Predicting the Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day Roster for 2015

After missing the playoffs for just the second time in five seasons, it's obvious the Cincinnati Reds will need to look into upgrading their roster this offseason.

The Reds have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, mainly in regards to their starting rotation. Four of the five current members of the rotation are due to become free agents after the 2015 season, so the team will need to figure out how to handle all of those contract situations.

When healthy, the current roster is good enough to make the playoffs. However, it may not be good enough to win a World Series next year. Does the front office give this group of players one more year to try to make something happen, or does it make a big trade to try to improve other areas?

There's no denying there are some serious holes on the roster. Left field needs a major upgrade, and the bullpen could use some help. Trading a starting pitcher could easily address both of those needs, but then that weakens the rotation a bit.

Anyone who follows the Reds knows that owner Bob Castellini and general manager Walt Jocketty are all about winning, which means a massive overhaul is unlikely. For the sake of this article, assume that the front office tries to win next season.

Keep reading to get a glimpse of what the Reds roster could look like in 2015.

*All stats are via MLB.com.

Starting 8

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Catcher: Devin Mesoraco

First Base: Joey Votto

Second Base: Brandon Phillips

Shortstop: Zack Cozart

Third Base: Todd Frazier

Right Field: Jay Bruce

Center Field Billy Hamilton

Left Field: Colby Rasmus

Anyone who is expecting to see drastic changes made to the starting lineup is out of luck. Outside of left field, expect to see a lot of familiar faces being penciled in on a nightly basis.

Joey Votto (quad), Brandon Phillips (thumb) and Jay Bruce (knee) all missed time with injuries this season. Losing those bats for any period of time—especially more than one at the same time—makes it tough for an offense to produce consistently.

When Phillips and Bruce returned—more quickly than expected, to their credit—to the lineup, they weren't able to put up the numbers they are capable of. With an offseason to get healthy, they should be back to form in 2015.

Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier had breakout seasons this year, which earned them each a spot on the National League All-Star team. Their right-handed power was much-needed, and with Bruce and Votto providing pop from the other side of the plate, this team could have a balanced middle of the lineup if everyone stays healthy.

Zack Cozart has turned out to be a player who will hit around .240-.250 but will give a team great defense. His power numbers dropped off this season, but if he can get back to hitting 15 home runs with 30 doubles, the Reds can live with his low average.

Obviously Billy Hamilton will remain at the top of the lineup. He has had a strong rookie season at the plate, on the bases and in the field. If he can work on his discipline, bunting and stealing in the offseason, he will be a major force at the top of the lineup for years to come.

When it comes to left field, the club could do many things. It could let players currently on the roster, such as Chris Heisey, play. It could trade a starting pitcher to acquire a big bat for the position. It could even try to sign an outfielder in free agency. The most likely choice is that the team goes after a relatively cheap player in free agency. 

A couple of names jump out as possible fits: Colby Rasmus and Nate Schierholtz. Neither Rasmus (.228) nor Schierholtz (.186) is having a great year at the plate. However, they have the potential to help a team out with their bat.

Rasmus hit .276 with 22 home runs with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2013, and Schierholtz hit .251 with 21 home runs with the Chicago Cubs last season. Rasmus has yet to put up consistent numbers in his career, but before this season, Schierholtz had only one season in which he didn't hit at least .250.

At $7 million, the 28-year-old Rasmus is making $2 million more than the 30-year-old Schierholtz in 2014. However, poor seasons should help lower their price tags this winter when both of them hit the free-agent market.

Schierholtz may be a safer pick, but Rasmus—a 2005 first-round pick—has more potential. Rasmus' upside is what makes him the pick here.

Cincinnati could use some help in between Hamilton and Votto. Rasmus is a career .252 hitter when batting second. With his pop, he could fit in very well at the top of this lineup.

There aren't many changes to the lineup, but as long as the players are able to stay healthy, there doesn't need to be a massive overhaul.

Bench

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Chris Heisey (OF)

Skip Schumaker (UT)

Brayan Pena (C)

Kristopher Negron (INF)

Ramon Santiago (INF)

The bench will likely be filled with plenty of familiar faces.

Chris Heisey is eligible for arbitration this winter, and given that he is as good of a pinch hitter as there is in baseball, there's no reason to believe that he won't be back. Brayan Pena and Skip Schumaker are both signed through next season.

Those three veterans—barring trades—are virtual locks to be on the roster next season. That leaves two spots remaining on the bench.

Cincinnati will likely look in free agency for some bench help. However, the team has some solid options for what it needs. 

It has some versatility when it comes to bench options. Jack Hannahan, Ramon Santiago and Kristopher Negron can all play around the infield. 

Hannahan has a $4 million team option—or a $2 million buyout—for next season. Given that he missed most of the 2014 with an injury and hasn't produced much at the plate when he has gotten a chance to play, it seems likely that the team would choose the buyout.

Negron has held his own at the plate when he has been in the lineup. His average has started to fall lately, but he still has some much-needed pop in his bat. The 28-year-old can play second, third, shortstop and even outfield if needed. His versatility and bat give him an advantage over other potential bench candidates.

For the final bench spot, Santiago may be the best option the Reds have. Santiago is hitting a respectable .252 this season, which is much better than most of the team's veteran backup shortstops have hit in recent seasons.

The 35-year-old, like Negron, can play second, third, shortstop and a little bit of outfield. Santiago would likely be cheaper than the $2 million it would take to keep the 34-year-old Hannahan. Given Hannahan is coming off a big injury, Santiago would be the safer bet.

If the Reds went with this bench next season, it would be very versatile. Pena would be the backup catcher, and as we have learned this year, can spell Joey Votto at first base. Heisey can play excellent defense at any of the outfield positions. Schumaker can play second base or outfield. Negron and Santiago can play just about anywhere necessary.

The only problem with the projected bench is that there wouldn't be much power at the plate. Heisey obviously is a threat to leave the yard, but he's about the only one who is a real threat. Negron and Pena can hit home runs occasionally but not consistently.

Rotation

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1. RHP Johnny Cueto

2. RHP Mat Latos

3. RHP Homer Bailey

4. RHP Mike Leake

5. LHP Tony Cingrani

The area of the team that could change the most over the winter is the starting rotation. 

Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon are all due to become free agents after the 2015 season. That means the team could look at trading one or more of those pitchers in order to address other areas that could help it in the future.

Given how good Cueto has been in recent seasons, he would likely be the team's choice to keep. The right-hander has won at least 17 games in two of the past three seasons, and he has not had an earned run average above 2.82 since 2010. He's near the top of the leaderboard in nearly every category this season, which is impressive considering he pitches half his games at Great American Ball Park.

As much as the team may want to keep the 28-year-old, he would bring back the most of any starter.

Latos has been everything the team could've hoped for since coming over before the 2012 season. He won 14 games in each of his first two seasons with the team and has had an ERA below 3.50 in each of the three years with the Reds. Latos is 21-7 with a 3.03 ERA in 44 career starts at Great American Ball Park.

If it comes down to keeping Cueto or Latos, it's a tough call. Cueto obviously is the second-best pitcher in the National League, but Latos is no slouch. Not only is Latos putting up good numbers, but the 26-year-old is also younger than Cueto. 

The team could try to trade one of the two to help other positions, but given how committed this ownership group is to winning, it wouldn't be a surprise if the rotation stays intact next year.

Homer Bailey was signed to a long-term deal last offseason, so he's not going anywhere this winter. As long as he doesn't have any setbacks, he is expected to be ready for spring training after recently having surgery to repair a tear in his flexor mass tendon near his right forearm.

Leake is another pitcher who could be traded this offseason, but the team would be better off keeping him and trying to re-sign him after the 2015 season if it is unable to do so this winter.

Assuming the front four starters all return, the Reds face an interesting dilemma for the fifth spot. MLB.com's Manny Randhawa recently reported that manager Bryan Price expects Simon to be a starter next season, but that may not be an easy call.

Simon went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA in the first half of the season, which earned him a spot on the NL All-Star team. However, he has gone 1-7 with a 5.27 ERA in the second half as his workload has increased.

He has thrown a career-high 171.1 innings this season, a total he hadn't reached in the previous two seasons combined. He has obviously worn down this season, so making him a starter again next season would be worrisome—especially in the second half.

If Tony Cingrani can get healthy this winter, he would be the most logical choice to be the fifth starter next year. The southpaw posted a 2.92 ERA in 23 games (18 starts) in 2013 but struggled to build on that this season. He has dealt with a shoulder injury, so that is a cause for concern. When he is healthy, he has shown that he can be a solid starter. 

Keeping the top four starters together gives the team its best chance to win next season. After all, this rotation was good enough to keep an injury-riddled lineup in contention for four months this year. 

Bullpen

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LHP Aroldis Chapman (closer)

RHP Jumbo Diaz (setup man)

LHP Sean Marshall (setup man)

RHP Sam LeCure

RHP Alfredo Simon

RHP J.J. Hoover

LHP Manny Parra

What was once a major strength now needs some serious help in the offseason.

Since Bryan Price came to Cincinnati, the team's bullpen has been among the best in all of baseball. That hasn't been the case in his first season as manager. As of Sept. 8, the Reds bullpen ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.11 ERA, despite the fact the starters have thrown the most innings in the league.

Now that Jonathan Broxton has been traded, there aren't many reliable arms in the bullpen.

Aroldis Chapman is obviously going to be back next season. Jumbo Diaz (3.00 ERA) has been about the only other reliable reliever in the bullpen this season, and with his fastball-slider combination, he could be a very good setup man next year. Sam LeCure has been a very reliable pitcher in the past, so he is going to be a part of the team moving forward.

Outside of those three pitchers, there's not much certainty in this unit.

If Tony Cingrani makes the rotation, Alfredo Simon will return to the bullpen. There is no doubt the bullpen would be much better with him returning to his old role. If Simon is a part of the team's 2015 rotation, the Reds would be wise to put Cingrani in the bullpen to give it a reliable left-handed reliever.

Nobody knows if Sean Marshall will be able to return to form after undergoing season-ending surgery on his shoulder in June. He has pitched in a total of 24.1 innings the past two seasons and was not effective this season. The team has to be hoping he is able to return to form and give it a solid southpaw out of the bullpen.

Southpaw Manny Parra has been the team's only left-handed reliever for much of this season, and the results haven't been pretty. He has a 4.54 ERA in 49 games this season. This year, right-handers are hitting .302 off him, and left-handers are hitting .247 off him.

For a guy whose job is to get left-handed hitters out, that average needs to be closer to the .167 average that he held them to in 2013. Outside of last season, Parra had never had an ERA below 4.39 in any season in which he made at least 32 appearances. Had he not signed a two-year deal last offseason, he likely wouldn't be back next season.

It's a tough call for the final bullpen spot if the team doesn't look to add external options. J.J. Hoover (1-10, 5.18 ERA) has had a rough season, and Logan Ondrusek (4.58 ERA) hasn't been much better.

Hoover posted a 2.05 ERA in 2012 and a 2.86 ERA last season, so the team has to be hoping that this was just a bad year and nothing more. His previous seasons have been better than Ondrusek's, so he should be the favorite for the final spot entering the spring.

If Marshall isn't ready to go in spring training, Ondrusek could wind up back on the roster. However, he has steadily declined over the years. Since posting a career-best 3.67 ERA in 2011, his earned run average has risen each season. 

The Reds should at least explore other the free-agent market relievers, but they do have some relievers who have put up good numbers in the past. The team could go with what it has and hope the pitchers rebound next year.

There's no doubt the front office will have to look at all its options this winter when addressing the bullpen.