Pirates Trade Morgan For Milledge: Playing For "Top Or Bottom" Again

Once again, the Pirates have traded a very good player for the chance of "hitting a home run" on the other side of the trade. Unfortunately, the more likely result is striking out. In gambling terms, this is called "playing for top or bottom."

The brief appearance of Nyjer Morgan in the fall of 2007 was one of the few bright spots of an otherwise dismal season. With him next to Jason Bay in the outfield, it seemed like the Pirates had the makings of a team, if not a contender.

Morgan's emergence, however, was postponed by the equally unlikely rise of Nate McLouth in the spring training of 2008. McLouth was hungrier and better conditioned, and Morgan was relegated to a bench role.Too bad for Morgan, but that was all to the good for the Pirates.

The next event that might have made Morgan an everyday player was the trade of Xavier Nady for a starting pitcher and two prospects (assuming that the price of Damasco Marte was the second pitcher). This trade, the only one that made sense so far, might have cleared an outfield spot for Morgan.

It was, however, the trade of Jason Bay for Brandon Moss, a right fielder, and Andy LaRoche, a replacement for Jose Bautista that eventually put Morgan back on the field. He was a "four tool" player who lacked one of the five tools (power) but was otherwise as good a player as the Pirates could reasonably hope for.

Here' what we gave up: A strong hitter with a better batting average than Nate McLouth, and a similarly high .350-ish OBP. In short, Morgan was basically Nate McLouth without the power, but with extra hitting and running "kicks."

Here's what we're hoping to get: In his best minor league seasons, Milledge garnered astronomical on base percentages (OBP) in excess of .400, and batting averages well into the .300s. In short, there is a possibility that he could be the next Jason Bay.

But a left fielder of Bay's caliber shows up only once every thirty years on average.And Milledge is basically an advanced prospect, not an established Major Leaguer, whose Major League record is uninspiring: He's hit all of .167 in the 24 at bats in seven games in 2009.

Here's the rub: We gave up a Nyjger Morgan FOR SURE for a CHANCE at the next "Jason Bay." Suppose that chance was as high as 50-50. Then it would cost TWO Nyjer Morgans, a high price, to get one "Bay" (since Morgan is himself an established, borderline elite, player).

Based on his record, Milledge may be more like Brandon Moss, who's barely succeeding. And the fact of the matter is that relying on a minor league record for a 50-50 shot at a champion is optimistic.

John van Benschoten was "lights out" as a minor league pitcher, and a washout as a major leaguer. He's not the exception by any means; there are quite a few other "4-A" types floating around; too good for AAA (minors), not good enough for the majors.

In trading Nate McLouth, the Pirates got "three in the bush" for the "bird in hand." With regard to the trade of Morgan for Milledge, the German version of the proverb is more applicable: "a sparrow in hand for a pigeon on the roof."

Suppose that the "best" occurs, and Milledge becomes the next Jason Bay. Then we would have traded Nyjer Morgan for him.

But remember that we (effectively) traded Bay AND Bautista for LaRoche and Moss (plus one busted and one A pitching prospect, and a backup catcher from Toronto). Netting Milledge against Bay, we traded Bautista and Morgan for the other two fielders; not a good deal.

And remember that this is a BEST CASE scenario, not the most likely case. Management may be about to learn a lesson, that trading for the "next Jason Bay" is a great deal harder than keeping the one you've already got!