Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Washington Redskins: Betting Odds Analysis, Prediction

Jacksonville gave up not just a shot at victory last week in Philadelphia, but also more importantly to fans who had backed them, a cover as a big road dog.

Meanwhile, Washington did no better in its opener in Houston. So two teams coming off disappointing outcomes meet when the Jaguars visit the Redskins Sunday afternoon.

There is a football handicapping rule of thumb that suggests when two bad teams are playing, wager on the dog, especially when a bad favorite is laying seven points.

Point Spread

The Redskins opened as 4.5-point favorites, and it was bet to seven points by Thursday; the total was 43.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 13.5-10.1 Redskins

Why the Jaguars Can Cover the Spread

The Jags opened this season with a 34-17 loss at Philadelphia, failing to cover as 10-point dogs on the road.

But Jacksonville actually outplayed the favored Eagles for a good part of that game. quarterback Chad Henne, getting the season-opening start over rookie Blake Bortles, tossed two nice TD passes to rookie Allen Hurns, leading the Jags to a 17-0 halftime lead.

And it could have been more, had they not come up empty on two field-goal attempts. Jacksonville still clung to the cover late, but Philly scored 10 points in the last two minutes, seven on a fumble return for a score with just more than a minute to go.

At worst, the Jags should have come away with a push against the defending NFC East champs. The Redskins are terrible as home chalk, according to the Odds Shark NFL database.

Why the Redskins Can Cover the Spread

The Redskins opened with a 17-6 loss at Houston, missing the cover as three-point dogs. Washington actually outgained the Texans 372-316, out-rushed them 131-115 and received a 29-of-37 passing performance from QB Robert Griffin III.

But Washington turned the ball over twice, once inside the Houston 10-yard line and later around midfield. The Redskins also gave up one score on a 76-yard catch-and-run and another on a blocked punt.

Turn a couple plays around and that game would have had a different outcome, with a different team cashing in. If Washington can get the running game going and eliminate a few mistakes, it will have a chance at the win and the cover Sunday. And that is what the Odds Shark computer, 2-3 in the Westgate handicapping super contest in Week 1, says will happen.

Smart Pick

Jacksonville started poorly last season, its first under head coach Gus Bradley, but showed improvement during the second half, going 4-1 both straight up and against the spread over one stretch.

And the Jags played a good first half against a good opponent on the road last week. On the other side of this matchup, Washington is in its first season under new head coach Jay Gruden and will go through a learning curve with the new systems.

So the pick in this spot is with the Jags and the points.

Trends

• The total has gone over in six of Jacksonville's last eight games on the road
• Redskins 4-12 ATS last 16 games as home favorites
• Redskins 3-1 ATS last four games vs. AFC South
• The total has gone under in six of Washington's last eight games

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark, follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.