How 2014's Top Freshman QBs Compare to Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston
Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston have ruined the curve for freshman quarterbacks the past two seasons, combining to win 25 games, one national title and two Heisman Trophies.
Especially these next few seasons, every freshman who starts at a major program will be compared with that precocious duo, even though their success is an unfair precedent to compete with.
This year, only four freshman quarterbacks are starting at major programs, two redshirts and two trues. The two trues—John Wolford of Wake Forest and Brad Kaaya of Miami—have struggled a bit, but the two redshirts—Anu Solomon of Arizona and J.T. Barrett of Ohio State—have looked the part of quality contributors.
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Since Manziel and Winston also took a redshirt before starting, it seems fair to give Wolford and Kaaya a pass from the comparison. Playing in one's actual first year is a difficult mountain to climb.
But Solomon and Barrett got to learn for a year before starting, and they, like Manziel and Winston, are playing under renowned offensive coaches (Rich Rodriguez and Urban Meyer, respectively).
Let's see how they stack up to their predecessors:
| Total Yards | 1,055 | 883 | 762 | 903 |
| Total TD/INT | 8/1 | 10/5 | 10/1 | 12/0 |
| CMP % | 62.7 | 59.5 | 78.1 | 67.4 |
| QB Rating | 163.59 | 172.01 | 210.49 | 151.07 |
| Avg. QBR* | 71.5 | 67.0 | 75.9 | 89.7 |
*Measured the average of the first three QBR scores (via ESPN.com), not necessarily the QBR after three games.
Barrett has thrown five interceptions in three games, which sticks out next to Manziel's zero and Solomon and Winston's one.
To be fair, a large part of that can be attributed to preparedness, since Barrett didn't think he would be starting until Braxton Miller's shoulder injury late in camp. It can also be attributed to having to play Virginia Tech, one of the best secondaries in America. Both of those things might have skewed the turnover results against him.
At the same time, Manziel played Florida in his first career game, and he didn't implode by turning the ball over. The defenses each QB played must be taken into account—and they will be—but there is no good excuse for Barrett's carelessness through three games.
It's a stark deviation from Manziel and Winston.
A second thing of note from Table 1 is Solomon's volume yardage. He has posted more than 1,000 total yards through three games, easily the most of all four players and almost 300 more than Winston in 2013.
Ostensibly, numbers like that helped inform Danny Kanell of ESPN when he ranked Solomon way too high (No. 6, above Winston and Connor Cook) on his early-season quarterback Stock Watch a couple weeks ago. But how much do they really mean?
It's important to look at these numbers in context. Solomon's raw yardage is great, but his usage far exceeds that of Winston, whose team won its first three games in blowout fashion. Whereas Winston got to exit after roughly three quarters, Solomon has been locked in 60-minute games, working hard to score points throughout.
Here is how each QB has done on a per-play basis:
| Total Yards | 1,055 | 883 | 762 | 903 |
| Total Plays | 125 | 115 | 79 | 124 |
| Yards / Play | 8.4 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 7.3 |
The numbers here validate how Winston started last season, clarifying one way he'd been better than Solomon despite smaller raw numbers. He participated in almost 50 fewer offensive plays, averaging close to 10 yards per play on plays he was involved in.
There's a reason FSU could afford to pull him late in those games.
Table 2 brings up an interesting point, however, with regard to Manziel, who finished fourth with 7.3 yards per play.
That seems backward considering all we know about Manziel, especially after looking at Table 1. After three games, was he actually the least efficient of these QBs on a per-play basis?
Absolutely not.
This is where strength of opponent comes into play. Manziel finished first (by a wide margin) in the bottom row of Table 1, the one that measured average QBR. Although QBR is a young stat, it is useful because it weighs for (a) context, (b) rushing stats and (c) strength of defense faced. It is far from perfect, but in 2014, it is one of the best quantifiable metrics of quarterback performance.
Despite his lesser per-play numbers, Manziel finished first in adjusted QBR because he played Florida, which in 2012 was one of the best defenses in the country. Unlike Barrett in his game against Virginia Tech, he did not throw any crippling interceptions. He gave his team a chance to win, and even though it didn't, he played well.
On the whole, QBR is where Winston and Manziel had the biggest advantage over Solomon and Barrett, giving credence to the assertion that this year's freshman QBs have not been quite as good:
| Game 1 QBR | 77.6 | 86.9 | 97.0 | 83.3 |
| Game 2 QBR | 49.1 | 45.5 | 70.6 | 90.6 |
| Game 3 QBR | 87.7 | 68.5 | 60.2 | 95.2 |
| Games 1-3 QBR* | 71.5 | 67.0 | 75.9 | 89.7 |
*Measured the average of the first three QBR scores, not necessarily the QBR after three games.
According to ESPN (the site that compiles QBR), the scale ranges from 0-100, where a perfect game scores a 100, an average game scores a 50 and the worst game imaginable scores a 0.
Solomon and Barrett each logged a below-average performance in their second games, something neither Winston nor Manziel did at any point as freshmen. Manziel came close against LSU (51.2), but other than that, neither even flirted with going sub-50.
Solomon and Barrett can still turn things around, though. Neither is on par with Manziel after three games, but Winston is not far ahead of them. It wasn't until the second quarter of the regular season that he began playing like a Heisman candidate (and eventual winner) on a weekly basis:
| Games 1-3 QBR* | 71.5 | 67.0 | 75.9 | 89.7 |
| Games 4-6 QBR* | – | – | 93.4 | 89.7 |
| Games 7-9 QBR* | – | – | 89.3 | 82.1 |
| Games 10-12 QBR* | – | – | 89.0 | 88.0 |
| Final QBR | – | – | 89.4** | 90.3** |
*Measured the average of the first three QBR scores, not necessarily the QBR after three games.
**Finished with the No. 1 QBR score in the country.
By this logic, the next three games are a watershed stretch for Solomon and Barrett's development. If they play well, each would be following the same rough path as Winston (Solomon in particular, since his team is undefeated). If they don't play well, the comparisons with previous star freshmen will end.
Solomon starts his second quarter with a home game against Cal, but he follows that with a road trip to Oregon and a home game against USC. Despite (and in some ways, because of) how the Trojans looked at Boston College on Saturday, those second two games will pose a stiff test and teach us a lot about Solomon's immediate future.
Barrett starts his second quarter with a home game against Cincinnati, following that with a road trip to Maryland and a home game against Rutgers. The Bearcats, Terps and Scarlet Knights all have offenses that can score but questionable defenses, which should set Barrett up for success if he seizes the opportunity.
"We're still...figuring out exactly how we're going to be moving the ball as an offense once we start getting to the Big Ten season," said Meyer after Barrett threw for six touchdowns against Kent State, per Ben Axelrod of Bleacher Report. He doesn't know whether he should keep spreading things out with five receivers—whether that's the optimal way to use his quarterback.
If the precedents are any indication, however, he is running out of time to tinker.
The training period is supposed to be done.
Like Solomon, Barrett is a dual-threat player who's had modest success after three starts. He has weapons around him to help him do well, and even if that doesn't result in a Heisman (it won't), it can still result in a good first season and an auspicious future.
However, he and Solomon have both been slightly worse than Winston and Manziel were as freshmen, which is nothing to be ashamed of but also nothing a player should resign himself to. There is still a way for them to match their forerunners' success, but it needs to start immediately, in the next triad of games.
After three weeks, all four freshman seasons are in the same ballpark, but Manziel's is in the first row behind home plate, Winston's is a few rows back on the third base-line, Solomon's is at the front of the second deck and Barrett's is in the outfield bleachers.
They all got admitted to the game, but if Solomon and Barrett are going to upgrade seats, that movement must start now.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeighDAT
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