Getting Defensive: Boston Needs Outside Help For Shot at World Series

The Boston Red Sox lead the AL East with a record of 51-34, good for second in Major League Baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their two main contenders for the division crown, the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, sit 0.0 GB and 4.5 GB respectively. The Sox rank third in run scoring in the American League at 5.22/G and second in run prevention at 4.36/G. All seems well in Beantown; however, behind the great hitting and pitching lies a defense converting a paltry 67.7% of balls in play into outs. They rank dead last in the junior circuit, 29th of 30 in baseball, ahead of only the lowly Washington Nationals. Improving the defense would put Boston well on their way to an AL East title and heavy favorites to represent the league in the World Series.

Acquiring defensive talent has become the cheap, trendy way of significantly improving a roster after the Rays jumped from the worst defensive team in 2007 (65.6) to the best in 2008 (71.0) on their way to the AL pennant. The topic was discussed during Fox Sports’ coverage of the World Series and at various points over at the Boo-Yah Network*, so the idea certainly made its way into the mainstream. I am sure the craptastic nature of the defense has not escaped the eyes of Boston’s front office, as they are one of the more forward-thinking organizations in baseball. Picking the best of those skilled with the leather has been made easier by the development of defensive metrics, statistics based on how a player tracks down balls within a given range, the movement of the baserunner(s) on a specific play, and a number of other factors.

UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) is a metric developed by FanGraphs. It measures how many runs above (or below) average a certain player is. Catchers are exempt from the statistic with the overwhelming number of hit balls ending well outside their theoretical fielding range; thus, there are not enough opportunities to make their numbers valid.

Boston Red Sox (UZR)

C- Jason Varitek (N/A)
1B- Mark Kotsay (N/A)
2B- Dustin Pedroia (5.0)
3B- Kevin Youkilis (3.1 1B; -0.5 3B)
SS- Nick Green (3.3)
LF- Jason Bay (-7.8)
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (-6.4)
RF- JD Drew (5.0)

C- George Kottaras (N/A)
1B- Aaron Bates (N/A)
SS- Julio Lugo (-6.8)
OF- Rocco Baldelli (-3.9)

DL 1B- Jeff Bailey (0.4)
DL 3B- Mike Lowell (-8.0)
DL SS- Jed Lowrie (2008: 5.9 SS; 2.1 3B)

Mike Lowell is currently on the DL, so Boston’s defensive lineup looks a little different these days; however, he is due back right after the All Star break and should be in the daily lineup.

Youkilis has split time between the corner infield spots, but he should move across the diamond to his 1B position once Lowell returns. He is one of the few above average fielders in this set, but playing the hot corner decreases his defensive value by almost half a win. Even so, his glove work is better there than Lowell, who is last on the team in UZR, more than likely removed from his outstanding defensive season just a year ago. Some of the problem could be the hip injury that’s been bothering him of late and currently has him on the disabled list, so I would not be surprised if he did rebound a little and outdo his Tony Batista-like performance so far at 3B (UZR data goes back to 2002, when Batista posted a -18.5 with Baltimore and became the first to finish last among 3B qualifiers). Up the middle, Boston features the man with the honor of being the Sox’ best fielder, reigning AL MVP 2B Dustin Pedroia, and an adequate fielder in SS Nick Green. Production is there at the keystone, but Green needs to be a little more slick with the glove to make his bat (.259/.318/.399) worth keeping.

The infield options off the bench do not offer much relief for the pitching staff in the late innings. Julio Lugo, who has split time at SS with the aforementioned Green, is certainly the better hitter, but on the field, he has been spotty at best throughout his career to downright atrocious this season. An infield featuring an old, rehabbing Lowell along with Lugo on the left side, is a formula for seeing-eye singles to become the fashion of Fenway Park. The trio of Bates, Bailey, and Kotsay are not difference makers and any combination of the three off the bench serves to let Youkilis take a day off here and there. I assure you Jeff Bailey will not be trotting out to 1B in the late innings to lend a defensive hand. SS Jed Lowrie posted above average numbers at two positions in 2008, but who knows how his knee will react or how his wrist will affect him as he comes back after a rehab assignment at Pawtucket?

The outfield resembles a Morris Buttermaker-led unit more than a professional baseball team. Jason Bay is last among Major League LF qualifiers, offering a defense no better than the well documented struggles of the exiled Manny Ramirez; however, his bat handling skills, to the tune of .263/.376/.537, more than make up for his blunders afield. Jacoby Ellsbury, thief of 37 bases, shows how speed does not necessarily translate to defensive success. His CF play is a little more Marquis Grissom, a little less Willie Mays. JD Drew provides the only above average defense of Boston’s outfield. While a 5.0 UZR is good, the other pieces make him the demigod of the unit.

Once a decent to good CF for the Rays, Rocco Baldelli has been reduced to a backup OF role with the Sox and his defense has gone the way of age and his unique medical condition. He’s there to hit well in limited playing time, which he’s done (.278/.360/.468), but Terry Francona will not run him out there to track down fly balls late, since he is no better than his hapless teammates out there. A healthy Red Sox roster means Kotsay should be one of the last players off the bench, where defensive depth is imperative, but even he does not add much value. He has not posted a positive UZR since his first season in Oakland, 2004.

Bay, Ellsbury, and Lowell, the below average starting fielders, all carry above average to great bats, so the Sox will not look for any serious replacements there. Drew, Pedroia, and Youkilis are safe for the same reason, adding already above average gloves. That leaves SS as the only area worth upgrading on a large scale and exploring some defensive filler for the OF. Scouring the lists of free agents after this season and next season yields the following list of good defenders with expiring contracts along with a playful addition of my own:

SS Marco Scutaro TOR 6.2 UZR, .283/.382/.413
SS Jack Wilson PIT 10.5 UZR, .270/.304/.403
OF David DeJesus KC 12.6 UZR, .255/.309/.414
OF Chris Young ARI 1.7 UZR, .198/.301/.417

Whatever the merits of trading intra-division, moving Scutaro from Toronto to Boston could be promising for both teams. The Red Sox need a good fielding shortstop with at least an average bat. Even when he reverts to career levels, Scutaro’s that and gravy. He is in the midst of a career year and an obvious upgrade over Green and Lugo. Scutaro’s due $1.1 million this season, so the financial hit is miniscule. The Jays have to listen to offers for any package of middling, upside prospects because the value of a 33 year old in the final year of his contract on a non-contender is moot.

It pains me to advocate a trade for a walk averse, light hitting shortstop, but the roster screams for a defensive upgrade. Jack Wilson’s bat is better than Green’s, but Lugo trumps him in that category. Wilson’s glove is a significant step up from Green’s and leagues better than Lugo’s. Neal Huntington wants prospects of any stripe, so there is a deal to be had here. He does not figure in to Pittsburgh’s long term plans and his contract can be torn up after this season. He’s owed $7.25 million and has an $8.4 million option for 2010. I see a $600,000 buyout in his future; no matter what uniform he’s wearing at the end of the season.

Should Boston rely on improvement from Lowell at 3B and choose to keep splitting Green and Lugo at SS, they can still look to add depth in the outfield. DeJesus is not much of a hitter, but replacing Ellsbury in the late innings would do wonders for the Sox. If the Royals CF were roaming the outfield at Fenway, he could save something on the order of 20 runs, roughly 2 wins. He signed a 5-year, $13.8 million contract in 2006 and has a $6 million club option for 2011.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not contending and their disappointing young outfielder is not producing. When he came up, scouts were raving about the next superstar. He responded by hitting .235/.303/438 in 1686 career PA with 390 SO. Josh Byrnes may sell off the CF for a lesser package of prospects due to his low career opening numbers. The Red Sox benefit in the short term by getting a solid fielder who can spell Ellsbury and hope that a change of scenery helps him to reach the levels expected as he ascended through the minor leagues. He’s locked up through 2013 and has a club option for 2014.

New Look Boston Red Sox (UZR)

C- Jason Varitek (N/A)
1B- Kevin Youkilis (3.1)
2B- Dustin Pedroia (5.0)
3B- Mike Lowell (-8.0)
SS- Marco Scutaro (6.2) or Jack Wilson (10.5)
LF- Jason Bay (-7.8)
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury (-6.4)
RF- JD Drew (5.0)

C- George Kottaras (N/A)
SS- Julio Lugo (-6.8)
IF- Jed Lowrie (2008: 5.9 SS; 2.1 3B)
OF- David DeJesus (12.6) or Chris Young (1.7)
OF- Rocco Baldelli (-3.9)

The Red Sox can mash and pitch with the best teams in baseball. Adding quality defensive talent at the SS and OF positions would make an already great team even better. Boston can save a ton of runs for a relatively cheap price and improve their chances for a World Series title.

*ESPN for those who do not tune in to Chicago sports radio.

Thanks to Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the data.