'Who Needs Reality?': Fantasy Football Sit-Start Dilemmas for Week 1 of 2014

During my junior of college, a classmate and I started a fantasy football website which we dubbed "Who Needs Reality?" I served as Editor-in-Chief of the site while my buddy, a business-minded marketing major, dealt with the advertising and financial aspects. Together, we registered as an LLC, "hired" a staff of five or six friends in a variety of roles, and took on about 15 writing interns from colleges across the country. 

In a year's time, we created steady, flowing content, developed a small-yet-passionate fanbase, created webshows and podcasts, and sponsored a keg race. (A very fun night — so I'm told.) 

After the yearlong run, we all decided that our focus should go to interning for established companies and preparing for our post-college lives. I took an internship as an NFL researcher for the Elias Sports Bureau, and in November, I did not renew the GoDaddy subscription for the Who Needs Reality? URL. 

source: Who Needs Reality?

Despite it's short run, Who Needs Reality?, or WNR? as it's known on hundreds of bumpers stickers that are likely still clinging to street signs around New York City, was an invaluable learning experience for me as a young writer and editor. Perhaps even more enriching was the unique bonding it provided to a few of my college friends and I. 

Thanks to a strong cult following, (one person counts as a cult, right?) I am beyond thrilled to bring back Who Needs Reality? this season. I'll be publishing this column every Thursday morning, bringing you the finest and greatest fantasy football start/sit advice, statistical projections that will make you think I'm a time-traveling Doctor Emmett Brown, and humor-laced nonsense that will make you think I'm insane. 

Then again, sanity is overrated. Reality is overrated. Who needs reality, anyway? 

I certainly don't. 

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Unfortunately, I'm publishing this opening-week column after the season-opener between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers. Luckily, there wasn't too much advice to give on this game. The whole Seattle team looked stellar, and PPR owners were especially pleased with Seattle wide receiver Percy Harvin, who caught seven balls while collecting 100 all-purpose yards.

The Green Bay Packers didn't look as hot, but it's Week 1, and you weren't going to sit Aaron Rodgers or Eddie Lacy anyway. At least wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb still turned in decent games during the losing effort. 

I like to call Week 1 of the NFL season "Mystery Week." We can project and predict all we want about who is going to come out running, but the truth of the matter is we have no clue. The NFL preseason does a terrible job forecasting the regular season; until we see starters in regular-season action with full effort, we just don't know. 

That being said, the season opener is supposed to be that one blessed week when everyone on our fantasy rosters is healthy and ready to go.

Eh, not this year.

Arizona Cardinals running back Andre Ellington looks like he'll be out for Monday's game against the San Diego Chargers. I recommend taking the safe route and starting someone else from another team, yet if you're an Ellington owner and wait until game time, you must add Jonathan Dwyer. If Ellington sits, Dwyer will see a fair amount of action against a fairly awful San Diego run defense. 

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree is also flirting with the injury bug already. He's listed as questionable for Sunday's game at the Dallas Cowboys. I'd be surprised if Crabtree doesn't play, but beware, suiting up is no guarantee of him performing well. Nonetheless, it's Week 1, so if you drafted Crabtree to be your No. 2 wide receiver, play him as such. 

Now, let's move onto The Good Kids and The Bad Kids, as I like to call them. The Good Kids are players whom you're going to want to start, and The Bad Kids are those whom you are going to want to keep on your bench. Really fancy, I know. 

Please remember that I use a standard scoring system when projecting these points:

• 1 point per 10 rushing or receiving yards
• 1 point per 25 passing yards
• 6 points per each rushing or receiving touchdown
• 4 points for passing touchdowns
• -2 points for interceptions and fumbles lost

Finally, please remember that I am never going to preview "studs" here, or players whom you drafted in your first or second rounds and should thereby always start. This would be boring and unnecessary. You know who these guys are, and they should always be in your starting lineup barring injury. 

Now, onto The Good Kids! Candy for all of them!

Quarterback to Start:

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At quarterback, I love Geno Smith of the New York Jets. I can't believe I'm saying that, actually, but Smith has a great opportunity here to open the 2014 on a strong note, give false hope to Jets' fans (all 19 of them) and then implode by week 8. Facing an awful Oakland Raiders defense, expect 320 passing yards and three touchdowns for Geno. Add in another 35 yards on the ground and subtract for an interception, and you're looking at a solid fantasy performance. 25 points. 

Other solid ball throwers: 

• Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: 330 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception = 19 points
• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception = 24 points
• Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: 240 yards, 2 touchdowns = 17 points

Flying under the radar: Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Bucs

McCown is in great shape to a have a big game. I'm high on the Bucs this year, and I'm low on the Carolina Panthers. I think their defense will fall back to reality, and McCown has three receiving options at 6'5" or taller: receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans and tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. Red-zone threats much? McCown is a sexy start in 2-QB leagues. 

Running Backs to Start: 

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My pick of the week here Rashad Jennings of the New York Giants. Jennings is set to be a star in a Giants offense that will be otherwise subpar, and he'll finally rid himself of that "guy who I think backs up Maurice Jones-Drew" stigma.

It's not a great matchup, as the Detroit Lions were solid against the run last year, but I like Jennings to have a nice role as a receiver as well. Expect 78 rushing yards and five receptions for 34 yards and one touchdown through the air. 16 points. (21 in PPR)

Other solid ball-carriers: 

• C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: I picked him first in my drafts last year and he burnt me. I avoided him this year, so yea, karma's a bitch. (And the entire fantasy football world clearly revolves around me.) 
• Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns: He's really talented, yet was never healthy or was always "Arian Foster's replacement" in Houston. He finds his stride this year, and it starts in the season opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 
• Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: Every year Frank Gore is written off as "too old" or simply "done." Every year, he proves people wrong. He slid majorly in drafts this year, and I think he's going to reward those owners who took him. Great Week 1 matchup against the Dallas "I Could Play Defense for Them and Not be the Worst Guy On the Field" Cowboys. 

Wide Receivers to Start: 

The Week 1 wide receiver to start is Emmanuel Sanders of the Denver Broncos. Now, full disclosure, this is a homer pick, as I do eat, sleep and breathe Denver football, yet it's also a great pick.

Sanders steps into the bona fide no. 2 receiver role in Denver. Expect Denver to move around the versatile receiver and get him the ball. Expect a touchdown, 7 receptions, and 73 yards. 13 points. (20 in PPR)

Other solid ball-catchers: 

• T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: Just to prove I'm not exclusively a Colorado Cheerleader homer, I'll pick against the Broncos here. Hilton is super speedy, and while the Denver defense will be better than last year, Hilton is still going to burn us, I mean them, at least twice. 
  
• Eric Decker, New York Jets: Mr. Pretty Boy is going to do okay in New York. He won't have the season he had in Denver last year, yet he's the No. 1 target for Geno and I think he'll excel in this role. I'd be surprised if he doesn't finish as a top-20 receiver, well above where he was drafted. 
• Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Bucs: When the season is said and done, it will be Evans who will be the top rookie wide receiver. His fantastic campaign will start this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. He's fast enough to break ankles on the ground, and big enough to simply snap ankles in his hand. 

Flying under the radar: Cody Latimer, Denver Broncos. Again, a homer pick, but I like Latimer this week to have a breakout NFL debut. He's got the size (6'3", 220 lbs) to be the new Eric Decker in Denver, and with Welker out, Sanders will be seeing more slot time. Look for Latimer to score, and if you're desperate, throw him in your lineup. A great start for 14- and 16-team leagues. 

Tight Ends to Start: 

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The name to know this week is Dennis Pitta of the Baltimore Ravens. I love Pitta, who returns this season from injury, to have a big year. The Ravens take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday; Pitta has a great history against them and the Bengals don't do a great job at covering tight ends.

I'm calling for six receptions, TWO touchdowns, and 85 receiving yards. 20 points. (26 in PPR)

Other solid big guys who catch balls: 

• Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler loves him some Martellus. Bennett fell off the radar a bit with Cutler out, but with his quarterback healthy and ready to go, (see: Other Solid Ball Throwers) I expect Bennett to open his 2014 season on the right foot. 
• Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have very little receivers to pick from. Simply put, Kelce is the best option. Don't let Anthony "I'm Never Relevant" Fasano scare you on the depth chart. He's a Jersey-boy like me—we're not to be trusted. 
• Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: This season, the Chargers may show us that the success of one tight end is not mutually exclusive the success of another. This might be the case with Gates and Ladarius Green. Still, I'm unsure about that law of exclusivity, so go with Gates this week. He's the safer option against the Cardinals who were very loose against tight ends last year.
  • UPDATE 9/7/2014: Gates is apparently questionable for Monday's game. If he does not play, Ladarius Green becomes a No. 1 tight end without question. 

Defenses to Start: 

Give me the New York Jets at home against the Oakland Raiders in what is sure to be Slopfest '14. Rookie quarterback Derek Carr is manning the saddle for Oakland, and I don't like this cowboy's chances in Week 1. 

Other solid defenses: 

• Pittsburgh Steelers (home against the Cleveland Browns)
• Chicago Bears (away against the Buffalo Bills)

Now, onto The Bad Kids! They need a timeout on your bench!

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Quarterback to Sit:

• Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Big Cam is my sit of the week at quarterback. I have this nasty taste in the back of my throat that Tampa Bay is gonna come out swinging in the season opener, and this includes on defense. Newton has been battling some injuries, and his best receiver is a rookie (see: Wide Receivers to Sit). If you drafted a No. 2 quarterback after Newton in your draft, you could consider him. 
• Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Did anyone notice that haircut Andy Dalton is rocking? He looks like he's a freshman in high school trying to look cool for picture day. Well, Andrew, you have a great running back in Giovani Bernard, and you're historically bad against the Baltimore Ravens, (11 picks to six touchdowns) so you can take a seat on the bench. 
• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: What? The game already happened? 

Running Backs to Sit: 

• Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans: Sankey was going high in many leagues this year, and while this could just be wishful thinking for the future, bear in mind that Shonn Greene will still get most of the carries this week for Tennessee. Sankey could be the main man by Week 5 or so, but not right now. 
• Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons: I'll probably tell you to sit Jackson all year, so decide when not to listen to me now. 
• Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins: This is a wimpy pick on my end. I hope you weren't planning on starting Miller. But if you were, that's dumb. Knowshon Moreno could dominate the share of carries. He's the favorite; Miller is a bad kid. 

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Wide Receivers to Sit: 

• Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers: I'm really sorry to everyone who drafted Allen to be their No. 1 receiver, but I don't like him at all this week. LET ME BE CLEAR: IF YOU OWN HIM, PLAY HIM. I've been wrong before, and I'll be wrong many times again. But I think Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson can easily shut down Allen. 
• Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers: Kudos to all you hipsters who drafted the rookie, because he's going to have a fine season. Week 1 is not going to earn him a gold star, though. I don't like anything about the Panthers this week. 
• Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: Again, congrats to all you savvy thinkers who picked up Watkins. He's got big rookie-season potential. But I don't like him banged up and going against a solid Chicago Bears secondary. 

Tight Ends to Sit: 

• Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins: I haven't liked Charles Clay ever, so this season is no different. He was able to occasionally find the end zone last year, and I think that ability disappears this season, along with his relevancy. 
• Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers: Miller is poised for a bounce-back season, and I think the veteran has it in him. I don't think Week 1 against the Browns is where he starts, however. 
• Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons: Terrible start, I don't even see him on the depth chart! Oh, he retired. 

Defenses to Sit: 

• San Francisco 49ers (at Dallas Cowboys): The 49ers were drafted to be a stellar unit, yet they are ridiculously banged up, suspended and just have an all-around bad matchup this week against Dallas. This game might end up being 75-65 with the lack of defense that will exist. 
• Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Bucs): Have I mentioned I'm low on the Panthers this week? Damn, well, I sound like a broken record, but seriously, the Panthers are going to stink this year. 

Well, that concludes the Week 1 column and the first group of good kids and bad kids! 

Now, if you'd like to email me some fantasy football questions, you can do so at [e-mail]. 

I don't promise to open, read or reply to the email, but I do promise that Google will deliver your mail safely and promptly!

Seriously though, I will try to reply to as many emails as I can in between writing my Game of Thrones fan fiction. I'll also be starting off next week's column, and every week from here on out, with a full disclosure portion. Here, I'll discuss all the great picks I made and ignore and/or make excuses for why some of my predictions didn't pan out. 

Have a great Week 1 everyone. Remember, above all, listen to your gut, then your heart...and then your mother. If you have a feeling about a certain player, go for it, even if it doesn't make sense.

Logic is overrated. Reality is overrated. 

Who Needs Reality? 

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All stats courtesy of NFL.com.