Quest For 300: Is It Really Out Of The Question?

Much has been made of achieving the career pitching milestone of 300 wins. 

Every time a pitcher has accomplished the feat since Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux, it is hailed as "probably the last time" we will see that particular number reached. 

Why?

If baseball history has taught us anything through the many long summers, it is that records are meant to be broken. 

Someone, as Ken Burns notes in his detailed documentary on the game, said with great conviction that no one would ever his as many home runs (138) in their career as Roger Connor did in the late 1800s. 

Babe Ruth hit 138 in two and a half seasons. 

I'm sure someone in some conversation said that no one would win 300 after Cy Young or Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson did it.

So many great hurlers have done it since those hallowed names took the hill-which wasn't always much of a hill back then.

Things change.  Baseball is a game of evolution. 

Say what you want about steroids, but baseball is often a pantomime of society.  Steroids were a natural outgrowth of the time.  Baseball didn't even really start the trend.  They just fell into step.

Baseball has so much history that we have to divide it into eras.  Often, those eras have more to do with the ball itself and the offense it generated than on any exact chronological science.

We've had dead ball eras, live ball eras, and now a steroids era.

The point to this tangent is that everything evens out in the end.  Right now, baseball is on an offensive tilt. 

But if you watch, especially so far in 2009, pitchers are catching up again.

So maybe we won't see another great from the last generation like Pedro Martinez or John Smoltz win 300 games.  We'll miss out on Mike Mussina and Jamie Moyer too.

In case those burly biceps have been blinding you, there are some pretty talented young pitchers carving out careers in pitching rotations near you.

I read a lot about the effects of pitch counts on win totals.  The game is played too differently, they say, for someone to have a shot at 300 wins in a standard career.

I'd say if Nolan Ryan had a "standard" 10-15 year career, he may not have won 300 games either.  Neither would Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux.

It takes an exceptional pitcher, as it always has, to win 300 games.

What I think offsets pitch counts nowadays is the youth of the pitchers.  Guys like Tim Lincecum are reaching the big leagues earlier and earlier.  This means that they have more years between debut and age 40.

Therefore, I believe they have a better chance to win 300.

There are also quite a few pitchers who can easily be classified as exceptional.

If you look across the majors right now, you have two fairly likely 300 game winners in the National League: Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.

Both pitchers should average 15-20 wins a season for the next 10 years at least.  If they can pitch into their 40s, they both have 300 wins within reach.

Beyond those two, the field gets murky.  CC Sabathia could do it.  He's young enough and sturdy enough to accomplish the feat.  The question is whether he can continue to be the pitcher he has been and if he can eliminate his current preponderance toward early-season slumps.

But who else is out there?

Josh Beckett?  It's not out of the question.  It's certainly not nearly as likely.

Zack Greinke? I want to see more than just a good start to 2009.  But this is encouraging stuff.

Roy Halladay? There's a name I'd be willing to bet on.

Justin Verlander? Could be.  He's another slow starter though.

Felix Hernandez? He's still incredibly young.  There's hope there.

Roy Oswalt? Looks like he might be slowing.  He also seems primed to retire early.

Carlos Zambrano? Another early retiree in waiting.  But if he stays, he's got a shot.

Jake Peavy? That's another name that has some possibility.

Now, there are no guarantees in any sport.  Baseball in particular has a history of sending stars crashing down with no notice.  But the point is not that someone will win 300 games again.

The point is that there is absolutely no reason to believe that someone won't be in the running 10 or 20 years from now.

I'm not even looking at guys like Stephen Strasburg yet.  Imagine if he comes out and pitches like he's supposed to pitch.

Forget the pitch counts. 

Forget the analysts and their beliefs.

What do YOU think?  Can one of these guys win 300 games?  Who?

My bet, if it matters, is on Lincecum.  He's a once in a generation talent with a movement that isn't hard on his arm or his body. 

I wouldn't count out Santana either by the way.  He's a horse.