy, meanwhile, played Ohio State tight in Baltimore and beat a couple of scrappy teams in Temple and Texas State. Army got drilled by an angry Stanford team, but before that, it took a step forward with a convincing win at Buffalo in Week 1.

It is rare for one of the non-power-five leagues to even be considered for the top five on this list, much less make it. It requires unusual circumstances on both sides of the equation.

The non-power-five league has to be especially up, and one of the power-five league must be especially down.

Thanks to the Big Ten, the Independents have snuck in.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Virginia at BYU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Army at Wake Forest (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Rutgers at Navy (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)

4. Big 12

USA TODAY Sports

Nonconference Record: 11-6 (fifth)

Average F/+ Rating: +8.0% (fourth)

Week 3 Highlights

• West Virginia wins on the road at Maryland, 40-37
• Oklahoma State waxes a good UTSA team, 43-13
• Oklahoma looks as good as advertised; beats Tennessee, 34-10

State of the Conference 

The top five of the Big 12 is as good as advertised, albeit a little different.

If you swap in TCU in as the fifth team instead of Texas, every member of the Big 12's top half places inside the Top 26 of the F/+ rankings. The only other conference that can say that is the SEC.

The problem is the gap between team No. 5 (Kansas State) and team No. 6 (Texas), the latter of which is 1-2 and lost by 34 points at home to BYU. Behind it, a thought-to-be-decent Texas Tech team does not look much better, having just lost by 21 at home to Arkansas.

Saving the bottom half of the Big 12 might be West Virginia, which stayed close with Alabama in Week 1 and just beat Maryland on the road. The Mountaineers can make a statement about the depth of the conference with a home win over Oklahoma this weekend, although doing so might ironically hurt the Big 12 more than it helps.

OU and Baylor are its only realistic CFP contenders.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Auburn at Kansas State (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
• Oklahoma at West Virginia (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

3. ACC

Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Nonconference Record: 16-5 (fourth)

Average F/+ Rating: +8.5% (third)

Week 3 Highlights

• Boston College upsets USC in Chestnut Hill, 37-31
• Duke makes Kansas look like an FCS team; beats Jayhawks, 41-3
• N.C. State wins thorough road game at South Florida, 49-17

State of the Conference

The ACC has an impressive and deep middle class, but Florida State is its dictator, lording over the ruling class by its lonesome.

Clemson has a chance to change that this Saturday, but for now, the Seminoles are a cut or two ahead of the pack, a deep group that includes Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Virginia Tech with little discernible separation.

The tier below that includes a foursome of curious sleepers, highlighted by Boston College, which just upset USC in Chestnut Hill. Also in that discussion are undefeated but unimpressive teams such as Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Syracuse.

If you pretend Wake Forest does not exist—a conceit that every conference wishes it could do with its bottom-feeder—the ACC looks pretty good from top to bottom. None of these teams (sans maybe Clemson) seems like a legitimate threat to beat Florida State, but that is hardly an indictment of their skill.

It's been a promising start to the season.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (Saturday, noon ET)
• Iowa at Pittsburgh (Saturday, noon ET)
• Maryland at Syracuse (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
• Virginia at BYU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• North Carolina at East Carolina (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Miami at Nebraska (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
• Clemson at Florida State (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

2. Pac-12

USA TODAY Sports

Nonconference Record: 17-4 (third)

Average F/+ Rating: +10.3% (second)

Week 3 Highlights

• Washington finally gets on track; beats Illinois, 44-19
• UCLA survives with a backup quarterback; squeaks by Texas, 20-17
• Arizona advances to 3-0; holds on against Nevada, 35-28

State of the Conference

For now, at least, it's time to retire the "Is the Pac-12 better than the SEC?" argument. We can dig it up and dust it off during December and January, but three weeks into the season, it is moot.

The Pac-12 has still been the second-best FBS conference this season, but the gap between it and No. 3 is significantly bigger than the gap between it and No. 1. Despite its 3-0 record, UCLA has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country. Stanford lost at home to USC, and USC lost on the road to Boston College.

Washington and Arizona State are waiting in the weeds as sleepers, but the former struggled with Hawaii and Eastern Washington and the latter struggled with Colorado. Other than Oregon, the second most impressive Pac-12 team this season has probably been Utah, but the Utes have yet to face a true test (at least until this weekend).

The Pac-12 has stayed afloat these first three weeks, but it hasn't busted out the Olympic-style butterfly stroke so many expected. The SEC remains a few lengths ahead of it—and separating.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Utah at Michigan (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• California at Arizona (Saturday, 10 p.m. ET)
• Oregon at Washington State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)

1. SEC

John Weast/Getty Images

Nonconference Record: 22-2 (first)

Average F/+ Rating: +13.3% (first)

Week 3 Highlights

• Arkansas runs over Texas Tech; wins in Lubbock, 49-28
• Missouri handles a good UCF team at home, 38-10
• South Carolina-Georgia lives up to the hype; Gamecocks win, 38-35

State of the Conference

The SEC is just as strong as ever—and that might be an understatement. There's a chance that the league is even stronger.

Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall outlined the dominance of the SEC West after last weekend, tidily summing it up by saying it's "as good as the SEC always tells you it is." The only team in the West with a loss is Arkansas (and that loss came at fellow West team Auburn), and five teams from the division are in the top 10 of the AP Poll.

Combined, the SEC has lost only two nonconference FBS games: Vanderbilt's 30-point trouncing against Temple and Tennessee's 24-point loss at Oklahoma. The Commodores are the only bad team in the conference (or so it appears, thanks to Kentucky), and the Vols were playing a top-five opponent on the road.

Outside of that, the SEC has been spotless.

Week 4 Games to Watch

• Auburn at Kansas State (Thursday. 7:30 p.m. ET)
• Florida at Alabama (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET)
• Mississippi State at LSU (Saturday. 7 p.m. ET)
• Northern Illinois at Arkansas (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)