Good Jays/Bad Jays: Toronto Blue Jays 2009 Mid-Season Report

Most knowledgeable MLB observers picked the 2009 Toronto Blue Jays to finish last in the American League East. At the season's halfway point, the Jays are in fourth place (42-39) and fading.

The basement is still within the realm of possibility, but the Orioles appear to have a solid lock on it for the time being.

The Jays tore out of the starting gate like thoroughbreds—best record in the American League—passing the quarter pole at 27-14. Since then, the team's record is 15-25, a .375 winning percentage. Only the hapless Washington Nationals at .295 overall have been worse.

The Jays are still a competitive baseball team, but fans who believe the current edition is a very good team that can contend for first place in the AL East or at least make the playoffs are living in a dream world.

Considering the teams modest $75 million payroll, to make the playoffs the five highest-salaried players have to achieve outstanding results. Of this group—Halladay, Ryan, Wells, Rolen and Rios—only Harry Leroy “Doc” Halladay is having a great year.

Ryan has been ineffective in the majority of his outings. Wells and Rios' offensive production has been at the journeyman level.

Despite Rolen's current career-best streak for hitting in consecutive games, the fact remains he only has 29 RBI halfway through the season.

2009 Prospects

The Jays' prospects, in terms of making the playoffs this year, are bleak. The main weaknesses are an inconsistent rookie-laden starting rotation, frequently ineffective relief pitching, and clutch hitting which game-to-game runs the gamut from occasionally good to more often horrible.

For the balance of the season, it is very unlikely that Toronto will make up ground on the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. The young, talented Rays play a hyper-aggressive style of ball and are surging; the Red Sox are rock-solid with no apparent weaknesses; the Yankees, well, are the Yankees.

Any team that can afford to shore up its shortcomings by signing three free agents to contracts worth a total of close to half a billion dollars deserves to win. Ask any Yankee fan.

Bright Spots

The most positive aspect of the current season is the emergence of three young stars, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Rickey Romero.

Lind and Hill's combined hitting production (.300+ average, 36 home runs, 113 RBI's) has been remarkable.

Rookie of the Year candidate Romero is pitching like a seasoned No.2 starter. He's 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA despite losing a couple of games when he first came off the disabled list before regaining his early-season form.

Three veterans are having career years. Former reserve player, SS Marco Scutaro (.381 on-base percentage, 53 walks, 59 runs), has been one of the most productive lead-off hitters in baseball.

Closer Jason Frasor is currently the team's best short reliever (1.95 ERA) thanks partly to a new splitter-change he developed in spring training.

Closer Scott Downs, now on the DL, has a 1.98 ERA with eight saves in nine opportunities.

The Jays fielding has been lights-out all year. The team makes all the routine plays and more than a few highlight-reel gems every game. Toronto has both the most chances and fewest errors in the American League. Can't get any better than that.

Canadian Scott Richmond has come out of nowhere to become a solid No. 5 starting pitcher.

Although he's been lit up in three or four times—generally it's been one bad inning—he has a very respectable 3.69 ERA and a 6-5 won-loss record, both of which are much above average for a fifth starter.

There are a whole lot of MLB teams whose No. 5's would love to have Richmond's numbers.

The three Blue Jays veteran catchers, Rod Barajas, Raul Chavez and Michael Barrett, have combined for 11 home runs and 48 RBI. If they put up similar numbers in the second half, they'll end with 20+ HR's and 90 to 100 RBI.

That's exceptional run production for players who generally hit in the No. 8 or No. 9 slots. The trio have thrown out 36 percent of base runners trying to steal, which more than doubles the numbers from the Gregg Zaun era.

Besides, watching Barajas chugging his 250 pounds flat out around the bases is in itself worth the price of admission.

Weaknesses

Several of the veteran everyday players are having either below-average or mediocre years, and the pitching staff has been decimated with injuries. The team has had to rely on its younger players to play key roles. Young players are generally inconsistent.

In addition, the Jays have two major team weaknesses; ineffective hitting with runners in scoring position and a genius-level ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Following are a couple of typical examples.

In the Jays 81st game, starter Brian Tallet was sailing along with a 2-1 lead heading into the bottom of the fifth against the Yankees. That's when New York scored what turned out to be the two winning runs on one infield hit that traveled less than 50 feet.

How? Just throw in three walks and a passed ball. You get the picture. Although Tallet pitched a quality start—six complete, two earned runs—he lost the game.

On May 24, during the team's nine-game losing skid, ace Roy Halladay blanked the Braves for seven innings. Reliever Jesse Carlson allowed a run in the eighth and lost it 1-0. Aaron Hill doubled in the top of the ninth, but Alex Rios and Vernon Wells both grounded out to end the game.

The Braves starter, Kenshin Kawakami, had given up five runs in less than five innings in his previous start and had lost five of his last six decisions. No matter what the odds, never bet on the Jays.

Starting Pitching

Jays had the best pitching in baseball in 2008. At the beginning of the 2009 season, Toronto's new rotation included Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch, David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond.

Purcey has been demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas. Halladay and Romero have both been on the disabled list. Litsch and Richmond are currently on the DL, along with four other starters: Shaun Marcum, Bobby Ray, Dustin McGowan and Casey Janssen.

A call up, top prospect Brad Cecil, initially had a couple of quality starts, but is now pitching wild high and has become too hittable. As soon as other starters become available, he'll likely be returned to Las Vegas.

Another call up, Brad Mills, lacking in both velocity and control, has already been sent back to Vegas. Veteran Brian Tallet, a converted long/middle relief pitcher, has somehow avoided the DL and will definitely not be demoted to Vegas.

Jays 2009 starting pitching has regressed from reasonably effective to the present patchwork shambles. It has steadily contributed to the team's decline.

Relief Pitching

In spring training, Jays relief pitching looked solid. It was much the same staff that had the best era in MLB the previous two years. Cito Gaston was particularly impressed with the lefties: B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson and Brian Tallet.

Tallet is now a sometimes-effective starter. Ryan and Carlson have ERA's over five, and Downs is on the DL with a toe injury.

The righties haven't fared much better. In recent weeks, only Dirk Hayhurst and Jason Fraser have been consistently getting batters out.

Overall, injuries and inconsistency have reduced a great relief corps to mediocrity. This has contributed to the Jays' decline from the best ERA in MLB in 2008 to ninth in the American League at the halfway point this year.

Hitting

After their first 41 games, the Jays (27-14) led the American League in runs scored. Then the team embarked on a nine-game road trip—lost 'em all—and quit hitting with runners in scoring position.

Clutch hitting has been a main issue ever since. It fell from .305 in the first quarter to .214 in the second. The Jays still lead the AL in hits and doubles after 81 games, but the team has dropped to sixth in runs scored.

It took more than 30 games for Cito Gaston to get around to shuffling his batting order (to group the most productive hitters together at the front end) and very recently the Jays have been scoring more runs.

Position Player Ratings After 81 Games

C – Rod Barajas (.268-8-39-24) - A

Barajas is having an very good year. Besides handling the pitching staff well, he throws out 35 percent of base runners trying to steal. With 39 RBI at the halfway mark, he'll likely exceed his previous season's best (60) by about 30 percent.

1B – Lyle Overbay (.260-9-41-28) - B

Overbay's numbers are deceptive. He's only started 59 of the teams first 81 games because he's often platooned with Kevin Millar. Overbay's hitting just a few percentage points over .200 against LHP. Although he's a great defensive first baseman, management expects full-season offensive numbers closer to .300-25-100-100 from a 1B earning $7,950,000.

2B – Aaron Hill (.297-19-56-48) - AA

Hill, now one of the best second basemen in MLB, richly deserves his inclusion on the AL all-star team. He tends to be a streaky hitter, who can wear out the best MLB pitchers when he's red hot. In less than half a season, Hill has broken Robbie Alomar's Blue Jays home run record (17) for second basemen.

SS – Marco Scutaro (.283-6-33-59) – A+

Given the opportunity to play regularly this season, Scutaro is having a career year. One of the most productive lead off hitters in baseball, he is second in walks (53) in the AL, third in runs scored (59) and has a .381 on-base percentage.

His fielding has been phenomenal. He's committed just two errors in 366 chances. At $1,100,000, the 33 year-old Scutaro is an incredible bargain; champagne results for beer money.

3B – Scott Rolen (.331-6-29-44) – B+

Although Rolen's fielding has been spectacular and his batting average is second in the AL, his run production (29 RBI's) has been mediocre. Recently, he was moved to the clean up spot behind Adam Lind, so he ought to improve to 40-50 RBI's in the second half. Rolen is working on a career-best 20+ game hitting streak at the season's halfway point.

LF/DH – Adam Lind (.309-17-55-48) - AA

Lind is having a break-out year and has become the Jays most consistent all-around hitter. Although he started the season as the DH, he has taken over in left field since Travis Snider's demotion to Vegas.

Recently moved up to third in the batting order, Lind has a powerful, picture-perfect swing and a talent for clutch hitting.

He has worked hard on his outfield play and is now a credible fielder. Lind has been playing at an all-star level and more than deserves to make the AL all-star team.

CF – Vernon Wells (.252-8-37-40) - C

Wells is having an off-year, although he's still one of the best center fielders in MLB. At one point this season, he had a 37-game home run drought. Toward the end of the season's first half he resumed hitting with authority and he may still end the year with over 90 RBI.

He's a gifted athlete who's been his team's best position player for the last five years. Wells has to put up huge numbers for the Jays to have any hope of contending.

RF – Alex Rios (.262-9-41-38) - C+

Rios' talents are kind of wasted in right field. He could be one the game's premier center fielders, but there's no way he's ever going to displace Vernon Wells. Although his numbers aren't bad, they are way below his actual potential. A trade would do his career a world of good, but other teams won't give up real value for potential.

Rios recently struck out five times in one game. In baseball parlance, three strikeouts is called the Hat Trick and four strikeouts, the Golden Sombrero. But five strikeouts? How about the Platinum Snood?

For the uninitiated, a snood is one of those hairnets that make food-services people look funny. If Gaston obliged Rios wear one of those suckers for 48 hours, there's not much chance he'd ever strike out five times again.

Outlook

At the season's halfway mark, the Jays are in fourth place, seven games behind the front-running Red Sox and five games ahead of the last-place Orioles.

Although a recently shuffled batting order is producing more runs, the patchwork pitching staff is beginning to come apart at the seams. It's possible that the team will end the season in last place.

It's not probable that the Jays will make up significant ground on the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. The Jays need 90+ wins to make the AL playoffs. This bunch will have to pull up their socks to win 80.