Ranking Every National Team in the World Ahead of the World Cup

With less than two weeks to go until the first ball is kicked at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, interest in international football is reaching its quadrennial peak.

For many casual fans of the beautiful game, the events of the past four years since Spain's victory in Soccer City may have gone virtually unnoticed.

As a result, they may not know what to expect of their favorite national teams heading into the world's most famous sporting event.

There is no better time, then, to update the Wagner World Rankings and order national teams based on their performances over the past four years.

So sit back and enjoy these rankings of every national team in the world.

Methodology

Antonio Calanni/Associated Press

For those of you who are new to these rankings and this system, let's break down the mathematical process that goes into it.

To begin with, every match from the last four years is assigned a value based on its importance. For example, the World Cup final is given much more weight than a random friendly.

The four-year window seems to be the perfect amount of time—a shorter period gives too small a sample size and a larger one would likely represent a different side.

After every match is given a value and compiled, each team is assigned a score for every match based on four factors:

• The result of the match
• Whether the match was home, away or at a neutral venue
• How strong the opposition was
• How recently the match was played

Finally, factoring in any matches a team missed out on (i.e. matches at World Cups they didn't qualify for) and giving every continental tournament a new weight produces a score out of 1,000 points.

Every team is then ranked based on these points.

One should note that this does not produce a ranking based on form alone.

As a result, many teams may seem higher or lower in the rankings than one might expect because of drastic changes in form over relatively short periods of time.

For example, performing well over a year may push a team up the table quickly, but relatively awful performances over the three years prior could hold the team back.

Hence, it allows a ranking that factors in both form and consistency, a quality that is highly undervalued.

So, without further ado, here are the latest rankings.

210-181

Francisco Seco/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
210		San Marino	0
210		Bhutan	0
210		Turks and Caicos Islands	0
207		Cook Islands	0.031
206		Tonga	0.048
205		American Samoa	0.051
204		Papua New Guinea	0.070
203		Samoa	0.096
202		Montserrat	0.183
201		Anguilla	0.229
200		Fiji	0.325
199		Vanuatu	0.352
198		Brunei	0.361
197		British Virgin Islands	0.378
196		Macau	0.465
195		Djibouti	0.498
194		Cayman Islands	0.650
193		Timor-Leste	0.671
192		South Sudan	0.743
191		Bahamas	0.756
190		Mongolia	0.826
189		Eritrea	1.005
188		US Virgin Islands	1.046
187		Somalia	1.182
186		Sri Lanka	1.619
185		Cambodia	1.918
184		Aruba	1.960
183		Bermuda	2.054
182		Guam	2.734
181		Gibraltar	2.935

Analysis

The most notable team in this group is Gibraltar, who make their first entry into these rankings.

With their entry into qualifying for the 2016 UEFA European Championships starting in September, the nation could no longer be ignored.

What's more, draws with Slovakia and Estonia, two teams that are by no means the weakest in Europe, already have Gibraltar racing up the table.

One other team to take note of is South Sudan, as this relatively new country also has the potential to move up the table quickly.

180-151

Eugenio Savio/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
180		Kyrgyzstan	2.902
179		Comoros	2.996
178		Solomon Islands	3.026
177		Sao Tome e Principe	3.195
176		Barbados	3.643
175		Dominica	3.685
174		Seychelles	4.154
173		Mauritius	4.402
172		Nicaragua	4.412
171		Curacao	4.459
170		Madagascar	4.593
169		Bangladesh	5.384
168		Guinea-Bissau	5.517
167		Yemen	6.525
166		Chad	7.447
165		Laos	7.932
164		Swaziland	8.757
163		Puerto Rica	9.157
162		St Lucia	9.233
161		Mauritania	10.451
160		The Gambia	11.741
159		Belize	12.681
158		Chinese Taipei	12.942
157		Andorra	12.990
156		Tahiti	12.998
155		New Caledonia	15.902
154		Pakistan	19.411
153		Turkmenistan	20.294
152		Faroe Islands	23.595
151		St Kitts and Nevis	24.092

Analysis

Rarely will one find a continental champion this low in the rankings, but Tahiti is a rare team.

Since winning the 2012 OFC Nations Cup over New Caledonia, who themselves had shockingly eliminated juggernauts New Zealand, Tahiti has done very little.

The minnows may have put on a spirited display at the Confederations Cup (while losing every match), but they put up very little resistance in regional World Cup qualifying.

150-121

John Cowpland/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
150		Hong Kong	24.137
149		Myanmar	24.204
148		Maldives	26.363
147		Suriname	26.806
146		Nepal	27.481
145		Grenada	28.133
144		Afghanistan	28.463
143		Central African Republic	29.655
142		New Zealand	34.554
141		Benin	34.734
140		Vietnam	35.314
139		Liechtenstein	35.647
138		Syria	35.821
137		St Vincent and the Grenadines	37.117
136		Dominican Republic	38.639
135		Palestine	38.800
134		Tajikistan	40.512
133		Malaysia	41.985
132		India	42.488
131		Haiti	46.787
130		Cuba	50.006
129		Cyprus	50.876
128		Indonesia	52.220
127		Guyana	52.702
126		Equatorial Guinea	53.257
125		Singapore	56.147
124		Philippines	56.768
123		Antigua and Barbuda	60.632
122		Thailand	61.139
121		Trinidad and Tobago	62.230

Analysis

One team that might surprise at this low level is New Zealand, who have fallen quite a long way since the last update of these rankings.

To understand this ranking, one need only look at the team's past two years of results, where they failed to win the OFC Nations Cup in a weak confederation and were pounded by a struggling Mexican side in the World Cup's intercontinental playoffs.

Meanwhile, other teams in this group sit with great potential to rise up the table, such as Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago, but without the results to back up their potential.

120-91

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
120		North Korea	73.274
119		Saudi Arabia	85.384
118		Bahrain	89.238
117		United Arab Emirates	89.297
116		Lesotho	89.928
115		China	92.189
114		Burundi	92.401
113		Guatemala	97.648
112		El Salvador	99.545
111		Canada	100.324
110		Malta	100.509
109		Northern Ireland	104.555
108		Luxembourg	109.066
107		Liberia	117.371
106		Lebanon	119.544
105		Kuwait	120.439
104		Rwanda	127.829
103		Sierra Leone	131.462
102		Republic of the Congo	133.073
101		Namibia	134.897
100		Niger	155.853
99		Mozambique	156.677
98		Tanzania	157.711
97		Kazakhstan	159.335
96		Guinea	161.152
95		Malawi	166.605
94		Botswana	170.200
93		Oman	171.841
92		Zimbabwe	172.181
91		Gabon	173.054

Analysis

Four years after adding some peculiar intrigue to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, North Korea have dropped quite a bit.

After getting eliminated from World Cup qualifying early, the North Koreans' friendly form has dropped—something they have hung their hat on in recent years.

Meanwhile, there are many African nations sprinkled in this group, all of which have struggled through their numerous qualifying campaigns over the past four years.

Perhaps the most intriguing nations in this group, though, are Canada and El Salvador.

With a good string of results, those two could easily burst into the top 100 and even higher in the next few months.

90-61

Armando Franca/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
90		Kenya	174.156
89		Sudan	187.485
88		Togo	190.027
87		Jamaica	190.265
86		Qatar	197.811
85		Cabo Verde	198.548
84		Libya	207.228
83		Senegal	211.077
82		DR Congo	214.487
81		Uganda	219.724
80		Egypt	223.519
79		Angola	225.656
78		Iraq	231.996
77		Cameroon	236.656
76		Ethiopia	241.886
75		Morocco	260.335
74		Jordan	262.242
73		South Africa	267.787
72		Uzbekistan	280.468
71		Latvia	285.778
70		Macedonia	288.312
69		Tunisia	288.931
68		Mali	291.284
67		Lithuania	293.064
66		Estonia	293.481
65		Moldova	295.223
64		Wales	299.074
63		Azerbaijan	300.162
62		Panama	306.302
61		Zambia	306.427

Analysis

One look at this group of nations raises one obvious question: How are Cameroon, a team going to the World Cup, ranked so low?

Looking at Cameroon's past four years provides the answer to that question. 

The Africans have been wildly inconsistent and unstable, losing staples like Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Samuel Eto'o,who have since returned.

After failing to qualify for either of the past two Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, Cameroon progressed out of their qualifying group for Brazil in large part thanks to a forfeit by Togo.

Looking at the rest of the teams in this group, Mali have the chance to rise quickly, as their third-place finishes in each of the past two Africa Cup of Nations have been overshadowed by a disappointing World Cup qualifying campaign and a bad run of friendlies.

A few good friendlies should push them back into the top 40.

60-31

SCOTT HEPPELL/Associated Press

Ranking		Nation	Points out of 1000
60		Georgia	306.427
59		Algeria	309.194
58		Bolivia	312.339
57		Albania	312.791
56		Iceland	315.938
55		Bulgaria	316.293
54		Belarus	326.659
53		Montenegro	333.111
52		Israel	334.604
51		Norway	338.991
50		Armenia	343.187
49		Finland	343.726
48		Scotland	344.895
47		Burkina Faso	347.112
46		Slovenia	354.774
45		Slovakia	359.428
44		Iran	361.070
43		Honduras	364.940
42		Austria	368.328
41		Hungary	371.515
40		Peru	374.303
39		Serbia	374.406
38		Poland	378.641
37		Venezuela	380.118
36		Costa Rica	391.615
35		Turkey	391.979
34		Rep Ireland	396.667
33		Paraguay	397.937
32		Romania	402.376
31		South Korea	405.075

Analysis

This group of 30 teams offers up five more nations bound for Brazil, with Algeria pulling up the rear.

Just like Cameroon, Algeria's inconsistencies have them as underdogs heading into the World Cup.

Meanwhile, the 50s are filled with young, up-and-coming European nations who could pose a threat at Euro 2016, despite failing to qualify for the World Cup.

The big anomaly of the group is Paraguay, who are still living off of their good performances in South Africa and the Copa America.

I expected them to drop like a stone after finishing dead last in CONMEBOL's qualification group for Brazil, but it seems like they will hang on to a decent ranking until after the World Cup.

Once that passes, though, don't be surprised if the Paraguayans are suddenly dead last among the South American nations.

30-21

Jend Dresling/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Score out of 1000
30		Denmark	413.925
29		Czech Republic	414.451
28		Ukraine	432.212
27		Nigeria	445.662
26		Ivory Coast	447.704
25		Sweden	447.874
24		Australia	449.635
23		Japan	450.787
22		Ghana	454.693
21		Ecuador	464.562

Analysis

Even though these spots would logically be saved for the teams that qualified for the World Cup, four European nations that just missed out burst through.

The highest ranked such team, Sweden, will probably be the most missed team in Brazil; Zlatan Ibrahimovic's side fell short in a playoff against Portugal due solely to Cristiano Ronaldo's brilliance.

What may be the most debated ranking of these 10 is how low Ecuador came, as they are a popular sleeper pick to make a quarterfinal run in Brazil this month.

However, Ecuador haven't won a competitive match outside of Ecuador since a World Cup qualifier in Bolivia...in 2009.

20-11

Darko Bandic/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
20		Mexico	465.560
19		Switzerland	471.879
18		Bosnia-Herzegovina	472.754
17		USA	478.537
16		Croatia	484.150
15		Chile	485.097
14		Belgium	490.267
13		Greece	491.134
12		France	494.100
11		Colombia	508.856

Analysis

Finally, a group of all teams headed for Brazil.

While Mexico have been much-maligned since their atrocious qualifying campaign, many may have missed that they have gone seven matches unbeaten. Of course, questions still linger over which Mexican team will show up and whether they will be good enough to get through their difficult group.

Switzerland may have a good chance of getting through their group in Brazil, but their terrible Euro 2012 qualifying campaign combined with the relative ease of their World Cup qualifying group are holding them back from going even further up this table.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgium and Colombia have all moved swiftly up the rankings thanks to their great runs over the past year or two.

Greece's ability to consistently qualify for major tournaments and sometimes sneak out of groups have them ranked much higher than one might think.

The USA, a side who are being written off by so many heading into Brazil, are less than a year removed from a fantastic run that saw them win 12 consecutive matches.

Finally, Chile's ranking is a product of their streaky nature. While the South Americans seem to be the popular pick to come through their group after a decent run of form, this is the same squad that went on a five-match losing streak less than two years ago.

10. Russia

Armando Franca/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Point out of 1000
10		Russia	518.491

Analysis

They may be one of the clear favorites to come through their group in Brazil, but that has not been good news for Russia in the recent past.

Still, the Russians have been really impressive over the past few years, beating Portugal to the automatic qualifying spot and losing just three matches since February 2011.

Watch out for Russia this month.

9. England

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Score out of 1000
9		England	533.875

Analysis

England are not a popular pick for a deep run in this year's World Cup, but the Three Lions have been so consistent over the past few years.

Plus, with some young talent injecting speed into the side, England fans have a reason to dream heading into the tough test thrown up by their group.

8. Portugal

Francisco Seco/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
8		Portugal	534.234

Analysis

Heading into each of the past few major tournaments, Portugal have been taken lightly because of their poor runs in qualifying.

Each time, though, Portugal has risen above and gotten through their group.

One should write off the Portuguese at their own risk. After all, with the likes of Joao Moutinho, Nani and Fabio Coentrao, this side is more than just the genius of Cristiano Ronaldo.

7. Uruguay

Alberto Tao/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
7		Uruguay	536.455

Analysis

After finishing fourth in the 2010 World Cup and winning the 2011 Copa America, Uruguay seem like a natural pick for a deep run in Brazil.

However, the South Americans' hopes hinge on the health of their main striker, Luis Suarez, with his knee surgery casting a doubt over their whole campaign.

If Suarez plays, will he be 100 percent? If not, can Edinson Cavani and Diego Forlan step up in his stead?

Lots of questions are left with this Uruguay squad, but they still have the potential to make a great run this month.

6. Italy

Fabrizio Giovannozzi/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
6		Italy	539.736

Analysis

Four years on from being eliminated in the group stage of a World Cup, Italy have regrouped well.

The Azzurri played very well at Euro 2012, going out to Spain in the final, and they almost knocked off Spain in the Confederations Cup a year later.

Now, Italy have their eyes set on an unlikely run at their fifth World Cup trophy.

One thing's for certain, with Mario Balotelli, Andrea Pirlo and Gianluigi Buffon at their disposal, Italy will like their chances in a penalty shootout with anyone.

5. Netherlands

Peter Dejong/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
5		Netherlands	555.439

Analysis

With how much the Dutch have fallen out of the public favor over the past few years, it may be surprising to see them this high in the rankings. After all, they went out in Euro 2012 without picking up so much as a point.

However, Netherlands are still reigning World Cup runner-up and have dominated major tournament qualifying campaigns over the past four years.

In fact, since the debacle of 2012, the Dutch have just lost once—in a friendly to France.

Rafael van der Vaart is a loss, but don't be surprised if Netherlands are back in the knockout stages this World Cup around.

4. Argentina

Natacha Pisarenko/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
4		Argentina	560.000

Analysis

After more than a few underwhelming major tournament performances in a row, everyone wants to see Lionel Messi and Argentina rise up and challenge in Brazil this month.

With the group these South Americans have been handed, there's a good chance we will be seeing them in the knockout stages. However, it's there where the questions lie.

Can the Argentinians break through the quarterfinals once more? Will Messi finally reach the heights he has with Barcelona while playing for his nation?

3. Brazil

Hassan Ammar/Associated Press

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
3		Brazil	594.747

Analysis

Don't let this ranking deceive you: Brazil are the favorites to win the World Cup in their own backyard.

This young side came into their own at the Confederations Cup last summer, and they should be a force to reckoned with when they're being cheered on by a raucous crowd.

What this ranking reflects, though, is how inconsistent the Brazilians have been over the past four years.

After all, they were taken out in the quarters of the 2010 World Cup by Netherlands and of the 2011 Copa America by Paraguay while losing friendlies to the likes of England, Mexico and Switzerland.

It wouldn't be shocking if the Brazilians win the whole thing in July, but one should expect this squad to make it dramatic either way.

2. Germany

Alex Livesey/Getty Images

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
2		Germany	609.670

Analysis

After a disappointing end to Bayern Munich's Champions League campaign and a disastrous World Cup camp, expectations have been tempered in Germany for their national team heading into the 2014 World Cup.

Maybe that's just what the Germans need.

After two consecutive major tournaments in a row in which they faltered in the semifinals, Germany have the talent to go all the way this time.

The only trouble is, they had the talent to get over that final hurdle in the past, too.

Can a bit of bad luck help relieve the stress when the pressure inevitably mounts on this German side this time around?

If so, expect them to be holding the trophy in July.

1. Spain

Gonzalo Arroyo Moreno/Getty Images

Rank		Nation	Points out of 1000
1		Spain	646.462

Analysis

Spain are the reigning World Cup and two-time Euro champions.

While that's already historic enough, the question over this side is whether they can pull off one more historic run to cement their legacy at the top of international football or if Father Time has finally caught up with them.

Either way, Spain has earned the right to be considered number one until someone finally knocks them off their perch.

Conclusion

Sidali Djarboub/Associated Press

So there it is, every international football nation ranked.

One more disclaimer: One should keep in mind that the order of this ranking is not necessarily a prediction for how the teams will end up finishing, but merely a reflection of how well each team is currently playing and how good their results have been over the past four years.

I hope you enjoyed them, but either way please give me feedback in the comments below. I do take suggestions and want to know if you think a team is not in the right spot. Most of the time, that's how these rankings get better.

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