Updated 2014 MLB Playoff Chances with 2 Weeks Remaining
There are just over two weeks left in the 2014 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture has started to take shape, there is still a lot to be decided between now and October.
In the American League, there are a total of nine teams that can still be called legitimate contenders. The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels look like safe bets to win their respective divisions, but the AL Central is still up for grabs, and both wild-card slots are wide open.
The National League picture is similarly cloudy, as there are seven teams that can be called contenders. The Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants all seem to be in a good position to play in October, but the NL East is the only division that looks to be locked up. One wild-card spot figures to go to whoever finishes second in the NL West, but the other is still up for grabs.
What follows is a look at each team's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:
- Current standings
- Recent performance
- Remaining schedule
So with the regular season set to wrap up Sunday, Sept. 28, here is a division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all 30 MLB teams.
AL East
1 of 6
Contenders
Baltimore Orioles (86-59, first in AL East)
The Orioles' magic number to clinch the AL East is at eight, as they have gone 34-17 since the All-Star break.
The offense is deep enough to deal with the fact that Nelson Cruz (.219 BA, 11 HR) and Chris Davis (.189 BA, 11 HR) have provided nothing but power in the second half. It will survive even with Davis suspended 25 games for amphetamines, as MLB announced Friday.
Meanwhile, the starting rotation remains far better than anyone would have guessed, led by Miguel Gonzalez (5-2, 1.86 ERA) and Chris Tillman (5-0, 2.08 ERA), who have both pitched well post-break.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Toronto Blue Jays (76-69, 3.5 games back in WC)
The Blue Jays certainly aren't rolling over, as they've gone 7-2 with an MLB-best plus-35 run differential here in September. However, it seems it will be too little, too late for a team that looked like the class of the American League earlier this season.
Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and breakout prospect Daniel Norris have provided plenty of reason for optimism on the pitching side of things, while the team will have a big decision to make regarding upcoming free agent Melky Cabrera.
Postseason Chances: 6 percent
New York Yankees (75-69, 4.0 games back in WC)
The Yankees are holding on by a thread as far as contention is concerned, and a four-game series in Baltimore with an Orioles team that they have gone just 3-8 against this season could be the final nail in the coffin.
All things considered, they've done a tremendous job staying competitive, despite a starting rotation decimated by injuries and an aging lineup that fell short of expectations. At least fans have the home finale on Sept. 25 and the Derek Jeter send-off that will go along with it to look forward to.
Postseason Chances: 1 percent
Out of Contention
Tampa Bay Rays (70-77)
Boston Red Sox (64-83)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Kansas City Royals (80-65, first in AL Central)
Looking to snap a 28-year playoff drought, the Royals put together an impressive 19-4 stretch to turn a five-game deficit in the AL Central into a three-game lead. However, they have gone just 8-9 since, and the Detroit Tigers are nipping at their heels.
They have the benefit of playing the Chicago White Sox seven more times, as well as a big three-game series against the aforementioned Tigers at home, so they really control their own destiny at this point. With a rock-solid rotation and lights-out bullpen, if nothing else they should be able to sneak in with a wild-card berth.
Postseason Chances: 83 percent
Detroit Tigers (80-66, 0.5 games up in WC)
The Tigers have not been the dominant team many expected them to be following the David Price trade, but they are still in position to take their fourth straight division title.
They end the season with seven games against the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins at home, so they have a favorable draw to close things out. The key will be getting the starting pitching performing at the elite level it is capable of and making sure the bullpen doesn't do too much damage, because the offense is solid.
Postseason Chances: 82 percent
Cleveland Indians (76-69, 3.5 games back in WC)
On the strength of a rejuvenated starting rotation, led by Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar alongside Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, the Indians have managed to climb back into contention. They still have an uphill battle ahead of them, though.
They are working on a nice 12-6 stretch of games, so they have some momentum on their side, but they have a series each remaining with the Royals and Tigers. If they can weather that storm, their remaining games are with the Astros, Twins and Rays, so they at least have an outside chance if everything breaks right.
Postseason Chances: 3 percent
Out of Contention
Chicago White Sox (66-80)
Minnesota Twins (62-84)
AL West
3 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Angels (91-55, first in AL West)
A little over a month ago on Aug. 10, the Angels trailed the Oakland Athletics by four games in the AL West standings. Since then, they've gone 23-6 to build a 10-game lead, leaving their magic number to clinch the division at seven.
It remains to be seen how far the Angels can go come October with a rotation of Jered Weaver, Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago and C.J. Wilson, but they should have no problem getting there, and likely with home-field advantage on their side.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Oakland Athletics (81-65, 1.5 games up in WC)
The last time we updated each team's playoff chances on Aug. 27, the Athletics were 5.5 games up for the No. 1 wild-card spot and given a "99 percent" chance of reaching the postseason.
A 4-11 record since has dropped those chances considerably, as this team is in real danger of putting together one of the worst second-half collapses in baseball history. Just six of their remaining 16 games are against teams with a winning record, but after dropping three of four to the Chicago White Sox to start this week, that doesn't mean much at this point.
Postseason Chances: 65 percent
Seattle Mariners (79-66, 0.5 games back in WC)
The Mariners wrapped up the month of August at 17-10 with an MLB-best plus-43 run differential, so they had plenty of momentum heading into the final month of the season.
They have a chance to pass the A's in the standings this weekend with a three-game series against them at home, and they still have seven games left with the Angels as well. Look no further than their MLB-leading 3.01 team ERA and a staff led by Cy Young front-runner Felix Hernandez to see just how dangerous this team could be if it can just squeeze out a wild-card spot.
Postseason Chances: 62 percent
Out of Contention
Houston Astros (65-81)
Texas Rangers (54-92)
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NL East
4 of 6
Contenders
Washington Nationals (83-62, first in NL East)
The Nationals have built their lead in the NL East to 8.5 games, putting their magic number at nine entering play Friday. They have been the class of the National League in the second half, and they look like a team built for a postseason run.
The offense is strong top to bottom since the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera, they rank second in the NL with a 3.19 starters' ERA and the bullpen remains a weapon even with Rafael Soriano yanked from the closer's role thanks to the trio of Matt Thornton, Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Atlanta Braves (75-71, 2.0 Games Back in WC)
A 7-10 stretch of games, including a series loss to a Nationals team that they have owned in recent years, leaves the Braves on the outside looking in for one of the two wild-card spots entering play Friday. A weekend series with the MLB-worst Texas Rangers followed by a 10-game homestand should give them a chance, but they're not playing their best baseball right now.
The Braves are just 17-20 since the beginning of August, and they have slumped across the board during that span. The trio of Julio Teheran, Aaron Harang and Ervin Santana has been inconsistent at best in the rotation, while the offense is putting up just 3.35 runs per game. They're not out of it by any means, but it's hard to put too much confidence in the Braves at this point.
Postseason Chances: 27 percent
Out of Contention
Miami Marlins (71-74)*
New York Mets (71-76)
Philadelphia Phillies (67-79)
*The Marlins were originally given a 1 percent chance when this was first laid out Wednesday afternoon, as they are currently 5.5 games out for the second wild-card spot. However, a gruesome injury to NL MVP candidate Giancarlo Stanton that will likely be season-ending was enough to bump them to the "Out of Contention" section.
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals (80-67, first in NL Central)
A 9-1 stretch had the Cardinals looking primed to run away with the NL Central title, but they just finished up a series against the Cincinnati Reds with three straight losses and now lead the Pittsburgh Pirates by just 2.5 games.
Michael Wacha remains a potential X-factor, as he has turned in mixed results in a pair of abridged starts since returning from the disabled list. From a scheduling standpoint they still look to be in great shape, as a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers next week features their only remaining games against a contender.
Postseason Chances: 91 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (77-69, 1.5 games up in WC)
The Pirates have steadily improved since opening the season 25-30, and they have emerged as the front-runners for the second NL wild-card spot with two weeks to go. Their next two series are against the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox at home, so they'll have a good chance to solidify their place in the standings.
Francisco Liriano is back to pitching at an elite level atop the rotation, allowing just two earned runs in 27 innings of work over his last four starts, striking out 34. As long as the rest of the staff can hold up behind him, and the offense can stay healthy, this looks like a playoff team.
Postseason Chances: 57 percent
Milwaukee Brewers (76-71, 1.5 games back in WC)
There was a time not too long ago when an Oakland vs. Milwaukee World Series seemed completely feasible, but now those teams are battling for their playoff lives, with the Brewers in particular in real danger of missing the postseason altogether.
They have gone a disastrous 5-16 in their last 21 games, including a 1-13 stretch that had them looking more like the early 2000s Brewers than a real contender. They kick off a nine-game road trip next week that includes series with the Cardinals and Pirates, so they have their work cut out for them to say the least.
Postseason Chances: 28 percent
Out of Contention
Cincinnati Reds (70-77)
Chicago Cubs (64-82)
NL West
6 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (83-63, first in NL West)
The Dodgers have sat atop the NL West standings since July 27, but their lead has never been more than 5.5 games, and the San Francisco Giants have trimmed it to just two games heading into what promises to be an exciting three-game series between the two teams in San Francisco this weekend.
The Dodgers rotation has received a nice boost from Dan Haren over the past month, making them that much more dangerous with the already lethal trio of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu in place. Snapping Yasiel Puig out of his second-half slump will be important down the stretch, but that is more with an eye on October.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
San Francisco Giants (81-65, 5.5 games up in WC)
The Giants have gone 12-3 in their last 15 games, as they have again looked like the team that sprinted out of the gates to open the season 42-21. They still have six games left with the Dodgers, so catching them and taking home the NL West title is certainly not out of the question.
Jake Peavy has made arguably the biggest impact of any July acquisition, as he's helped ease the loss of Matt Cain and given the Giants a legitimate second front-line arm alongside Madison Bumgarner. Offensively, there might not be a hotter hitter in baseball right now than Buster Posey, as he has quickly joined the NL MVP conversation.
Postseason Chances: 99 percent
Out of Contention
San Diego Padres (67-78)
Arizona Diamondbacks (59-87)
Colorado Rockies (59-87)
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