Why Toronto Raptors Belong in the NBA Championship Conversation
The Toronto Raptors surprised everyone last season, including themselves.
Last December, they dove head-first into a fire sale. By April, they were somehow setting a franchise record with their 48th victory and putting an end to their five-year playoff drought.
It was one of those must-see-it-to-believe-it performances—only those who had witnessed still weren't sure what had transpired.
"Before a dramatic reversal of a season, Toronto had been a meddling, mediocre group," wrote Real GM's Shams Charania. "... They had no identity, no established system—only jump-shooting tendencies, external blame for the coaching staff and a perception across the NBA of me-first attitudes."
That doesn't sound like the ingredients of a miraculous turnaround, does it? Neither does shipping out a primary scorer (Rudy Gay) for a handful of support pieces.
Maybe the inconceivable aspect of their surprising success was the reason it never seemed to command the respect it deserved. Or why the Brooklyn Nets had to deny their late-season skid wasn't done intentionally to set up a first-round matchup with the Raptors—and why the basketball world had a hard time subscribing to that theory.
People bought the Raptors as a great story. But as a great basketball team? Hoop heads have needed some type of wiggle room to sign off on that idea.
Toronto's place among the masses seems to be as one of the best of the rest. Solid but not spectacular.
Playoff participant, not playoff powerhouse.
ESPN's NBA forecast crew pegged the Raptors for 47 wins and the third seed in the East. Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal gave Toronto an extra victory but a lower postseason perch (fourth seed).
In other words, experts expect a repeat performance. And that logic isn't flawed.
The Raptors spent most of their summer retaining their own players (Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson). Save for landing scoring guard Lou Williams in a trade, their external moves were made on basketball's periphery, with only unheralded (James Johnson, Jordan Hamilton, Greg Stiemsma) or unproven (Bruno Caboclo, Lucas Nogueira, Will Cherry) players added to the fold.
With so much of Toronto's potential growth tied to internal improvements, it makes sense to question how much higher this ceiling can rise. Especially if you believe that a perfect storm—Lowry's contract year, remarkable health, a weakened Eastern Conference—had as much to do with last season's eye-opening run.
But before leaving the Raptors out of the championship picture, or including them with an asterisk, understand this: They have not played their best hand yet. Not with so much of this roster only starting to scratch their surface.
Take Lowry, for instance, Toronto's bulldog point guard with a reputation for having a bark every bit as vicious as his bite. With eight seasons under his belt and his 29th birthday awaiting him in March, he might seem like a curious candidate for development.
But in a lot of ways, last season felt like a first for the new Lowry. It wasn't just about performing at a personally unprecedented level (17.9 points, 7.4 assists, 38.0 percent three-point shooting); it was taking over his team and leading it somewhere substantial.
He had never started as many games (79) or played as many minutes (36.2 a night). For just the second time in his career, his team qualified for postseason play. And while some may put a contract-year tag next to his production, it felt like something bigger than a conveniently timed contribution.
"He really just proved to the league and to the ownership and to the other teams that wanted him in free agency that he was for real, and 'This is who I am,'" Raptors coach Dwane Casey said, via Bleacher Report's Jared Zwerling.
| 06-13 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 54.4 | 16.2 | 111 | 108 | .121 |
| 13-14 | 17.9 | 7.4 | 56.7 | 20.1 | 118 | 106 | .197 |
Handed the keys to a franchise for the first time in his career, Lowry delivered the eighth-most win shares in the league (11.7). It's scary to think what he could do for an encore.
As for Toronto's lone returning All-Star, DeMar DeRozan, fans already know what to expect: steady improvement.
That's been the story of his first five seasons in the league. His statistics have trended upward nearly every step of the way, culminating (for now) with the career per-game marks he set in 2013-14: 22.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 18.4 player efficiency rating and 8.8 win shares.
As Toronto assistant Jesse Mermuys told Raptors.com's Holly MacKenzie, DeRozan's growth hasn't happened by accident:
"He’s amazing. I always considered myself the hardest worker I know and then I met him. There’s times where I’m like, ‘There’s no way I want to go back to that gym right now,’ but he wants to go to the gym and I’m like, ‘Man, this guy’s killing me.'
... He’s just a different breed. He just eats it, sleeps it and dreams it 24/7.
"
This summer, the 25-year-old has been eating, sleeping and dreaming it alongside some of the world's greatest with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup. It's hard to imagine a better setting for a basketball junkie, and he's been soaking up the experience throughout the process.
Yet, ask Raptors assistant Bill Bayno about breakout candidates on the roster, and you won't hear the names Lowry or DeRozan.
Bayno told HoopsHype's Jorgie Sierra the team has major expectations for third-year players Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas.
"T-Ross and Jonas are still in that stage of their careers where they have a lot of room for improvement," Bayno said. "I think they will continue to grow. I think both of those guys can be All-Stars."
Valanciunas, who flirted with a nightly double-double last season (11.3 points, 8.8 rebounds), has looked like an All-Star for the Lithuanian team at the World Cup. He has scored in double-figures six of his seven games there and corralled 8.6 boards in only 23 minutes a night.
Once that ride is finished, he plans on hitting the ground running with the Raptors.
"I’m going to come back to Toronto ready for the season," he told the Toronto Star's Christopher Johnson. "It’s like preparation for the season, you know, by playing against the best centers in all of Europe and all the world. So, it’s giving me a lift."
And Ross has to be counting the days until tipoff after rapidly raising his ceiling with 10.9 points, 39.5 percent three-point shooting and one miraculous 51-point outburst last season.
Those are some impressive avenues for growth, right? Especially for a team that stumbled out to a 7-13 start and still found its way to the eighth-best net efficiency (plus 3.5 points per 100 possessions) rating last season.
But those aren't the only ways the Raptors should improve.
Their bench needed more of a scoring punch after averaging just 26.1 points per game last season (27th overall), via HoopsStats.com. They attacked that need with Williams, a 6'2" spark plug with a career 11.4 points-per-game scoring average.
Toronto had to find some length and athleticism for the defensive end. It got 6'9" and 248 pounds of toughness and tenacity with Johnson and 6'9" of intrigue in the 18-year-old Caboclo (or 7'7" of it if you're measuring by wingspan).
And somehow, versatile forward Amir Johnson, still only 27 years old, has yet to get a mention here.
Toronto's tool collection for building from within is extensive, and it's important to remember where this group is picking up from.
The Raptors aren't out to shock the world. They did enough of that last season.
This time, they are looking to establish their place among the NBA elite. A place their production says they deserved last year, before so many different doors to development were opened.
Last season was about discovery. This could easily be one of dominance, and that wouldn't—or, at least, shouldn't—surprise anyone.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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