Could Ian Snell Still Develop? 17 Ks Say Yes

Ian Snell was a pitcher that many were high on heading into the 2008 season, and why shouldn’t they have been?  Despite being 9-12 (which many overlooked considering he was pitching for the Pirates after all), he posted a respectable 3.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 2007.  His peripherals were solid, with a strikeouts per nine inning raito  of 7.66 and a walks per nine inning of 2.94.  He was young and everything seemed to be headed in the right direction…

And then 2008 hit.  He saw a decrease in production across the board.  His ERA inflated to 5.42.  His WHIP to a robust 1.76.  His strikeouts fell to 7.39 and his walks rose to 4.87.

An inflated Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .358 lent a little bit of hope for the true believers (one of my “Wild Predictions” prior to the season was him posting a sub-4.00 ERA).  He’s a young pitcher and inconsistency is to be expected.  It’s never a straight line to greatness, there are going to be bumps along the road.  There were reasons to be optimistic.  Reasons to believe that he was going to have a solid bounce back campaign in 2009.  

Of course, that has been the furthest thing from the case.  He has been so bad in 2009 that he now finds himself in Triple-A, and luck is not the true factor in his demise:

2 Wins
80.2 Innings
5.36 ERA
1.62 WHIP
52 Strikeouts (5.80 K/9)
44 Walks (4.91 BB/9)
.313 BABIP

In fact, luck has absolutely nothing to do with it.  He was just flat out bad, there’s no other way to say it.  The strikeouts are significantly down.  The walks continue at an inflated rate.  That pairing alone tells you enough.

Part of the problem may have been becoming too dependent on his fastball.  In his breakout season he threw it 52.5 percent of the time, but in the two subsequent years he’s been at 62.2 percent and 59.7 percent.  Could that be a major part of the problem?

This season he also was working his curveball back into his repertoire, a pitch that Fan Graphs does not have him throwing at all in 2007 & 2008.  Maybe slowly working it back in makes sense, giving hitters another wrinkle when they step to the plate.  How does throwing it 14.2 percent of the time sound, however?

While part of his problem may be mental or mechanical or physical or whatever other excuse we can use to put it on Snell himself, part of if also could be philosophical.  We’ve seen pitchers go down to the minor leagues and rediscover themselves multiple times.  Just look at Ricky Nolasco this season as a perfect example.

I’m hoping that Snell can go down there and realize what he did that made him a potentially special pitcher compared to what he is doing now. There is obviously a major difference.

In his first start down at Triple-A on June 28, something certainly seemed to click for him.  He pitched 7 innings allowing 1 unearned run on 2 hits and 1 walk.  That’s impressive in and of itself, but the most spectacular number was his strikeouts.  Of the 21 outs he recorded, 17 were strikeouts.  No, that was not a typo.  He had 17 strikeouts.  After walking the leadoff hitter, he struck out the next 13 batters he faced.

He was quoted in an article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (click here to view), saying, “It was just fun to see this relaxed, fun atmosphere. Nothing against the guys up there, you know. They work hard. I just have a lot of thoughts going through my head, and I wanted to get my thoughts together. I felt awesome, and they made me feel awesome.”

That says a lot to me regarding the pressure he feels in the majors versus the talent he actually has.  Could he return to the majors and start producing like we all expected?  Perhaps, but given GM Neal Huntington’s quote in the same article, I have my concerns in how much support he will actually receive from the organization.

“We had the right contract, the right time, but you could argue very easily that we missed on the player," Huntington said. "When I came here, I was determined to learn from mistakes I’d seen elsewhere, where teams don’t take advantage of knowledge of their own players. At the time, we felt it would be a minimal risk. It’s certainly not a $50 million mistake. It’s not a $20 million mistake. Standing here today, it still feels like a mistake.”

He also admitted that he has tried to trade Snell.  Given his performance away from the Pirates, maybe that would be the best for all parties involved, don’t you think?

What are your feelings on Snell?  Would he be better off pitching for another franchise?  Is he a pitcher you’ve given up on?

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