MLB: Second Half Surprises and Let Downs

Don't always trust that stumbling or surging you see out of the gate. It happens to fans every year. We get duped into believing that a pitcher will continue to be lights out despite a high walk or homer rate. We feel encouraged that a hitter will keep his batting average over .300 when his BABIP is hovering around .400. 

Don't be the guy that gets fooled by an overachiever or the guy that gets caught off guard by a hot streak from an underachiever. Here are a few names to watch heading into the second half of the season.

These are some pitchers whose numbers will more than likely get worse than they are now:

Matt Cain, SF- His FIP is 3.86, his BABIP is .272, his LOB% is a ridiculous 86.5%, and his BB/9 is 3.54. I'm not denying that Cain is a good pitcher, but he's not 2.38 ERA good. When his LOB percent normalizes, and it will, he better bring his walk rate down or his ERA will jump. Also, his HR/FB rate is currently at a career high.

Kevin Millwood, Tex- He's another guy with a high LOB percent, equal to eighty percent. Keeping runners from scoring at that high of a clip for a whole season in Texas just will not happen, especially with a below average K/9 of 5.47. Plus, his FIP is a whopping 4.72. Yikes.

Yovani Gallardo, Mil- He's got the stuff, no doubt about that, but he still hasn't put it all together. He strikes out a lot of guys but he walks a bunch, too. His 4.32 per nine innings is fifth highest in the majors. If his HR/9 were well below average I wouldn't worry. But, at 1.10 per 9 innings, it's only a matter of time before more of those runners score. Also his LOB percent  is third highest in the majors and his BABIP is .264.

Here are some pitchers you can expect better numbers from in the second half:

Carl Pavano, Cle- After Ricky Nolasco, Pavano has had the hardest luck of any MLB SP. He has good peripherals: 1.68 BB/9, 6.48 K/9, 0.93 HR/9, and a decent Line Drive percnet of 19.4 percent. Unfortunately for him his BABIP is .340 and his LOB percent is a league-low 62.4 percent. His ERA is an inflated 5.13 when it should be closer to his FIP of 3.60.

Paul Maholm, Pit- Except for his BB/9 of 2.95 his peripherals look a lot like Pavano's. In fact his HR/9 is a fantastic 0.41. But his BABIP is .330 and his LOB percent is an unfavorable 67.1 percent. His FIP is 3.54 despite a 4.60 ERA. Plus, the guy has a great slider. Don't worry Pittsburgh fans, his numbers will get better.

Cole Hamels, Phi- For starters, he has a pretty good track record. Secondly, his numbers, besides his ERA, are extremely similar to his 2007 and 2008 numbers. What is hurting Hamels, besides his ankle, is that nasty BABIP of .348. He still has great command of the strike zone. His BB/9 this season is the lowest it has been his whole career. His 4.87 ERA won't stay that high forever.

Take a look at some hitters who should start to cool down:

David Wright, NYM- He doesn't have the power numbers (.459 SLG% and .136 ISO), he strikes out a lot (26.3 percent K rate), and his BABIP is an astronomical .427. If I hadn't said this was Wright you would have no problem dismissing his .323 average as fluky. I think it's fair to say that he has some kinks to work out or the second half is going to be very long for Mets fans.

Matt Kemp, LAD- He has loads of talent and is one of the most exciting young players in the game but he still has some work to do. Remember David Wright's stats? Yeah, Kemp's are like that: .489 SLG percent, .173 ISO, 24 percent K rate, and .389 BABIP. He won't be batting .300 by season's end unless his power develops and/or he stops striking out.

Chone Figgins, LAA- When he batted .330 in 2007 his BABIP was .399. When it normalizes he's a .275 hitter. Here's something else to be a bit nervous about: His 1.03 GB/FB ratio is his lowest for a single season by wide margin since 2004. If keeps hitting fly balls I wouldn't expect too great of a second half.

The second half is looking up for these guys:

Jimmy Rollins, Phi- He's had a bit of a rough first half, I know. But his BABIP is .241 which is his lowest season total by far. It will progress towards .300 and when it does he'll bounce back. Plus he's not striking out. He just needs to get in a groove.  When he does he should return to form.

Jay Bruce, Cin- He sports the lowest BABIP in the majors at .202. He has a good .234 ISO, and his 21.1 percent K rate isn't terrible. He's not a .200 hitter. Rather, the guy has gobs of talent. The first half has just been a bit of bad luck. Plus he's still slugging .441. 

Joe Crede, Min- He's batting .234 and his .231 BABIP isn't helping his cause. He's slugging .452 and his ISO is .218. With Morneau and Mauer in the lineup I would think Crede should see some nice pitches to hit. Look for a jump in his numbers.