Pac-12 Football: Which Team Is Most Likely to Pull an Upset in Week 3?
Despite several games that were closer on the scoreboard than they appeared to be on paper, the Pac-12 had a successful Week 2 with the exception of Washington State dropping their game at Nevada.
Call that a wash, however, because Oregon notched a major victory for the conference in beating the reigning Rose Bowl champion Michigan State Spartans by 19 points.
Once again, the conference heads into a weekend where every team is favored to win, many by double digits. The only matchup between two Pac-12 teams is Arizona State at Colorado, yet another game that doesn't look very even.
Out of all the games scheduled for Saturday, which ones will result in an upset? We're taking a glance at every game on the slate for Week 3 in the Pac-12 and determining which program has the best chance of getting upset.
Wyoming at Oregon
1 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 2 p.m. ET
Where: Autzen Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon (-43)
After coming off one of the biggest nonconference victories in program history, don't be surprised to see Oregon come out of the gates a little sluggish on Saturday. Given the talent gap between the Ducks and the Wyoming Cowboys, however, a sluggish performance may not show up on the Jumbotron.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing the position better than anybody in the country, the running back stable is deep, healthy and crazy-talented, and the speed at wide receiver has been put to good use through two weeks.
Former North Dakota State head coach Craig Bohl now holds the same position at Wyoming, and you can be sure he'll have his team fired up and ready to go. In fact, it's hard to imagine the Ducks beating the spread. It's much harder to imagine them actually losing though.
Likelihood of an upset: none
Illinois at Washington
2 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 4 p.m. ET
Where: Husky Stadium
TV: Fox
Line: Washington (-13.5)
Through two games of the 2014 season, Illinois is averaging a respectable 35 points per game. The Fighting Illini are 2-0, and they'll be squaring off a Washington team that is a mere nine points away from having an 0-2 record, with losses to Hawaii and Eastern Washington.
That said, Illinois' victories came against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, and neither was in convincing fashion. If we're to believe that the Huskies offense is back on track with quarterback Cyler Miles running the show, they'll probably score 40 without much difficulty.
But man is that defense awful. It won't be going up against a Vernon Adams, but unless the unit comes ready to play and to make a statement, Illinois could hang around for awhile.
Likelihood of an upset: not very likely but keep an eye on this one
Army at Stanford
3 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 5 p.m. ET
Where: Stanford Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Line: Stanford (-28.5)
Stanford was dealt a major blow to its hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff after losing at home to USC on Saturday. With upcoming games at Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, the Cardinal are likely looking at a two- or three-loss season.
You could understand if quarterback Kevin Hogan's eyes are already focused on the next date that gives him and his teammates a chance to prove themselves. That will come in two weeks when the Cardinal head up to Seattle to take on the Huskies, not this Saturday when they welcome in Army.
Credit the Black Knights for putting up 47 points in a season-opening win over Buffalo, but they'll be lucky to hit 10 against Stanford's front seven. David Shaw's team, meanwhile, will be looking to work out a few kinks on offense, so don't be surprised to see some big plays out of a unit that just couldn't punch it in the end zone against the Trojans.
Likelihood of an upset: none
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Texas vs. UCLA
4 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: Fox
Line: UCLA (-7.5)
This matchup would look a lot more juicy if not for Texas getting throttled by 34 points against BYU on Saturday. Quarterback Tyrone Swoopes doesn't look like the answer, and not only is the defense less talented than it's been in some time, it looks clueless for large stretches of play.
On the other side, to say that UCLA has underwhelmed in its two victories would be an understatement. A narrow escape at Virginia looked like an aberration, but a close win over lowly Memphis at home was an affirmation that the Bruins have serious work to do to become a real contender even in their own division.
A loss here would not only look bad for the conference, it would also mean that UCLA has zero easy wins remaining on the schedule and could struggle to six or seven in total. The same effort of the first two weeks coupled with the Longhorns putting it all together could allow that to happen. Here's a guess that Jim Mora has other plans, and his plans are going to work out this time.
Likelihood of an upset: small but it wouldn't be completely shocking
USC at Boston College
5 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Alumni Stadium
TV: ESPN
Line: USC (-17)
Bettors be warned: Regardless of how great the USC defense looked on Saturday against Stanford, Week 3 brings the very definition of a trap game.
Perhaps the improved Trojans are ready to break the mold by following up a huge victory with a dominating performance against an inferior opponent. After all, Boston College has just 307 yards passing in two games, and its leading running back has barely 100.
Effort should be all it takes for the Trojans to walk out of Alumni Stadium with a comfortable victory. But USC hasn't performed very well as a favorite in the spotlight in recent years, and an East Coast game against a program desperate for a major win has all the makings of a closer-than-expected contest.
Likelihood of an upset: decent chance
Portland State at Washington State
6 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Martin Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Line: N/A
You come to a fork in the road, and by some great fortune, there's a sign pointing toward the right, making up your mind for you. Heck, there's even smooth pavement down that way, while the edge of a cliff lies just 10 feet down the path to the left.
Everything about Washington State's matchup with Portland State points toward the Cougars capturing their first win of the season. It's a home game, and it's unlikely that the offense will stall out against an FCS team. You always take the right path in the above situation, just like you'll always go with Mike Leach in this one.
But somewhere in the depths of your mind, a little voice is telling you to be careful. As obvious as this game looks on paper even with the 0-2 start for the Cougs, you just never know. If the defense from Week 1 shows up along with the offense from Week 2, the Vikings may just have a shot.
Likelihood of an upset: extremely unlikely
Arizona State at Colorado
7 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 10 p.m. ET
Where: Folsom Field
TV: ESPNU
Line: Arizona State (-15.5)
The first test in the still-young 2014 season for Arizona State comes Saturday when the Sun Devils travel to Folsom Field to take on Colorado. Keep in mind that this is a Buffaloes team coming off a three-point win over UMass, which was beaten soundly by Boston College in Week 1.
Yet again, we have a mismatch on paper. But there's a lot more talent on Colorado than its first two games might indicate, even if it hasn't come together all that well. Quarterback Sefo Liufau is coming along slowly but surely and has it in him to knock off a great team, perhaps even this season.
The doubt lies with Arizona State's defense, which has done its job so far albeit against terrible competition. Will it continue to do so against the Buffaloes, and if not, will pressure on the offense force quarterback Taylor Kelly into uncharacteristic mistakes? A three-score victory for Todd Graham's team is the most likely result, but if this thing stays close late into the third quarter, Colorado can pull the upset.
Likelihood of an upset: unlikely but the Buffaloes will pull it off if they're still in it late
Nevada at Arizona
8 of 8
When: Saturday, Sept. 13 at 11 p.m. ET
Where: Arizona Stadium
TV: Pac-12 Networks
Line: Arizona (-15.5)
What happened in Arizona's 26-23 win over UTSA in Week 2 was that the Wildcats' were pushed and shoved and locked into a slugfest, and Rich Rodriguez's team came away victorious. It was important for the young guys to learn how to win a close game, but they won't have that same chance again, at least not this weekend.
Nevada beat Washington State, but who knows what's going on in Pullman right now. Wolfpack quarterback Cody Fajardo is an intriguing talent who could pose a threat to Arizona's defense, but the offense should kick it back into high gear.
As big as it would be for Nevada to knock off a Pac-12 team for the second week in a row, it just isn't going to happen. Look for the Wildcats to come out strong and coast to a comfortable win, erasing any chance at an upset.
Likelihood of an upset: extremely unlikely
All stats via cfbstats.com. All betting lines via Odds Shark.
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