Mets' Jacob deGrom Ticketed for NL Rookie of the Year, Future Stardom

There was no hype engulfing him. There was no big fanbase clamoring for his arrival. There was hardly a track record to even support such things.

Jacob deGrom was not even on top-100 prospect lists and could barely crack Baseball America's top 10 within his own organization. 

Now, as the season comes to a close and the award cases are put through the grinder, deGrom is front and center as one of the few bright spots in a mostly terrible, embarrassing year for the New York Mets. 

In Mets We Trust tweeted some of his recent statistics and accomplishments:

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Jacob deGrom’s case for Rookie of the Year #RookieOfdeYear pic.twitter.com/gj3zJHJ1ol

— In Mets We Trust (@InMetsWeTrust) September 12, 2014"

The numbers are impressive, and they not only give deGrom a legitimate case to be the National League Rookie of the Year, but they should make him the front-runner in that race. 

Going into Monday’s start, deGrom had pitched 22 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. And according to Elias Sports Bureau, deGrom is one of three Mets pitchers to have ever posted an ERA under 3.00 through his first 20 starts. The other two are Hall-of-Famer Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden.

In his last 13 starts, deGrom is 8-2 with a 1.77 ERA. That ERA ranks third in the majors since June 21 behind Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber, a couple of Cy Young Award candidates. Opponents have a .535 OPS against deGrom in that time, trailing Kershaw and Garrett Richards for the best in baseball.

For the season, deGrom has a 2.62 ERA and 2.88 FIP.

“Certainly, no matter what happens when those ballots are cast, he’s had an outstanding year for a guy who’s [been] off the radar,” Mets manager Terry Collins told The Star-Ledger’s Mike Vorkunov. 

DeGrom’s chief competition in the Rookie of the Year race is Cincinnati Reds center fielder Billy Hamilton, and he has enough of a following and name recognition to steal an award that should not belong to him. 

Hamilton is carrying his candidacy with the hype that followed him into the season. He was a household name in baseball circles before spring training, and his speed was something of legend while he was still a minor league shortstop.

But the hype has faded and should not earn him the win over deGrom.

Hamilton’s speed is the best part of his game, and it contributes greatly to making him one of the best defensive center fielders in the NL. However, he has proven to be one of the worst offensive players in the league, ranking 60th out of the league’s 68 qualified players with a .665 OPS. His .297 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot ranks him the same.

Hamilton, a top prospect for years in the minors with something of a cult following, also has an OPS+ of 87, making him a below-average player across the board.

Hamilton’s most significant offensive contributions come on the bases, where he is one of the best at taking the extra base (which he does 64 percent of the time, per CBSSports.com's Dayn Perry) and is second in the league with 56 stolen bases.

The problem with that steal total is it is accompanied by 22 failures, which leads the league. His 72 percent success rate makes that part of his game more detrimental to scoring runs than it is helpful. Baseball people almost universally agree that it takes a rate of at least 75 percent for stolen bases to have a positive effect on an offense.

What Hamilton has in his favor, besides playing good defense at a premium position, is he has played in 144 games for the Reds while deGrom didn’t get to the majors until mid-May. Still, deGrom can counter that with a 2.9 WAR at Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and a 2.4 at FanGraphs.com (fWAR) despite the far fewer games. Hamilton has a 2.4 rWAR and 3.3 fWAR, although the latter site puts heavier emphasis on defense.

The point is this: DeGrom has the stronger overall case to be the NL Rookie of the Year.

Beyond this season, deGrom can be a pillar in the Mets rotation for years to come. And upon Matt Harvey’s return from Tommy John surgery, deGrom can lead whatever resurgence the franchise might have in the next few seasons.

DeGrom is a late bloomer, never putting up overly impressive minor league numbers until his first seven starts of this season, but at 26 years old, he could be hitting his stride and remain one of the league’s top starters for the foreseeable future. 

DeGrom has always been overshadowed by other Mets prospects with better reputations, including Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard, as recently as April.

That has changed dramatically this season, and it could be the case going forward as the best rookie in the NL this year has the tools to become one of the Mets’ best pitchers in future ones.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.