The 10 Most Unexpected Developments from the Start of College Football Season
It doesn't matter how much research we embark on or how many numbers we crunch: When studying for a college football season, there is no way to see everything coming.
We learn this again each September, when, after only a couple of weeks, certain teams and players come from nowhere to defy expectations, both good and bad, reminding us how little we know.
This year, it started right from the opening whistle, when the first major game of the season featured a Top 10 team getting pummeled on its home field. From there, things have continued to spiral in a direction that we all did not expect.
It's soothing to know that, in this regard, the College Football Playoff era will be a lot like that of the BCS: predictable in its unpredictability. The only thing we know is that we do not know anything.
Here are 10 vivid reminders of that from the start of 2014.
Notre Dame Looks Like a Playoff Contender
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In July, Notre Dame looked like a fringe playoff contender on paper with a schedule that would probably thwart its chances.
In August, after five key players were suspended as part of an academic fraud probe, it looked like a far cry from a playoff contender on paper with a schedule that would definitely thwart its chances.
But now? Notre Dame looks like a bona fide playoff contender on paper with a schedule that only might thwart its chances. Tough as the Irish's remaining slate might look (five games against teams in the Associated Press top 25) they still did something that hadn't been done in 30 years on Saturday, shutting out Michigan, 31-0.
Everett Golson has been in rare form through two weeks, and even with his favorite target (DaVaris Daniels) out as a part of the academic probe, this wouldn't be the first Notre Dame team he's willed to a special season. Especially if Will Fuller is as good as he's looked against Rice and Michigan, Golson will not lack for quality targets.
And how about the state of that defense—a youthful crew led by all-world linebacker Jaylon Smith, a sophomore. The Irish were flying around the ball against Michigan, exactly the way Brian VanGorder promised they would when he was hired.
BVG spoke for all of South Bend with this fist pump.
UCLA Does NOT Looks Like a Playoff Contender
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Remember two weeks ago, when all of those idiots were picking UCLA to make (or even win) the playoffs? How stupid are those people, right? It's like they don't even watch college football!
[Producer whispers in my ear, shows me this article]
Oh…right, then. Nothing to see here. Carry on.
Fine: The truth is that I, like so many others, thought UCLA would be a good-to-great team this season. I thought that the roster was sound on every level, the offensive line would improve and the defense would be one of the 10 best in America. And even though I am not quite ready to count it out of the Pac-12 and national title discussion, the first two weeks have been damning evidence to the contrary.
The offensive line was a turnstile against Virginia, only getting bailed out by the three-touchdown performance of the defense. The defense got walked on against Memphis, the only saving grace being the six-touchdown performance of the offense. Can the Bruins feel good about what they have on either side of the ball?
Right now? The answer is "No."
Texas A&M Did Not Skip a Beat
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From last year's offense, Texas A&M lost a former Heisman winner at quarterback (Johnny Manziel), two top-10 NFL draft picks at left tackle and wide receiver (Jake Matthews and Mike Evans), its leading rusher (Ben Malena) and its second-leading receiver behind Evans (Derel Walker). There was no way for it not to slightly regress.
Or so we all thought.
Instead, the Aggies came out and punched South Carolina in the mouth—on the road—to start the season, winning in a blowout, 52-28. Sophomore Kenny Hill broke Manziel's single-game passing record with 511 yards in his starting debut, and he currently leads all two-game starters in adjusted QBR, per ESPN.com.
With Malcome Kennedy, Ricky Seals-Jones, Edward Pope and Speedy Noil at receiver, an always strong offensive line, and, more than anything, Kevin Sumlin and Jake Spavital on the sideline, we all should have known better than to doubt what A&M could do.
Consider this a lesson that's been learned.
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Florida State Takes a Step Back (or so It Appears)
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Based on what it did last season, and what it returned to the roster, Florida State entered the year with the same reputation as the Death Star: overpowering attack methods, impregnable defense systems and an altogether vibe of being shatterproof.
Two games in, its thermal exhaust port is showing.
There's not much to take away from the Citadel game—a game it won by 25 points but could have won by 60 had it wanted to—but there was much to take away from the close win against Oklahoma State. It wasn't enough to keep me from buying the Seminoles as a playoff contender, but it was a look we hadn't seen since 2012.
With Notre Dame and Louisville playing better than most expected, Clemson no longer looks like the only obstacle standing between FSU and a 12-0 season. With Virginia Tech looking strong in the ACC Coastal (more on that in a bit), it no longer looks like going 12-0 would ensure going 13-0, either.
Florida State shouldn't sound the alarms quite yet, but it does have some flaws to look into. That is a departure—and an unexpected one—from the way it looked early last season.
The Big Ten Is Worse Than Bad
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Opinions varied on the Big Ten this preseason, and some of those opinions—as expected—stated that the conference would be bad.
But no one expected it to be this bad.
Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer took a thorough look at this after an awful weekend for the conference, provoking readers with a simple task: to find the best win from Saturday. My answer? Probably Minnesota beating Middle Tennessee by 11 points at home.
If that doesn't tell you enough—what will?
It's impulsive to say the Big Ten has been eliminated from the playoff discussion after Week 2 (it hasn't) but it's hard to imagine the conference getting off to a worse start. Good as Michigan State looked for two-and-a-half quarters at Oregon, Sparty got stomped for the next 20 minutes on the same night Ohio State and Michigan were getting drilled by Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
"The narrative is still developing for each team and for each of the conferences," Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany told the Associated Press. "It will develop into a full narrative by Dec. 7 not Sept. 7."
Delany is right on principle: There's a whole season still left to play. In the end, though, it might not make a difference. No matter how the narrative twists these next four months, nonconference games are the fairest measuring stick between the power-five leagues.
Through two weeks, the B1G has come up short.
Tennessee Is a Year Ahead of Schedule
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Conventional wisdom said that Tennessee would be (at least) a year away from contending in the SEC East. That's what happens when you sign a small village of recruits—a class that ranked top 10 in the country—to save a team that hasn't gone bowling since 2010.
That still might be the case—we'll learn a lot more when the Vols take on Oklahoma this weekend—but so far, Butch Jones' team looks a year ahead of schedule. Yes, it was only Utah State and Arkansas State, but UT has looked improved on every level.
Justin Worley has shown improved command and confidence at quarterback, and the skill players, despite their youth, are already good enough to make plays against any opponent. The defense and offensive line will get a stiff test in Norman, but so far, they have been cobbled together into something viable.
There's been a lot to turn-down-for-what about so far this season.
Vanderbilt Fell This Far, This Fast
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Elsewhere in State of Tennessee, roughly 180 miles east of Knoxville, Derek Mason's head-coaching career has gotten off to a wretched start. Two weeks into the season, his 0-2 Vanderbilt Commodores have been the only thing worse than the Big Ten.
We knew Vandy would take a step back after losing head coach James Franklin, receiver Jordan Matthews, cornerback Andre Hal and a cadre of other important pieces from the past three seasons. But to see it happen so vividly has been painful. Bad as the 37-7 loss to Temple was in Week 1, the 41-3 loss to Ole Miss might have been worse.
The result? Let's call it mild unrest down in Nashville. Commodores fans are not ready to move backwards, which is why Clay Travis of FoxSports.com thinks Mason should already be on the hot seat.
Fluky as it sometimes felt, this team has still won 18 games the past two seasons. It's gone bowling three consecutive years.
Suffice it to say that the streak will be ending there.
The ACC Is Not a Two-Team League
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Virginia Tech has fallen off the past two seasons, losing traction after dominating the ACC and Big East for roughly two decades.
Coinciding with its decline, Florida State has emerged as an Alabama-sized national power, and Clemson has emerged as something more than a points-obsessed underdog. The Seminoles and Tigers became the undisputed class of the conference, the two teams on Tier No. 1 with a massive drop-off before Tier No. 2.
This was thought to be the status quo entering 2014, but after beating Ohio State in Columbus, Frank Beamer's Hokies appear to have given the ACC a third contender. Bud Foster's defense is as scary as ever, and Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer provides a much-needed air of stability at quarterback. There are some promising young offensive skill players to build around, too.
While we're at it: How about some love for Bobby Petrino's first team at Louisville? The Cardinals thumped Miami to start the season and will not roll over when Florida State comes to visit October 30.
This is no longer a two-team conference.
The Pac-12 North Looks Like More of the Same
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It was supposed to be a year of change in the Pac-12 North, a division that's been dominated by Oregon and Stanford the past few seasons but appeared, on paper, to be as deep as any other in the country.
Two weeks in, that no longer seems like the case.
Washington—my pick to win the North—has found itself in dogfights against Hawaii and Eastern Washington to start the season. Oregon State hasn't looked much better, and Washington State has already lost to Rutgers (at home) and Nevada.
Despite its loss to USC, Stanford's defense looks as good as ever. The Cardinal would be 2-0 if not for laughable production in the red zone, and Oregon ran away from a Top-10 team in Michigan State.
Unless California's 2-0 start is for real, it seems like this division will come down, once again, to whether the Ducks can solve Stanford.
It's boring as heck, but it's true.
There Is No Gap in the Big 12's Middle Tier
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Oklahoma and Baylor are the class of the Big 12. This was expected before the season, and there is even less doubt about it now, after two weeks, than there was in June and July.
But what do we make of the rest of the conference—of the teams ranked third through eighth? Outside of Kansas and Iowa State (sort of), does any team feel like a long shot to finish No. 3?
Kansas State and Texas were voted third and fourth in the preseason media poll, but the Wildcats very nearly lost in Ames on Saturday, and the Longhorns got dismantled (once again) by BYU at home.
Meanwhile, West Virginia and Oklahoma State played close games against Alabama and Florida State, respectively, in the first week of the season, then crushed lesser competition in Week 2. Both look good enough to make some noise during conference play.
Also in the mix is Texas Tech—a team whose ceiling remains high despite a shaky start to the season—and a TCU team with a rebuilt, fast-paced offense and a defense that can always stay competitive.
The Big 12 was supposed to be wide open, but it wasn't supposed to be this wide open. It should make for a wild season down south.
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings
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