NCAA Football Rankings 2014: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 3
On the surface, Week 3 of the college football season didn’t look particularly exciting. There was only one matchup between two Associated Press Top 25 teams, with No. 6 Georgia traveling to No. 24 South Carolina. And only three Top 25 teams were less than double-digit favorites over their opponents.
Then, the games started, and we were proven wrong.
Two teams that started the week ranked among the nation’s Top 10 fell, and there were a number of other exciting games.
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There will be a significant shakeup in this week’s Top 25 when the polls are released Sunday afternoon. That’s the beauty of college football. It can surprise you when you least expect it.
| Team | Record | Previous | Week 3 Result |
| 1. Florida State | 2-0 | 1 | BYE |
| 2. Oregon | 3-0 | 2 | def. Wyoming 48-14 |
| 3. Alabama | 3-0 | 3 | def. Southern Miss 52-12 |
| 4. Oklahoma | 3-0 | 4 | def. Tennessee 34-10 |
| 5. Auburn | 2-0 | 5 | BYE |
| 6. Texas A&M | 3-0 | 7 | def. Rice 38-10 |
| 7. Baylor | 3-0 | 8 | def. Buffalo 63-21 |
| 8. LSU | 3-0 | 10 | def. Louisiana-Monroe 31-0 |
| 9. Notre Dame | 3-0 | 11 | def Purdue 30-14 |
| 10. UCLA | 3-0 | 12 | def Texas 20-17 |
| 11. Michigan State | 1-1 | 11 | BYE |
| 12. Ole Miss | 3-0 | 14 | def. Louisiana-Lafayette 56-15 |
| 13. Stanford | 2-1 | 15 | def. Army 35-0 |
| 14. Arizona State | 3-0 | 16 | def. Colorado 38-24 |
| 15. South Carolina | 2-1 | 24 | def. Georgia 38-35 |
| 16. Georgia | 1-1 | 6 | lost to South Carolina 38-35 |
| 17. Wisconsin | 1-1 | 17 | BYE |
| 18. Southern California | 2-1 | 9 | lost to Boston College 37-31 |
| 19. Kansas State | 2-0 | 19 | BYE |
| 20. Missouri | 3-0 | 20 | def. Central Florida 38-10 |
| 21. Ohio State | 2-1 | 22 | def. Kent State 66-0 |
| 22. Clemson | 1-1 | 23 | BYE |
| 23. BYU | 3-0 | 25 | def. Houston 33-25 |
| 24. Nebraska | 3-0 | NR | def. Fresno State 55-19 |
| 25. North Carolina | 2-0 | NR | BYE |
Note: Rankings reflect a prediction of the Week 4 AP poll—not how the author would rank the teams himself. Predictions are made under the assumption that all remaining Week 3 games finish as betting spreads would indicate.
Fun Facts
Maybe we should have seen South Carolina’s 38-35 upset of Georgia coming. The Gamecocks win marked the third consecutive season that the lower-ranked team has won this important SEC East matchup. In 2012, the No. 6 Gamecocks rolled No. 5 Georgia, 35-7, and last fall, No. 11 Georgia beat No. 6 South Carolina, 41-30, in Athens.
North Carolina was off this week, but moves into the rankings: the Tar Heels are 2-0 and dropped out of last week’s rankings after barely surviving San Diego State at home. The Heels and Nebraska were the first 2-0 teams to drop out of the rankings since 2009. Staying in the ranks won’t be easy, as UNC must travel to East Carolina, which is coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech.
Teams Rising
South Carolina
One game into the 2014 season, South Carolina looked like an afterthought as an SEC contender. The Gamecocks looked awful in a 52-28 home loss to Texas A&M, which snapped their 18-game home winning streak.
Funny what a visit from a rival can do. The Gamecocks survived a rain-soaked slugfest and hung on to nip Georgia, 38-35. Even though star tailback Mike Davis had just 66 yards on 17 carries, backup Brandon Wilds was more than capable, going for 93 yards and a score while averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Quarterback Dylan Thompson showed consistent downfield touch in passing for 271 yards and three touchdowns.
In the process, the Gamecocks took early control of the SEC East. If you wrote them off, it might be time to rethink that notion.
BYU
As an independent, BYU will have a difficult time making one of the College Football Playoff’s suite of bowls: the Cougars are not eligible for the Group of Five spot that is allocated for one non-Power Five team. But they’re going to make the nation take notice.
Following Thursday’s 33-25 win over Houston, BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2008. Quarterback Taysom Hill is an impressive dual threat. He had 360 yards of total offense Thursday, including 160 yards rushing, and accounted for two touchdowns. Next week, BYU hosts Virginia, but the biggest roadblocks to a run that would make the nation take notice are October trips to Central Florida and Boise State.
Could an independent make the four-team College Football Playoff field? The Cougars want America to have that debate.
LSU
It isn’t necessarily what the Tigers did this week, although they weren’t challenged in a 31-0 rout of a Louisiana-Monroe team that already owned a win over Wake Forest. But with two higher-ranked teams, Southern California and Georgia, losing on Saturday, Les Miles and Co. will move into the Top 10 this week.
Miles appears to have settled on a starting quarterback. Sophomore Anthony Jennings didn’t throw a touchdown, but completed 11 of 18 passes for 139 yards with an interception. Freshman Brandon Harris attempted only two passes, completing one for 14 yards.
The Tigers appear poised to stay in the Top 10 for the next few weeks, at least. They don’t hit the road until an Oct. 4 visit to Auburn, with Mississippi State and New Mexico State coming to Baton Rouge next. By the time LSU heads out for that crucial SEC West tilt, it should be 5-0 and perhaps ranked even higher.
Nebraska
After barely escaping FCS foe McNeese State at home, the Cornhuskers dropped out of the rankings. But they found their way back in following a dominant win at hapless Fresno State.
Nebraska wasn’t challenged, and senior tailback Ameer Abdullah surpassed his entire rushing output from last week on one 57-yard touchdown run. Home games with Miami (Fla.) and Illinois are up next on the docket, which will determine if the Huskers can build on this new Top 25 foothold.
Teams Falling
Louisville
Most expected Louisville to take some lumps in its first year of ACC play. Few expected that to happen on Saturday in Charlottesville, Va. The No. 21 Cardinals are headed out of the Top 25 after dropping a surprising 23-21 decision at Virginia.
Virginia, 2-10 in 2013, won its first game against FBS competition since defeating BYU last Aug. 31. Louisville’s damage was largely self-inflicted. The Cardinals rallied from a 20-7 deficit to take a one-point lead with 6:59 to go, but James Quick fumbled a punt at his own 25, with Virginia recovering. That set up Ian Frye’s third field goal of the game, the game-winner, with 3:41 left.
The Cardinals had four turnovers and there might be some question about the quarterback position after Reggie Bonnafon briefly relieved starter Will Gardner. Regardless, it’s clear that this won’t be an easy road for Louisville with Florida State, Clemson and Notre Dame still ahead on the schedule.
Virginia Tech
One week after handing Ohio State its first home loss since 2011, Virginia Tech came crashing back to earth Saturday with a 28-21 home loss to East Carolina. The Hokies erased a two-touchdown fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game at 21 with 1:20 remaining, but couldn’t stop the Pirates on the ensuing drive that covered 65 yards in just 64 seconds. Senior quarterback Shane Carden scored the winning touchdown on a one-yard run.
Carden also torched Bud Foster’s defense for 427 yards. It was ECU’s first road win over a ranked opponent since 1996. The Hokies lost for the fourth time in the last five home games after beating a ranked team, and the good will from the big win in Columbus is gone.
Frank Beamer’s team can still win the wide-open ACC Coastal Division: Georgia Tech visits next week and Tech doesn’t have a league road game until going to North Carolina Oct. 4. But Michael Brewer (who threw two interceptions to go with his three touchdowns must be more efficient if the Hokies have any hopes of making it to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
Georgia
Following a rousing 45-21 win over Clemson, the Bulldogs moved into the Top 10 and looked like an early contender for a College Football Playoff spot. Those hopes came crashing back to earth Saturday in Columbia, South Carolina. A disappointing 38-35 loss to rival South Carolina called into question the Bulldogs’ hopes of winning the SEC East, much less a national championship.
Georgia’s offense was sharp, with Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley rushing for 131 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. But quarterback Hutson Mason made a crucial mistake late, losing 10 yards on a silly intentional grounding call after the Bulldogs had a 1st-and-goal at the South Carolina 4-yard line.
And kicker Marshall Morgan, who set an SEC record for most consecutive field goals made earlier in the game, missed two attempts, including a 28-yarder pushed wide right that would’ve tied the game.
It’s early, but the Bulldogs defense must improve. South Carolina quarterback Dylan Thompson torched the secondary for 271 yards and three touchdowns.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
