2015 NFL Mock Draft: Post-Week 1 Breakdown
The NFL season is just underway, but it isn't too early to look ahead at what the 2015 draft might hold. Going off the current Super Bowl odds mixed with some opinion as to how the exact hierarchy will shake out, we can begin to get an idea of what will transpire despite it only being Week 1.
Using odds to determine draft order makes a lot of broad assumptions about how a team's season will play out. With that in mind, draft needs are assessed accordingly, so this picture is bound to be far different as the season goes on.
Here is a preliminary look at the 2015 draft after a taste of action in the young 2014 pro football campaign, with the featured, most polarizing picks being analyzed in greater detail.
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Note: Draft order based on Super Bowl odds from Odds Shark. Monday's two games not taken into account.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DE, USC
Somehow the maligned Jags appeared to hit the jackpot in drafting Blake Bortles No. 3 overall in the 2014 draft. But the organization won't unveil him until 2015, leaving the offense to struggle under Chad Henne's guidance.
The thought was a defensive-minded coach like Gus Bradley would have liked to draft defense over Bortles. Bradley will love a guy with Williams' level of determination, as he fought through injury amid a 13-10 win over Stanford this past Saturday. USC head coach Steve Sarkisian praised Williams afterward, via the Los Angeles Daily News' Scott Wolf:
Now Jags general manager Dave Caldwell can give Bradley a big boost up front with Williams, who can learn from the likes of Chris Clemons and Red Bryant in the trenches.
2. Oakland Raiders: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
If this is where the Raiders are drafting, it means they had a horrible year and thus need to address a patchwork roster with a new regime. Gregory is a premium pass-rusher and could even transition to outside linebacker.
In any event, Oakland's defense needs speed to track down mobile quarterbacks, something Gregory provides.
3. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo): Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Presuming the Bills sink again in their second year under EJ Manuel, they unfortunately won't have a high draft pick to spend on a QB. They traded it to Cleveland for Sammy Watkins, and the Browns reap the benefits here. Peat is a cerebral tackle, coming from a pro-style Stanford offense and can fill in at right tackle for Mitchell Schwartz.
4. Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
None of the teams in the top-three are particularly QB-needy, so the Titans will take the best one available if Jake Locker doesn't pan out. Mariota is a dynamic, dual-threat stud with a live arm, a lightning-quick release and he's dangerous on the zone-read option and as a scrambling improviser.
ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit seems to believe Mariota has the goods to be the face of an NFL franchise away from the gridiron, too:
With young weapons such as Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter in place for Tennessee, Mariota would become the instant franchise savior and help the Titans compete in a rather weak AFC South.
5. Cleveland Browns: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The luxury of having two picks in the top five, provided the Browns don't trade and parlay their assets into more future picks, affords the front office the opportunity to grab two elite offensive prospects.
Cooper will be well-prepared for the NFL coming from a prolific Alabama program, and Pete Roussel of CoachingSearch.com observed how Cooper has been utilized by new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin early this season:
The combination of route-running, vision after the catch and the 6'1", 210-pound frame Cooper brings to the field should see him as the first receiver off the board. With Josh Gordon's return on the horizon, Cleveland's prospective QB of the future Johnny Manziel would love to have another target to throw to.
6. New York Jets: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon
The secondary is decimated to start the 2014 season, and if Rex Ryan manages to hold onto his job even with the No. 6 overall pick, he needs better corners to make his schemes work.
Ekpre-Olomu would join Dee Milliner to form one of the most intriguing cornerback duos in the league, and the Oregon standout's fearlessness and physicality are both assets Ryan covets.
7. Minnesota Vikings: Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer continues to build a defense featuring more superior safety play than he ever experienced as a defensive coordinator in Cincinnati. Collins brings attitude to Minnesota, as the Vikings seek to imitate Seattle's sensational safety duo by joining Collins with Harrison Smith.
8. St. Louis Rams: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
The Sam Bradford era has to be over after he tore the same ACL in the preseason finale. Winston won a Heisman and national title for the Seminoles as a freshman. St. Louis has been a quarterback short of contention, and Winston has the goods to help the Rams turn things around fast.
Winston is going to bring a lot of hype with him, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the pros based on how ideal the circumstances were for him to thrive in college. The Rams have been building up the receiver position for Bradford, so Winston will benefit greatly from that.
The question is whether Winston can be good enough right away to help St. Louis get out of the NFC West cellar. An enormous task to be sure, but Winston has answered the bell on the field so far in Tallahassee.
9. Houston Texans: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
Coach Bill O'Brien has been lauded as a QB guru for working with Tom Brady in New England. Warranted or not, he needs a better long-term answer under center to keep his job security intact. Hundley has a big arm, a strong frame and he can make plays with his feet.
Although Hundley's a bit raw in terms of pure accuracy and mechanics, Bortles proved those could be coached up. O'Brien will have to live up to his reputation for the Texans to hit on this pick. Based on Hundley's talent and upside, this should be the play for Houston if he's still available.
Talent doesn't necessarily mean Hundley is a surefire star in the NFL, though, as John Middlekauff of Comcast SportsNet hints in his analysis:
Quarterbacks can be polarizing, and the boom-or-bust potential Hundley has makes him an intriguing prospect to bring under O'Brien's tutelage.
10. Washington Redskins: P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State
With DeAngelo Hall turning 31 in November, there's a need for insurance and depth in Washington's secondary. Grabbing a versatile player like Williams, who has the ability to play both safety and corner, allows for flexibility on the back end of the defense.
11. New York Giants: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Taking a ball-carrier so high seems insane in this day and age, but Gurley is a special case. A triple threat as a runner, pass-catcher and returner, Eli Manning could use someone as dynamic in the backfield to lean on as he enters his second season in a new offense.
Pulling off a maneuver like this professes a lot of faith that Gurley can be a game-changer to the point of helping Manning rally. The Super Bowl MVP has become far more erratic in recent years, and based on this draft position, oddsmakers don't see Manning returning to form in 2014.
Gurley is the best hope for the G-Men to rally back in the NFC East with how big of a splash he can make in the open field.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
A big position of need for America's Team. Calhoun has the raw skills to contribute right away and the charisma to deal with the media spotlight that comes with the Cowboys.
Owner and general manager Jerry Jones still needs to draft as much defense as possible, and Calhoun forms a lethal future edge-rushing duo with Demarcus Lawrence.
13. Miami Dolphins: Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State
The standout on what's a formidable Buckeyes front seven, Bennett can add a new element to Miami's front four. Not many prospects at Bennett's position can be so quick and generate better QB pressure from the inside, something that will come in handy as the Dolphins try to challenge New England for AFC East superiority.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
It would be a shock for Ogbuehi to fall this far based on how strong the line of tackles to come from Texas A&M has been. The Bucs would no doubt be happy to have the Aggie to protect QB Josh McCown for the last part of his career.
15. Carolina Panthers: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Opting to address the need at receiver in 2014 with Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina left a void at left tackle. In light of Cam Newton suffering a rib injury that kept him out for Week 1, the Panthers would be wise to nab Scherff as their next franchise left tackle.
16. Kansas City Chiefs: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
Coming from a West Coast-style offense with the Cardinal makes Montgomery an easy prospect for Chiefs coach Andy Reid to target. Dwayne Bowe is the surest receiver on Kansas City's roster, which isn't saying much. Montgomery has deceptive quickness, a long stride and can be counted on to fill the No. 2 spot from the start.
17. Atlanta Falcons: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
The pass rush looks better at the dawn of 2014, but Beasley would go a long way in helping the Falcons' young secondary even more. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is crafty with his blitzes when he has the proper personnel.
GM Thomas Dimitroff would do well to help that side of the ball with how well QB Matt Ryan and the offense are firing on all cylinders to start the year. Beasley is too undersized to play defensive end, so he'd fill in well on the strong side, allowing Atlanta the flexibility to not deploy three cornerbacks as often.
18. Arizona Cardinals: T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama
Another running back in the first round? It's hard to believe, but yes. Andre Ellington is too diminutive to be counted on as an every-down back, so tabbing Yeldon as his complement is a perfect solution. Both backs are strong receivers, and the Cardinals could rival the stacked backfields in Seattle and San Francisco.
19. Baltimore Ravens: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
It wouldn't be a total shock to see the Ravens get a ball-carrier of their own, but receiver is a pressing need with Steve Smith at the twilight of his career.
There is an argument to be made that Coates could be the best receiver in this class, yet with how often Auburn runs the ball, it's hard to project how he'll adjust to the pros. That concern causes Coates to fall into a great situation in Baltimore.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Against a depleted Browns receiving corps in Week 1, Pittsburgh was gashed in the second half and nearly blew a huge lead at home. Ike Taylor's best football is behind him, so Waynes makes a lot of sense for Dick LeBeau's defense to continue thriving as a speed-demon successor to Taylor in the Steelers secondary.
21. San Diego Chargers: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
D.J. Fluker and Collins would serve as bookends for the offensive line, with QB Philip Rivers continuing to enjoy upgrades in protection. The Chargers should be drafting lower than this and should have a deep playoff run, and the good news is, Collins could still be available should that be the case.
22. Cincinnati Bengals: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
The loss of Michael Johnson to Tampa Bay left a need for a defensive end. In light of Armstead's strong performance versus Michigan State, he ought to be considered a first-round talent.
Rotoworld's Josh Norris highlighted Armstead's value, as he keyed the defensive effort in a 46-27 win:
With his great size (6'8", 290 lbs, per GoDucks.com) and athleticism, the Bengals could throw Armstead into the mix with Carlos Dunlap and Margus Hunt at defensive end to wreak havoc in the AFC North.
23. Detroit Lions: Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
The uncertainty surrounding the futures of both Ndamukong Suh (contract) and Nick Fairley (training-camp demotion) makes defensive tackle a sudden priority in Detroit.
Cornerback is also a possibility here, but in the NFC North, against bruising running backs like Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte, the Lions need to strengthen the interior of their defensive line.
24. Chicago Bears: Kurtis Drummond, FS, Michigan State
A long-term solution for the free-safety spot, Chicago gets Drummond, whose leadership as a Spartans captain should translate well in making a big impression in the Windy City. Drummond is the clear top prospect at his position, forming a promising future on the back end with cornerback Kyle Fuller.
25. Indianapolis Colts: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Having already wasted a first-round pick on Trent Richardson through a trade, one may believe the Colts are shy of taking a running back in the first round.
However, Gordon gives Indianapolis offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton the big-play ability to build the game plan around the run, opening things up for franchise QB Andrew Luck even more. As was evident in the Colts' Week 1 loss in Denver, Richardson is not the answer as the feature back, and Luck doesn't have the necessary balance to help him fulfill his potential.
26. Philadelphia Eagles: Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (Florida)
DeMeco Ryans has a maximum of one year remaining in Philadelphia. Either he stays behind to mentor the immensely gifted Perryman or the Hurricanes star steps in to give the Eagles a jolt of speed and playmaking in the front seven.
27. Green Bay Packers: Devin Funchess, TE, Michigan
Funchess is making the transition into more of a receiver in Ann Arbor, but the Packers could just stick him at tight end. Since losing Jermichael Finley, Green Bay hasn't enjoyed someone with Funchess' upside to contribute to the passing game. Adding him to the fold would make QB Aaron Rodgers and Co. borderline unstoppable.
28. San Francisco 49ers: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Losing two corners to Oakland in Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers leaves the Niners thin in the defensive backfield.
Peters has been benched early in the year at Washington for an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty, but the Niners have succeeded in spite of some character concerns with a number of their players. They have the organizational infrastructure to groom Peters into a solid starter.
29. New Orleans Saints: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
After being lit up like a Christmas tree by Ryan and the Falcons for 448 yards through the air, New Orleans could use someone like Fowler to rotate in, having registered just one sack to start the new year.
Fowler is lighter than the prototype for a 3-4 defensive end, yet the Saints could use him in Rob Ryan's schemes as a stand-up player to cause confusion in blitz packages amid obvious passing situations.
30. New England Patriots: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
Brady hasn't been given a lot of truly viable weapons to throw to in recent years. With his career ambling closer to its conclusion, Bill Belichick may want to consider helping Brady more in that regard. In comes the 6'3", 215-pound Strong, whose friendliness as a big red-zone target would aid Brady's quest for a fourth Lombardi Trophy.
31. Denver Broncos: Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
Unless Perryman is still on the board, Denver elects to go with the defense again here with Kendricks.
The Pac-12's leading average tackler from 2012 quite simply has a nose for the ball (h/t UCLABruins.com), an ability to diagnose plays and fill up running lanes in addition to solid coverage skills. As Peyton Manning leads the offense, the Broncos need a QB with the compatibility for the defense now and moving forward.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Mario Edwards Jr., DE, Florida State
Losing Clemons and Bryant to the Jaguars makes defensive end the top need, even with Cliff Avril and veteran Michael Bennett still in the fold. Receiver could be another option here, but if Percy Harvin proves capable of staying healthy, QB Russell Wilson likely won't need another weapon.
A Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Denver seems hard to imagine in this age of NFL parity, yet it seems as possible as any repeat encounter in recent memory. The Seahawks, with Harvin healthy, and the Broncos' improved defense hints that the two could battle for the Lombardi yet again.
As mentioned before, though, the NFL season is still far from over, so just as is the case with these picks, it isn't safe to pencil Seattle and Denver in for the Super Bowl just yet. There have been some surprises even among the worst perceived teams in the early goings, so it will be interesting to take an updated look at the 2015 NFL draft when the season is a little more defined.
Until then, the speculation can continue, and teams whose fanbases are losing hope at this point can look ahead to the future with optimism.
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
