Re-Ranking the Pac-12 Order of Finish After Week 2
We're two weeks into the Pac-12 football season and a pecking order has already been established, enough so that the preseason projected order of finish now looks different.
While each team's destiny isn't set in stone just yet, it's safe to say that both Oregon and USC are the class of the conference. Stanford may still have something to say about that, and despite an ugly-looking 2-0 start, the UCLA Bruins should not be counted out.
Other squads, like the Arizona schools and Utah, have yet to play challenging opponents, though we should learn a lot more before the end of September.
The following list is based mostly on how teams have played thus far, although you can't take overall talent out of the equation. UCLA has looked much worse than Cal, but it would be foolish to think that the Bruins will finish lower than the Bears after only two games.
Let's re-rank the Pac-12 order of finish after two weeks of play, knowing full well that the picture we see today will continue to be edited as the weeks go on.
All stats via cfbstats.com
12. Washington State Cougars, 6th in Pac-12 North
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There isn't anything positive to say about Washington State after two weeks of football, but we'll try. In Week 1, the offense showed up at times and probably did enough to beat Rutgers, but the defense wasn't there.
The defense came to the party at Nevada, but the offense was out of sync all evening. Had both units showed up to play in each game, we'd be looking at a 2-0 team and the narrative would be remarkably different. But they failed to show up at the same time, and the result is two losses to a pair of mediocre teams.
One thing you have to look at in coming up with a projected order of finish is whether or not the team in question could beat those predicted to finish ahead of it. The Cougars wouldn't stand a chance against anybody in the top 10 on the list, and they might not beat the program in the next slide, either.
11. Colorado Buffaloes, 6th in Pac-12 South
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If you had watched the first part of Colorado's opener against Colorado State to see the Buffaloes jump out to an early lead behind strong play from quarterback Sefo Liufau, you'd probably be wondering why Mike MacIntyre's squad was still projected to finish 11th in the conference.
What you would have failed to see was a meltdown in the fourth quarter that allowed the Rams to win easily, followed by a game against UMass that was in doubt until the waning moments. Neither of these contests inspire much confidence that the Buffaloes can hang with anybody other than Washington State. But the Cougars aren't even on the schedule.
Colorado's next game is against Arizona State at home. If the Sun Devils come in and deliver the knockout in the first half, you can probably write off the remainder of the Buffaloes' season. If this team wants to have a year that even remotely resembles something special, it will have to put up a fight against quarterback Taylor Kelly and the rest of the Sun Devils' high-powered offense.
10. Oregon State Beavers, 5th in Pac-12 North
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Death, taxes and the Beavers getting off to a slow start. Some things you can always count on in life, although Mike Riley is probably thrilled that the slow start this time around involves a pair of wins and a still-unblemished record.
A 29-14 victory over Portland State in which the Beavers scored the game's final 15 points was less than inspiring, which can also be said about nearly blowing a 31-point lead on the road to Hawaii. Based on how the Beavers have played so far, I don't see them beating any team in the Pac-12 North outside of Washington State.
But recent history suggests that the Beavers will not only find a groove during the season, but they'll also put a real scare into some of the conference heavyweights. We have to go off the eye test so far, and it's still a bit blurry. Give Sean Mannion and his receivers a few more weeks to gel, however, and the Beavers may not look like a team headed toward a fifth-place finish in its division.
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9. Washington Huskies, 4th in Pac-12 North
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If you were to guess before the season what the combined win margin would be for Washington against Hawaii and Eastern Washington, you'd probably spit out a number in the 60s or 70s. Instead, it's a whopping nine points, and the Huskies are lucky to be 2-0 after two weeks of football.
The defense is a complete trainwreck at this point, though the offense under Cyler Miles will put a strain on every team it faces. Despite Eastern Washington boasting the best FCS player in the country in quarterback Vernon Adams, allowing 52 points to anybody is a major disappointment. How are we supposed to believe the Ducks won't put up 60 on this team when it travels to Autzen?
That's the question that has Washington sitting at No. 9 in our projected order of finish. Chris Petersen's team may very well end up better than Cal, but you'd have to like the Bears chances were the game to be played tomorrow. For that reason, Washington lands in fourth place in the Pac-12 North.
8. Cal Bears, 3rd in Pac-12 North
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If the biggest frowny face so far goes to UCLA, the biggest smiley should be given to Cal, which notched a victory at Northwestern and then did what teams are supposed to do against FCS opponents and destroyed Sacramento State.
We won't go so far as to say the Bears are back and dangerous, but they appear to have the second-best offense in the North Division at this point. How the defense handles itself at Arizona on Sept. 20 will be very telling.
If you were given odds today about the order of finish in the Pac-12 North, both Washington and Oregon State might have an edge. But 90 percent of this exercise is about what we've seen so far, and despite a lack of tough competition, Cal has played as well as anybody.
7. Utah Utes, 5th in Pac-12 South
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It should be noted that Utah and Arizona are essentially interchangeable, and the only real reason the Wildcats are projected to finish one spot ahead of the Utes is that they've shown grittiness in a road victory. Kyle Whittingham's team will have plenty of chances to do the very same thing, however, starting in two weeks at Michigan.
Seventh place shouldn't be the goal for any team coming into the season, but the Utes so far look like a team ready to take on all comers. Everyone was impressed with what USC did to Fresno State, and then Utah went out and did the same thing.
The biggest key to a successful season is the health of Travis Wilson, a tall but elusive quarterback who single-handedly makes this offense go from awful to good and occasionally great. The jury is still out on the defense after it was not seriously tested in the first two weeks, though that's another issue that should have some light shed on it by the time the Utes leave the Big House on Sept. 20.
6. Arizona Wildcats, 4th in Pac-12 South
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The third-most impressive victory in the conference thus far occurred last week in a game that, to the casual viewer, probably looked like it should be a blowout. But nobody who watched UTSA handle Houston 27-7 in Week 1 thought that the Wildcats would simply rock the Roadrunners away from Tucson.
They didn't, but they did manage to escape with a 26-23 win, and while the offense showed its first few signs of weakness, it was a hard-fought victory that proved this team can stay focused when things get dicey. Anu Solomon, after being almost perfect against UNLV, made some mistakes that you'd expect from a redshirt freshman quarterback.
He's also made plays that you expect out of a seasoned veteran, which makes Rich Rodriguez's team a scary one indeed. Ultimately, the Wildcats are probably too young to compete for the top spot in the Pac-12 South, but they've looked better than anyone from the North Division not named Oregon or Stanford.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils, 3rd in Pac-12 South
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UCLA played two poor teams and barely won each game. Arizona State, meanwhile, played two awful teams and dominated both contests. The only difference is that the Sun Devils played an FCS squad and one of the worst FBS teams in the country, and we don't know anything beyond what we could guess back in August.
The offense is loaded with weapons, D.J. Foster is one cool customer and Jaelen Strong should have NFL scouts salivating. The defense hasn't answered any questions because it hasn't had the opportunity. Saturday's matchup with Colorado should provide some answers, but the three-game stretch that follows will tell us all we need to know.
After the trip to Boulder, Todd Graham's team will take on UCLA at home, USC on the road and then Stanford at home. Part of this list is predicting the order that teams will finish in, and because it's hard to see Arizona State winning two of those, it's also hard to see it finishing higher than third place in the division.
4. UCLA Bruins, 2nd in Pac-12 South
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There are probably a few UCLA fans wondering why the Bruins have fallen to No. 4 and a predicted finish of second place in the Pac-12 South. The rest of you are probably wondering why they're still listed so high.
After they barely escaped Virginia on the road, it seemed reasonable to think that the Bruins had simply offered up a sluggish performance to open the season. After barely slipping past Memphis at home on Saturday, it became clear that this team is in no way ready to compete for a national title. So why is Jim Mora's team still a contender in the Pac-12?
For one, the talent is there, even if it hasn't come together. We know what quarterback Brett Hundley can do, and the defense is as talented a unit as there is in the conference at every level. If everyone suddenly wakes up, UCLA will be a threat. But if that doesn't happen soon, the Bruins will find themselves with a loss or two on the record, and any hopes of challenging for a spot in the college football playoff will be gone for good.
3. Stanford Cardinal, 2nd in Pac-12 North
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Stanford and USC are separated on this list by the thinnest of margins. Well, three points to be exact. If it weren't for a number of red-zone blunders, the Cardinal may have exited Saturday with a semi-comfortable victory.
Instead, problems were exposed and the offense was highlighted as a unit with some very real issues. Give credit to USC, whose athletes in the front seven made life difficult for Kevin Hogan and Co., but 10 points isn't going to cut it in college football regardless of how well the opposing defense plays.
You can bet that David Shaw left the stadium Saturday evening feeling like his team let one get away, and it would be foolish to think that the "L" will somehow result in a slide. If anything, the Cardinal have proven to be a team that will come out of this stronger and hungrier than ever. With the defense looking nasty as always and an offense with the pieces to be solid, Stanford gets the No. 3 spot.
2. USC Trojans, 1st in Pac-12 South
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There isn't any other team you could justify putting in the No. 2 spot outside of USC. The Trojans dismantled Fresno State in Week 1, and though Utah proved in Week 2 that the Bulldogs might not be very good at all, Steve Sarkisian's team followed up the effort by knocking off Stanford 13-10 in Palo Alto.
It wasn't the prettiest game and neither team definitively outplayed the other, but the Trojans came out on top thanks to a clutch kick by Andre Heidari and a defense that refused to break. Road games at Arizona and Utah will be tough, but it's now plausible that USC could arrive in the Rose Bowl on Nov. 22 to take on UCLA with an undefeated record in tow.
Of course, that kind of talk is typically followed by a surprise upset due to overconfidence, but there aren't any real weaknesses for the Trojans. The offensive line is fairly young and Cody Kessler will probably have to win a game on his own at some point, but for now USC is clearly the biggest challenger to the Oregon Ducks.
1. Oregon Ducks, 1st in Pac-12 North
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With the most impressive victory to date of any team in the conference, Oregon stays in firm position as the favorite to win the Pac-12. Yes, there's a team on the previous slide with a pretty impressive win of its own, but Michigan State is the reigning Rose Bowl champion and the Ducks shredded the Spartans in the second half like a knife going through warm butter.
The contest wasn't without drama, however, as Oregon's defense wilted in the second quarter and the offense stalled time and time again. But against what is arguably one of the toughest defenses in football, quarterback Marcus Mariota and the offense opened things up through the air and on the ground, outscoring Sparty 28-3 after halftime.
Next up is Wyoming, followed by a trip to The Palouse to take on Washington State. Neither game should present much difficulty, so we may have to wait until Oct. 2 when Arizona comes calling on a Thursday night to learn more about the Ducks. But we know this already: Mark Helfrich's team is once again elite and every bit a contender for the college football playoff.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
