Eagles vs. Colts: Breaking Down Philadelphia's Game Plan

Would it surprise anybody if I suggested the Philadelphia Eagles ram All-Pro running back down the Indianapolis Colts’ throats? The NFL’s reigning rushing champion versus a defense that surrendered 4.5 yards per carry on the ground in 2013, tied for 24th in the league?

As always, a healthy dose of McCoy—and Darren Sproles for that matter—will be a healthy part of Philadelphia’s game plan. That being said, Monday night should be a showcase for the Eagles’ newest star, second-year tight end Zach Ertz.

Such a prediction is not based entirely on how Ertz hurt the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 (3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD), or what the 35th overall pick has accomplished going back to last November (6 TD last 10 GMS, including playoffs). Of course, those things don’t hurt, either. Then look at what Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas did to Indianapolis this past week.

GMS	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
10	28	367	13.1	6

Thomas followed up his breakout season with a seven-catch, 104-yard, three-touchdown massacre of the Colts defense in Week 1.

Granted, Thomas is now a proven Pro Bowler, catching passes from a future Hall of Fame quarterback to boot. In terms of pure skill and athleticism, though, is the 2011 fourth-rounder really a much more promising player than Ertz is a prospect?

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Not at all. At 6’5”, 250 pounds, with a reported 4.76 40, according to NFL.com, Ertz should be able to take advantage of many of the same holes in the Colts’ pass coverage as Thomas did. At least, as a coach, I would try to find even more ways to exploit such an obvious hole.

And here comes the best part: In theory, anyway, the Indianapolis defense should struggle mightily to pressure the passer.

Many observers took Nick Foles’ first half against the Jaguars in Week 1 as a sign the third-year quarterback’s historic 2013 campaign was a fluke after all. Issues in protection had a lot—albeit not everything—to do with Foles’ struggles, however.

With outside linebacker Robert Mathis out serving a suspension (and subsequently finished for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon), the Colts don’t boast much in the way of a pass rush. Based on a whopping 5.5 quarterback takedowns in 2013, interior linebacker and former CFLer Jerrell Freeman is now the club’s most established sack artist. Look out!

The Eagles can’t afford to get caught up in Foles’ Week 1 struggles (5 SK, 2 FL, 1 INT), or the fact that reserves will be at left guard and right tackle due to injury—presently slated to be Dennis Kelly and Andrew Gardner, respectively, per Geoff Mosher for CSNPhilly.com.

The fact of the matter is the Eagles might want to plan on scoring 30 or more points, because they absolutely can—that, and if they don’t, the Colts are liable to win the game.

#FreeVinnyCurry

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If I were Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis, I wouldn’t even worry about the Indianapolis ground attack. Now, that might seem like a bit of an overstatement, but the Colts’ running game simply is not the thing that you would expect to hurt the Eagles defense.

Philadelphia held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry in 2013, good for fourth in the NFL, and limited all Jacksonville runs to 2.6 yards per attempt. The Colts’ primary running back, Trent Richardson, is averaging 3.3 yards per carry over his career, now in his third season. You have to hope, if not assume, that aspect of the game takes care of itself.

The Colts win or lose on the arm of Andrew Luck, and there’s only one surefire way to stop a great quarterback—by taking him down in the backfield. And if Davis had to choose preventing the pass over shutting down the run, surely defensive end Vinny Curry should be in line for more playing time.

PLAYER	ATTEMPTS	SKS	PRESSURES	Pass Rush Productivity
Vinny Curry	217	4.0	32	11.6
Cedric Thornton	415	1.0	20	3.7

Cedric Thornton has evolved into one of the league’s better run defenders in any scheme, but he offers next to nothing in the way of a pass rush. Curry, a 2012 second-round pick, tends to platoon for Thornton on passing downs.

With Richardson and the Colts, oftentimes it seems like that might as well be on every down.

Curry’s standing in Philly has improved quite a bit after spending the first two games on the inactive list in ’13. He went on to finish tied for third on the team with four sacks, despite playing roughly a third of the defensive snaps on the season. Metrics site Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated Curry second in pass-rush productivity for 3-4 ends behind only 2012 Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans.

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Statistics aside, there’s a reason Curry has worked his way into the defense’s nickel package. The 26-year-old is a load at 6’3”, 279 pounds, not to mention has an unbelievable first step.

The idea is to force Luck into errors, which he will eventually make—especially under pressure. Then again, the third-year signal-caller did cut his turnovers in half last year, dropping from 18 to nine interceptions, and five fumbles lost to two.

Then again, Luck’s two interceptions against the Denver Broncos this past Sunday proved the young signal-caller is still capable of making mistakes.

More likely than not, this will be a close matchup that comes down to wire. The Eagles have the No. 2 offense in the NFL from a season ago, while Luck leading fourth-quarter comebacks has become part of his identity.

Of course, if Luck is having trouble getting passes off, ability can only take him so far. A natural pass-rusher such as Curry should be deployed early and often in an effort to cut off the aerial attack at the legs.