Come To Think Of It: Losing GMs Can Benefit from the Art of Listening

There is a fundamental shift occurring in major league baseball regarding how non-contending teams attempt to build a winner. And this shift may just cost your team its best player.

No, I'm not talking about trading a player that is headed to free agency. That is a financial reality that has existed for a long time for many teams.

What I'm suggesting is that teams are finding that simple mathematics are at work here, specifically that one piece is often better turned into three or four pieces.

In this economy, and with so much parity in major league baseball, blockbuster trades likely won’t be as plentiful this year as in some years past.

But if I’m the GM of a team that is out of the race, I’m at least listening to offers for my top players.

I mean, why not? The downside is that the player might hear the rumors and get offended, and you might rile up your fan base somewhat.

But the upside is that you just might get blown away by an offer that you simply can’t refuse.

Look, one player, no matter how good, cannot affect a baseball team's chances at success anywhere similar to how one great player can impact an NBA team, for instance.

Or even an NFL team, especially if that player is a star quarterback.

Recognizing that, either you have to spend wildly and try to win through free agency (how has that worked out for teams like the Yankees and Cubs?).

Or, you have to scout and develop your own players, which can take many years.

Perhaps you can speed up that process by trading your star player, even younger ones who are under financial control and performing at a very high level.

While the MLB draft has received greater exposure recently, it is still more of a crap shoot than any other major sport.

Recognizing that, perhaps the easiest and quickest strategy toward building a winner is to trade your top player for a package of young players that have already demonstrated some level of competency.

There is strength in numbers, so this strategy pays dividends over simply building through the draft.

You see, the more top prospects you have, the greater the probability that some of them will turn into stars.

This is no salary dump I'm proposing here. This is not a situation where you trade a player you're going to lose to free agency soon so you're willing to take whatever you can get.

I'm talking about moving your best player. Or at least allowing yourself to listen to offers.

But, while the MLB Trade Rumors website would absolutely love for this to be true, is this a trend that we’re going to see? Well, the early returns say maybe so.

Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi is finally listening to offers for his ace pitcher Roy Halladay.

The Cleveland Indians may be at least considering deals for Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.

The Pirates have moved Jason Bay and Nate McLouth, and will likely soon be moving Freddy Sanchez.

This is by no means a foolproof strategy. It certainly carries risk. Risk of turning off your fans, for instance.

Yet look at Pittsburgh. Their fans are angry about the players they have been moving, but if I’m ownership, I figure that the losing is going to anger them just as much anyway.

Hey, if a decade-plus of losing doesn’t stop you from being a fan of a team, why would a couple of trades?

I know that fans like watching their favorite players, and sometimes they are the only reason to even consider watching a losing team.

But, as they say, if you build a winner, they will come. 

If your team is going to follow this strategy, it is vital that they have a strong scouting and development team in place. It is simply not acceptable to miss if you trade your best player.

True, you may not hit on all players you get in return, but if at least two of them don’t become winning baseball players, you will be killed by fans and writers alike. And it will likely cost you your job.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, “Some teams, like the Red Sox, are sending multiple scouts to watch players since they want to be more confident in their evaluations.”

Olney goes on to say that “Teams have adopted a ‘broader use of statistics in evaluating players.’”  All this in an attempt to have better assurance that, if you do decide to make a trade, you are going to get a return that will eventually make the transaction worthwhile.

Take a player like the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez, for example. He is not on the block right now. But at 24, and with a reasonable contract, the outstanding San Diego first baseman would likely garner a tremendous return if he were offered up on the market.

He is above average defensively; hits for both power and average, and is young and locked up financially. Think the Boston Red Sox wouldn’t salivate over such a high OBP player as Gonzalez?

You get the point.

Keep in mind that you don’t have to follow through on a trade if no one blows you away with an offer. But you should be at least willing to listen. And the first step is to let it be known to your GM colleagues that you are listening to offers. That way, you ensure that you get the most participation and thus, the best offers.

Again, with so much parity, this strategy may not become as commonplace as one might think. But it’s an interesting idea and certainly one that has some merit.

Hey, you might lose a favorite player, but you just might gain a winning team, come to think of it.