The Road to A Winning Record Is Paved In New Blood

Talent wise, the Orioles are much better than their sub-500 record indicates.  Purging deadweight (Adam Eaton, Jamie Walker, and Ryan Freel), benching the unproductive (Pie), rehabbing the injured (Chris Ray, Dennis Sarfate, and Matt Albers) and demoting the not ready for prime time players (Radhames Liz and Bob McCrory) has resulted in addition by subtraction. 

For example, pitchers no longer on the active roster account for 28 of the 89 home runs hit off of Orioles pitching—note this statistic excludes the nine homers hit off of, the hopefully soon to be gone, Mark Hendrickson.

In contrast, the minor league call-ups seem like real “keepers.”  Reimold is contending for Rookie of the Year Honors, leading all first-year players in home runs, batting average, and RBI.  Moreover, Matt Weiters and Brad Bergesen may also ultimately contend for the award. 

Should the veterans start holding up their end of the bargain, the Orioles could experience a winning season for the first time since 1997.

As expected, the relative strength of the Orioles has been its offense.  As such, the Orioles' season hinges on the performance its franchise players—Adam Jones, Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis.  Unfortunately, Jones and Markakis are mired in horrendous slumps; Roberts has shown signs of pulling out of his month-long dive.  Neither, Aubrey Huff, the clean up hitter, nor Melvin Mora, who hits in the five hole, has met expectations. 

Notwithstanding, their slumps, Jones, Markakis, and Huff, rank high among the America League RBI leaders.   By seasons end, Jones, Roberts, Markakis (and perhaps Huff) will all hit above .300.  When you toss in a 25-30 home run year from Luke Scott, and significant contributions by Reimold, Weiters, and Ty Wigginton, the Orioles seem poised to put up impressive offensive numbers.

The quest for at least .500 is best served by embracing a meritocracy.  Therefore, Pie stays on the bench, Mora goes to the bench, and Oscar Salazar gets to demonstrate whether he is the real deal. 

Pie needs to log time at the minor league level as a corner outfielder because has no future (as an Oriole) in center field where Jones will roam for the next 10+ years. 

Mora has just two home runs (ranks near the bottom of starting American League third basemen) and a paltry 18 RBI (ranks dead last).  In contrast, Oscar Salazar has batted over .400 in his first 17 ABs, including several clutch base hits which keyed late-inning come from behind victories. 

While he’s had limited ABs since his call up, Salazar hit over .370 at Triple-A.  He played well last year in a limited role, he’s put up better numbers in tougher circumstances this go round, he’s earned a shot to get an extended look at either first  or third base—Huff leads the team in RBI, Mora is last for players with at least 150 ABs, you do the math.

Pitching remains the Orioles Achilles' heel, especially the starters.  The initial starting rotation (Guthrie, Uehara, Eaton, Simon, and Hendrickson) had only one starter who entered the season with a winning major league record, Adam Eaton—OMG.

Predictably, the starting pitching has been horrid—last place in batting average (.277), home runs (89), and quality starts (24).  When your staff ace (Guthrie) leads the league in home runs allowed and sports a five-plus ERA, you know you’re in for a tough time.  

Ending the string of losing seasons means Guthrie regains last year’s form, Uehara (should he remain a starter) consistently pitches past the sixth inning, and Hill throws something other than his curve ball for strikes (cutting down the walks would also be nice).

Since the purge (Eaton’s release, Simon’s season ending injury, and Hendrickson’s banishment to the bullpen), things have materially improved and  Bergesen (the only starter with an era under 4) has emerged, albeit by default, as the [unofficial] staff ace. 

He has gotten better and more confident with time and he may yet beat out Reimold for Rookie of the Year honors—oh stop laughing and let a guy dream.  The most encouraging thing about Bergesen is that he’s nowhere near the projected talent of the likes of Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, or Troy Patton. 

I look for Tillman and Patton to break into the rotation sometime after the All-Star game.  In addition, I doubt we’ve seen the last this year of David Hernandez, a dark horse candidate to leap frog over Tillman and Arrieta as the organization top right hand pitching prospect—you heard it here first.

The bullpen, lead by All-Star closer George Sherrill and set-up man Jim Johnson, is very strong.  The relief corps will only get stronger when the Orioles see the light and convert Uehara to long-relief, rid themselves of Hendrickson, and find a left hand specialist (lefties hit .300 against Hendrickson and .458 against Walker); enter Wilfrido Perez. 

Baez, despite his recent slide, (serving up a grand slam and a three-run homer in back-to-back games) has been a very pleasant surprise and should garner a prospect or two from a contending team looking to shore up its bullpen.

Entering the season, defense and team speed were thought to be relative strengths.  While the defense has been sub-par, the base running has been notably disappointing.  The Orioles have only stolen 37 bases in 59 attempts, a 63 percent success rate; last year it was 69 percent.  Jones and Pie, the two fastest Orioles, have stolen a combined 6 of 12, an astonishingly low 50 percent success rate. 

Though he’s  a great guy, Trembley’s leadership skill leaves a lot to be desired.  While mangers don’t play the game, their leadership influences how players perform.  The Orioles have been plagued by mental errors—throwing to the wrong base, missing the hit-and-run sign, being picked off base (including third), and getting gunned down by wide-margins in critical game situations. 

Most troubling was a stretch where some Orioles, mostly veterans (see Mora and Roberts) seemed lackadaisical, giving less than full effort.  The players are responsible, but as the manager, Trembley is accountable.  He must find a way to stop the stupid stuff, or else!