Rating Each Top 25 College Football Team as Contender or Pretender
If anything is certain after two weeks of the 2014 college football season, it's this: There's a lot of uncertainty.
Defending national champion Florida State has gone from a near-unanimous No. 1 in the preseason to one of six teams garnering first-place votes in the latest Associated Press poll after just two weeks of play. And that's without losing.
The short sample we have to work with has muddied up the playoff and national title picture more than cleared it up. With a few exceptions, most of the top teams are still in contention for big things, but how real are those chances? Are they just based on statistical probability or because that team truly has what it takes to be the champs?
We take a look at every team in the latest AP Top 25 and rate each as a pretender or contender and do our best to explain why. Think we're right, or way off base? Add your thoughts in the comment section.
25. BYU Cougars
1 of 25
Contender
For an independent team like BYU, the concept of being a contender is different than for teams in the power conferences or Notre Dame. The Cougars want to get that at-large spot in the College Football Playoff that goes to a non-Group of Five team, but they could end up doing even better if these first two performances are any indication of what's to come.
BYU has won a pair of road games by a combined score of 76-17. Winning by 25 at Connecticut was nice, but not nearly as impressive as blowing out Texas 41-7 in Austin. The commonality between both outcomes has been junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has completed 46 of 63 passes (after hitting on just 53.9 percent of his throws in 2013) and run for 196 yards with five touchdowns.
The Cougars have a lot of games on ESPN this season—thanks to five weeknight kickoffs—and will therefore get a lot of opportunities to impress on a national stage.
Next test: Sept. 11 vs. Houston
24. South Carolina Gamecocks
2 of 25
Pretender
South Carolina has been torn apart by the two quarterbacks it's faced this season. And while Texas A&M's Kenny Hill looks like he'll be a star and Shane Carden of East Carolina is a solid veteran, that doesn't excuse how bad the Gamecocks have looked on defense, particularly in the secondary.
And the Gamecocks still have to face Todd Gurley this weekend, as well as Maty Mauk and Missouri later this month and Auburn in October.
South Carolina has weapons on offense to score but not enough to win when its defense hasn't shown it can make a big stop.
Next test: Sept. 13 vs. Georgia
23. Clemson Tigers
3 of 25
Pretender
When a team manages just 15 yards and one first down in an entire half of football, regardless of the opponent or scenario, it can't be considered a contender.
Clemson had such a performance in the second half of its opener at Georgia, which put too much pressure on its defense to carry the load and resulted in a 21-21 game turning into a runaway. The Tigers defense is good, but not that good, and without consistency from their offense, this team won't be in the hunt for the playoffs.
Next test: Sept. 20 at Florida State
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22. Ohio State Buckeyes
4 of 25
Pretender
With an offensive line that's been unable to protect an inexperienced quarterback, along with a defense that's to this point been a major underachiever, there's no reason to believe Ohio State can contend for a title or even one of the College Football Playoff's side bowls.
The Buckeyes were run all over by Navy in their first game, then against Virginia Tech, they couldn't get any pressure on the quarterback. Those problems wouldn't have been so bad if their offense could produce, but J.T. Barrett has been under almost constant pressure in his first two starts and has come off looking unready for a leadership role.
"A quarterback is a product of those around him, and we all have to get better," OSU coach Urban Meyer told Ari Wasserman of Cleveland.com.
Barrett was sacked seven times and threw three interceptions against Virginia Tech, and through two games he's OSU's leading rusher with 120 yards.
Next test: Sept. 27 vs. Cincinnati
21. Louisville Cardinals
5 of 25
Pretender
Louisville has gotten off to a good start under new/old coach Bobby Petrino, but the competition needs to be considered. First the Cardinals faced a Miami team that wasn't ready for the season, then they walloped a lower-tier FCS team, both at home.
The most promising thing to be seen from Louisville has been its run game, which is averaging 227.5 yards through two games. The Cardinals defense has looked pretty good, too, with opponents averaging 2.4 yards per carry and 55.5 yards per game.
Check back in a month when Louisville plays a tough opponent, or in a hostile environment.
Next test: Oct. 11 at Clemson
20. Missouri Tigers
6 of 25
Pretender
Missouri's 25-point win at Toledo was quite impressive, and Maty Mauk is going to be as good as hoped, but the Tigers won't go anywhere until they get better at defending the run.
Mizzou has allowed a 100-yard rusher in both games, giving up 148 yards and three touchdowns to Toledo's Kareem Hunt. Hunt isn't anywhere close to the toughest running back the Tigers will face this year, not with upcoming clashes against South Carolina's Mike Davis and Georgia's Todd Gurley still on the docket.
Mauk threw five touchdown passes at Toledo, and through two games, he has eight TD passes. He has found a few different targets that have made the loss of last season's starting wideouts a non-issue, but Mizzou can't contend if it has to outscore teams.
Next test: Sept. 13 vs. UCF
19. Kansas State Wildcats
7 of 25
Pretender
Kansas State has a chance to play a major role in the playoff picture when it hosts Auburn on Sept. 18, but to really have a shot, the Wildcats can't play like they did for most of their 32-28 win at Iowa State.
K-State allowed 28 unanswered points to go from up 13 in the first quarter to down 15 late in the third quarter. Only the heroic play of quarterback Jake Waters, who scored twice on run plays, including the game-winning touchdown with 90 seconds left, kept the Wildcats from suffering an embarrassing loss.
The Wildcats defense slacked in the middle of that game, something it can't do against the elite teams in the Big 12 or the upcoming offensive juggernaut coming to Manhattan next week.
Next test: Sept. 18 vs. Auburn
18. Wisconsin Badgers
8 of 25
Pretender
Had quarterback Tanner McEvoy played against LSU like he did against Western Illinois, Wisconsin would be 2-0. But if running back Melvin Gordon isn't fully healthy, it won't matter how much McEvoy improves.
Gordon had only 38 yards on 17 carries against an FCS team, and though he was deemed recovered from the hip injury that limited him in the second half against LSU, he didn't look at full strength.
McEvoy looked much better in his second start than the first, but whether that will be the case when he faces another good team is uncertain. At this point, the Badgers aren't ready to compete for anything, which is only tempered by the fact they don't face a serious challenge for another month.
Next test: Oct. 25 vs. Maryland
17. Virginia Tech Hokies
9 of 25
Contender
The defense has always been there, but the one thing that's held Virginia Tech back more than anything the past few years—effective quarterback play—appears to finally be fixed thanks to Michael Brewer.
The Texas Tech transfer isn't putting up the kind of numbers he would with his old offense, but he doesn't need to. Instead, he's been efficient and (most importantly) mistake-free in key situations, completing 46 of 66 passes for 450 yards and four touchdowns.
Having any semblance of a sustainable offense is magnified by the Hokies defense, which longtime coordinator Bud Foster has playing as well as ever. Against Ohio State, he rushed five or more players on 34 of 43 pass plays, according to ESPN Stats & Info, leading to seven sacks and three interceptions.
In reality, the only thing that hurts Tech in terms of being a contender is its schedule. It wouldn't face Louisville, Clemson or Florida State until the ACC title game, with its side of the conference much less heralded.
Next test: Sept. 13 vs. East Carolina
16. Arizona State Sun Devils
10 of 25
Pretender
Winning by 35 points on the road is impressive no matter who it's against, but look closely at Arizona State's 58-23 victory over New Mexico and you'll see that complacency could be an issue against a better team.
"I thought our guys just thought we were just going to blow them out," ASU coach Todd Graham told The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com), referring to how the Sun Devils led 22-0 after 11 minutes but then less than a quarter later were only up 29-21.
ASU's offense has been impressive, particularly with how running back D.J. Foster (34 carries, 363 yards, four touchdowns) has looked. The Devils defense has some playmakers but will have to show it can stop better offenses.
Next test: Sept. 25 vs. UCLA
15. Stanford Cardinal
11 of 25
Contender
Scoring only 10 points in a loss at home would normally knock a team off the board for playoff or title contention, but the quality of the opponent Stanford lost to and how early the game was means there's time for things to get better.
Still, the Cardinal will need to work out their issues with finishing if contending is truly in the cards.
"The red zone turned into the dead zone," wrote Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, referring to how Stanford managed to get inside USC's 35-yard line on every possession (while reaching the red zone four times and inside the 10 on three occasions) yet managed only two scores.
Coach David Shaw is now battling criticisms of conservative play-calling, but USC's defense deserves credit for buckling down when needed. Stanford's defense shouldn't be overlooked, either, slowing down USC's fast-paced attack and limiting it to 291 yards and less than 60 percent of the snaps it had the week before.
Next test: Sept. 27 at Washington
14. Ole Miss Rebels
12 of 25
Pretender
Ole Miss is 2-0 without having played at home yet, but while it has outscored its opponents 76-16, the competition hasn't been as good as expected.
Boise State was mistake-prone, and Vanderbilt looked like a shell of its 2013 self. The Rebels have had little trouble moving the ball against either, yet they've also somehow managed to give up an astounding 19 tackles for a loss in those victories. Without fixing those issues up front, the many stronger opponents yet to come will cause quarterback Bo Wallace to spend a lot of time on the ground.
Wallace has looked mostly good, save for his three interceptions against Boise State, completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 707 yards and five TDs. He's got some great receivers to work with, but a lack of a running game will keep the Rebels from winning shootouts.
Next test: Oct. 4 vs. Alabama
13. Michigan State Spartans
13 of 25
Contender
There's no shame in losing on the road to a Top 5 team, and though it was concerning to see Michigan State's defense wear down at Oregon, it doesn't mean the Spartans should be written off.
On a weekend when the Big Ten came up short in many places, MSU's effort wasn't anywhere near the conference's worst. In fact, if anything, it may show how far ahead of the rest of the league it is, especially with the way it established a nine-point second-half lead against Oregon.
The Spartans lost early last season, then ran the table in increasingly impressive fashion and capped it with wins over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Those games to end the 2013 season should be considered when deciding whether to write off MSU, according to MLive.com's Mike Griffith:
"Has any other program played three of its past four games against teams ranked in the top five?" Griffith wrote. "If nothing else, that has been a confidence boost for Michigan State."
MSU does need to become more efficient with the run game, but won't face a quarterback anywhere near as effective as Oregon's Marcus Mariota anytime soon.
Next test: Oct. 4 vs. Nebraska
12. UCLA Bruins
14 of 25
Pretender
Through two games, UCLA has yet to put together a complete performance. While that wouldn't normally be much of an issue, it is in this case because the Bruins have done so against a pair of opponents who went 5-17 last year but whom they beat by only 15 points.
UCLA had to rely on three defensive touchdowns to win at Virginia, as Brett Hundley looked tentative on offense. The quarterback was much better against Memphis, but then the Bruins defense slacked and allowed 469 yards to the Tigers.
The Bruins were a trendy pick in the preseason to win the Pac-12 and be among the playoff participants, but that projected power hasn't been there yet. By the end of the season, we could be looking back at these early results as teaching moments, but for now they more resemble warning signs.
Next test: Sept. 13 vs. Texas (in Arlington, Texas)
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
15 of 25
Contender
A year away from the game hasn't had any negative effects on quarterback Everett Golson. In fact, it might even have made him a more complete player. And with Notre Dame's defense flying to the ball and showing aggression up front, the Fighting Irish are primed to make a run.
The proof will come when Notre Dame hits the road—playing Purdue in Indianapolis on Saturday doesn't count—but to this point, there's been nothing about the Irish that's led to worry. Golson is 37-of-56 for 521 yards and five touchdown passes, and he's also run for three scores while getting sacked only twice.
Notre Dame allowed Michigan's Devin Funchess to catch nine passes for 107 yards but never let him get free and cause trouble. And its defense terrorized Devin Gardner into four turnovers, never allowing him to be comfortable, which bodes well for when the Irish face the many other dangerous quarterbacks that are on the tough schedule ahead.
Next test: Oct. 4 vs. Stanford
10. LSU Tigers
16 of 25
Pretender
LSU deserves praise for rallying to beat Wisconsin, but that comeback was fueled as much by the opponent's injury issues and play-calling as anything the Tigers did. To this point, LSU hasn't looked very good, and without major improvement, it won't be able to vie for the playoffs let alone its own division.
Anthony Jennings has completed only 16 of 34 passes through two games, while the running game is a work in progress that will get better. But without all of those pieces coming into place soon, the Tigers will struggle when they get to the meat of their schedule in October and November.
LSU's defense has looked good, but the opposition also hasn't really tested it beyond the way Wisconsin ran the ball in the first half of the opener.
Next test: Sept. 20 vs. Mississippi State
9. USC Trojans
17 of 25
Contender
USC has played two completely different games already, but success in each has made the Trojans a very legitimate contender and the main challenger to Oregon for Pac-12 supremacy.
A week after snapping the ball 104 times and gaining more than 700 yards, USC was held to only 59 offensive plays against Stanford. Yet, even with only 291 yards and 13 points, the Trojans were able to win because of how impressive their defense was. Stanford doesn't have the best attack in the country by any means, but holding any team to just 10 points when they make nine trips inside the 30 is worthy of recognition.
Depth and injury issues could be the biggest hindrance for the Trojans, as defensive tackle Leonard Williams had to play through an ankle injury and linebacker Hayes Pullard has to miss the first half of Saturday's game at Boston College after being ejected for targeting.
USC won't face many defenses as solid as Stanford's, but it still needs to make sure it can adapt to different tempos on offense. Lindsey Thiry of the Los Angeles Times wrote that the Trojans' uptempo approach "has some growing pains to work through" after failing to maintain drives against the Cardinal.
Next test: Oct. 4 vs. Arizona State
8. Baylor Bears
18 of 25
Pretender
Using what Baylor has done in its first two games to make a judgement about its title chances is foolish, seeing as those initial opponents may rank 11th and 12th on the schedule in terms of ability.
SMU and Northwestern State have been no match for the Bears offense or defense, both of which could have won the game without the other doing a lick. A lot will depend on whether Bryce Petty is able to return from the back injury that caused him to miss Saturday's game, but backup Seth Russell (438 yards, five touchdowns vs. Northwestern State) showed Baylor's offense can thrive as long as there are receivers like freshman KD Cannon (four TDs and 282 yards on eight catches in two games) at the quarterback's disposal.
Baylor's defense has tuned up and feasted on inferior talent, but it's still been impressive. That unit has 12 sacks and has forced four turnovers already.
We really won't know if the Bears can cut it until the final month of the season, when they face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State.
Next test: Oct. 4 at Texas
7. Texas A&M Aggies
19 of 25
Contender
The concerns over whether the offense could thrive without Johnny Manziel were erased within minutes of the first game, but even more impressive is how quickly Texas A&M's young defense has come together.
A year ago, even a cupcake like Lamar would have moved the ball with ease and put up points—Rice and Sam Houston State scored a combined 59 points against the Aggies in the first two weeks of 2013. But on Saturday, A&M held Lamar to 243 total yards and a stellar 2.4 average on running plays.
Christopher Smith of Saturday Down South wrote that A&M's defense "showed a level of aggressiveness that bodes well for the Aggies" and, combined with the team's potent offense, can enable it to go for broke even if that means giving up big plays on occasion.
And speaking of that offense, all it's done in two games is score 125 points and gain 1,310 yards, averaging nearly eight yards per snap. Sophomore quarterback Kenny Hill has slipped right into Manziel's shoes and might wear them more comfortably, while A&M's receiving corps is immensely deep and its run game has several capable options.
Next test: Oct. 4 at Mississippi State
6. Georgia Bulldogs
20 of 25
Contender
One game is hard to use as a judge, but the complete package that Georgia showed in its win over Clemson on Aug. 30 at least gives us an idea of how improved the Bulldogs are from a year ago—most notably, how much better the defense can be with a better game plan and fewer mistakes.
Georgia held Clemson to one first down and 15 yards in the second half after giving up 21 points to a young offense before that. In 2013, the Bulldogs would wear down and give up big plays down the stretch, but through one game that hasn't been the case.
The defense doesn't need to be lights-out if Todd Gurley plays the way he did in the opener, rushing for 198 yards and three touchdowns (along with a 100-yard kickoff return TD).
Next test: Sept. 13 at South Carolina
5. Auburn Tigers
21 of 25
Pretender
Auburn showed it could make a title game without dominance on defense last season, but it can't expect that to work again in 2014. The Tigers have the kind of offense that can make up for defensive breakdowns, but the projected emergence of quarterback Nick Marshall's passing acumen has yet to happen.
Marshall hasn't had many chances to show this new wrinkle, having sat out the first half of the opener and then only throwing the ball six times. Against San Jose State, Marshall was 10-of-19, hooking up with Ricardo Louis for an early touchdown but then falling back more into his running ways.
Auburn's run game is as strong as ever, averaging 330 yards through two games, and senior Cameron Artis-Payne (289 yards, four TDs, 6.9 average) has stood out in his new role as the go-to running back.
After a shaky first half against Arkansas, the Tigers defense has held its opponents to 13 points and 380 yards over the past six quarters. That's promising, but improvement is still needed to be able to stop the likes of future foes like Kansas State and the six other currently ranked teams on the remaining schedule.
Next test: Sept. 18 at Kansas State
4. Oklahoma Sooners
22 of 25
Contender
Any worries about Oklahoma having a lack of experience at running back or depth at receiver have been quelled to this point, while the Sooners defense has been dominant despite losing star cornerback Zack Sanchez to a shoulder injury early in the blowout win at Tulsa.
Coach Bob Stoops said Sanchez will practice and is expected to play against Tennessee, according to ESPN.com's Jake Trotter. Without him, the Sooners held Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans to 204 yards and intercepted him twice (with Geneo Grissom returning a pick for a touchdown) a week after Evans threw for 438 yards.
Oklahoma's offense has been crisp and balanced, with Keith Ford and Alex Ross combining for seven touchdowns and a 7.5 yards-per-carry average. Trevor Knight has only completed 59 percent of his passes, but Sterling Shepard has been great as the No. 1, receiver. Dimitri Flowers, Durron Neal and K.J. Young are making cases for each being capable as the second option.
Next test: Sept. 13 vs. Tennessee
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
23 of 25
Contender
Ignoring the opponent, a look at the execution from Alabama's 41-0 lightning-shortened win Saturday over Florida Atlantic shows what this year's Crimson Tide team is going to look like.
Though the Owls didn't pose a threat in any way, they did provide Alabama with a willing subject to demonstrate what offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin can do with his skill players. The quarterback situation still isn't settled, but both Blake Sims and Jake Coker were given opportunities to show their natural talents and to make plays that the other is more known for.
"He has strengths where my weakness is and I've got strengths where his weakness is," Sims told Andrew Gribble of AL.com.
The Tide will need to settle on a quarterback at some point, but for now, Sims is in the lead and will likely get the more meaningful reps in upcoming games. But having that depth is promising, as is the improvement the defense showed. Pressure up front combined with better coverage from the secondary led to just 88 passing yards allowed.
Next test: Sept. 20 vs. Florida
2. Oregon Ducks
24 of 25
Contender
With the signature win of the 2014 season, Oregon has put itself smack dab in the middle of the playoff discussion. And with the Ducks' ability to take Michigan State's best punch and then fight back with their own flurry of jabs and hooks, they're playing the best football in the country.
Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde said as much in explaining why Oregon is now in "the pole position" for the College Football Playoff.
"Playing at home certainly helped, but make no mistake: Michigan State is a good team, even if the Big Ten is not a good league as a whole," he wrote. "Beating the Spartans by 19 points is a major statement."
By rallying from a 27-18 deficit and then making the final result look like a blowout, Oregon showed off its patented ability to turn a neck-and-neck race into a runaway. And while Marcus Mariota and his bevy of young but talented skill players get most of the credit, the Ducks' still-underappreciated defense deserves its due as well.
Oregon held MSU scoreless over the final 25-plus minutes of the game, holding the Spartans to 37 rushing yards in the second half while quarterback Connor Cook couldn't make any big plays. We also saw how athletic the Ducks defense was when Ifo Ekpre-Olomu made a diving interception midway through the fourth quarter on a tipped pass.
Next test: Oct. 2 vs. Arizona
1. Florida State Seminoles
25 of 25
Contender
Despite the underwhelming results from its first two games, Florida State is very much still the team to beat.
The Seminoles outlasted Oklahoma State in their opener, then sleepwalked through a 25-point home win over FCS Citadel, outcomes that weren't nearly as impressive as many of their main challengers for the top spot. And while their performance will need to improve dramatically to remain unbeaten, all of the pieces are there.
Jameis Winston hasn't been perfect, but he also hasn't been horrible. He threw two early interceptions against Oklahoma State, but then he also made a highlight-reel touchdown run that showed he's still got the magic. Against Citadel, he was near-perfect, and by getting the ball to 10 different receivers, he helped establish depth and experience for tougher foes coming up.
FSU's run game still needs to get better, and its defense hasn't been as swarming as in 2013, but it's also still getting new players in place. Give the 'Noles a few more weeks before worrying.
Next test: Sept. 20 vs. Clemson
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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