Cubs Community Roundtable: First Quarter Cubs Report

I don't know about you, but for me personally, this has been one of the more disappointing Cubs seasons I can ever recall. And that's saying a lot, because as a long-time die hard, I've certainly been there, done that.

Don't get me wrong, I understand that there is still time to right the ship, and fortunately no one is running away with the division.

Still, it's hard to believe this is the same team that won 97 games during the regular season last year.

GM Jim Hendry decided to change the mix during the offseason, and he made a lot of changes to the 2008 team. The results have not been encouraging, with the team mired in a horrific offensive struggle, especially with RISP, and a shaky bullpen.

As we did for April, I've collected the thoughts of some of the top writers from the Cubs community, and solicited their thoughts for the month of May.

I did not get this published in a timely manner, so please keep in mind that these comments are from around the first of June.

Hindsight being 20/20, kudos to the writers who stuck by Derrek Lee, who has certainly stepped up to the table since these comments were written. I cannot say that I had as much confidence in him.

So, without further ado, I present to you the May Cubs Roundtable report.

1. Who is the May Cubs MVP, and why?

TAB Bamford: The Cubs MVP for the entire season-to-date is the Chicago Blackhawks. They kept the city's mind off the turmoil and mediocrity on the North Side until just a week ago. Jim Hendry should send Rocky Wirtz a nice fruit basket or something for keeping the nation's media from noticing that the Cubs suck.

Jacob Nitzberg: Do I have to pick anyone?  Without looking at stats I couldn’t think of anyone off the top of my head. I’m going with Reed Johnson.  In just 16 games he led all regulars in hitting with a .366 average, had three home runs, and was second on the team with 14 RBI (behind Theriot’s 15, if you believe that).  Plus, his defense was always great.

A close second would be Randy Wells.  If the team could have got him some wins he probably would have been first.  In May he was 0-2, but did it with a 1.80 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.  Only five Earned runs in four starts is extremely impressive for a rookie.

Ryan Winn: Milton Bradley—Coming off the role as April's scapegoat, Bradley turned it around in May, hitting .268 with three home runs and 12 RBI in the month. Although those aren't the numbers one would want from him at season's end, his turnaround has solidified the middle of the order with A-Ram, something they desperately need until the All-Star break.

Kane Simmons: Cubs MVP for May is a tough question as May was a bad month. The MVP can't go to an offensive player as they (and the bullpen) were the biggest contributors to the Cubs futility. So the MVP belongs to a starter, and the two consistent starters have Lilly and Wells.

I will give my MVP vote to Wells, since he has been great from the get-go. Filling in for Zambrano when he was hurt, and now Harden, and when he comes back he will undoubtedly have earned his own spot in the rotation, replacing Marshall. Wells for MVP even though his best start was June 2nd.  

Brian Livingston: The MVP for the Cubs in May wasn’t just one guy it was their starting rotation. That eight game skid the starters pitched some of their best baseball. They limited the damage to one or two runs on a given night, unfortunately the offense decided to take off during that time. Definitely the pitching staff they did their job, no doubt.

2. Who was the most disappointing Cub in May?

TAB Bamford: Milton Bradley continues to disappoint. So did Neal Cotts, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot, Geovany Soto, and Carlos Zambrano. Anyone else that I missed?

Jacob Nitzberg: Even though it was really for only half the month, I’m voting for Soriano.  Yes he might be injured, but he is still starting the majority of games off with an out.  Since homering in the ninth inning on May 17, he had just seven hits for the remainder of the month, just two of them for extra bases and none that drove in any runs.  We need his bat and it didn’t show up.

Ryan Winn: Alfonso Soriano—His production dropped off rapidly from April, having his average drop from .284 last month to .216 this month, striking out 10 more times and walking four fewer times. His power numbers are similar, but the Cubs need runs, and by not getting on base and hitting his HR with no one on, he is depriving the team of that.

Kane Simmons: This could go to any offensive player, excluding Kosuke, but to be disappointing in May, one would have to have an exceptional April. So, by that definition, my MDC (Most Disappointing Cub) would have to be Soriano, whose average has dropped every day since the beginning of May. Soriano can't hit a breaking ball to save his life, doing his best Dennis Haysbert/Pedro Cerrano impression. A leadoff man is the catalyst for the offense, and this proves it. Soriano bad = offense bad.

Brian Livingston: The offense was the most disappointing. I don’t know if I could single out one guy specifically because they all were bad. They started off 11-4 and then the offense fell asleep once they hit the road. They scored only a grand total of five runs on that trip, which isn’t going to win you many games unless your starters and bullpen are pitching shutouts night in and night out.  

Maybe I could single out Soriano because he was white hot in April and the Cubs were winning. He gets cold, so do the Cubs. Then again losing Aramis Ramirez to the disabled list is going to hurt the Cubs offense in a big way too.

3. What is the top area of need for the Cubs right now (starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting, defense)?

TAB Bamford: The Cubs need to acquire a left handed pitcher. Whether it's a starter to permanently push Marshall to the bullpen or a reliever that let's Lou keep Marshall in the rotation, the biggest need is a lefty handed pitcher. Oh, and an infielder that's taller than 5'11".

Jacob Nitzberg: Is all of the above an option?  I will say hitting.   I think the majority of it is attributable to the injury to Ramirez and Soriano’s recent struggles, but who knows when those will end.  The pitching hasn’t been great, but the hitting needs the most work. When Ryan Theriot leads the team in HR and RBI in May, you have an offensive problem.

Ryan Winn: Relief pitching—I would be shocked if anyone chose anything else. The names Neil Cotts, David Patton, Aaron Heilman, and Kevin Gregg brought chills to Cubs fans throughout the month. Although Gregg has produced in his last 10+ outings, the middle relievers are still horrific. Sean Marshall's eventual return to the bullpen should help, and a larger number of runs produced would probably help hide how bad the bullpen is this season.

Kane Simmons: Right now it is the offense, but it is pretty much set in stone, barring a drastic move or injury. So, the bullpen is next on the list, and has been unstable all year. From who will attempt to close the game, to a stable left hander, to just a reliable guy.  

Brian Livingston: The top two areas of concern for me are the offense and the bullpen. Forget all this talk about getting Jake Peavy or any other ace for that matter because that isn’t the biggest issue the Cubs need to address right now. Their starting pitching has been stellar thus far. Don’t fix what isn’t broken.

They really don’t have a true backup for third base and it exposed a big weakness of this team. Aaron Miles, Mike Fontenot and Bobby Scales are not the answer at third base. I don’t know who they could get at this point because no one is really selling at this point and there is no need to sell the farm on a rent-a-player, especially when Ramirez is coming back after the All-Star break.

The bullpen is a bit of concern as well. Aaron Heilman needs to get it together and soon otherwise he is going to become the next person in Lou’s doghouse. I do like the emergence of Angel Guzman; he seems to compliment Carlos Marmol nicely. It seems to me that Guzman has finally figured it out.

4. What do you think of the Carlos Zambrano outburst—childish behavior or simply a sign of a fiery competitor? Is he still the Cubs Ace?

TAB Bamford: He's the Cubs ace because he's paid the most and is at the front of the rotation. The best, most consistent pitcher on the Cubs staff is Ted Lilly, who somehow gets a decision every time he takes the bump. I think Carlos Zambrano is a baby who needs to be on his back on a couch telling someone with a bunch of degrees why he can't get his crap together and win more than 16 games.

Jacob Nitzberg: It’s just Carlos being Carlos.  He is a fiery competitor, but needs to cool it a bit before he hurts someone, himself included.  Based on the struggles by and injuries to other pitchers, I think he is currently the ace by default.

Ryan Winn: Zambrano's outburst was a mix of his competitiveness and his frustration with the team. With the number of losses his team took in May, Zambrano's tantrum was merely a player showcasing what every fan wanted to do. It's no surprise he reacted in such a way given his past behavior, and he would have probably been fine if the ump did not eject him for 'bumping'. He is still the Cubs ace, and he should prove it once he returns.

Kane Simmons: His eruption was fine by me for a couple of reasons. First, it was entertaining throwing the umpire out of the game, though the Gatorade machine didn't deserve what it got.

Second, it was late in his start—I think he was well over 100 pitches—it wasn't like John Lackey, who was tossed after just two pitches.

Third, it is better to vent on a Gatorade machine than breaking your hand against a wall like some pitchers do.

Fourth, he is an emotional guy, and this could possibly motivate him or even the rest if the team when he comes back. He is still the Cubs ace in my book, for one game I want him on the mound.  

Brian Livingston: Carlos Zambrano may drive you crazy with his “antics” but there isn’t a pitcher out there I wouldn’t want throwing for the Cubs the way Zambrano is capable of throwing when he is on. Because when he is on he is capable of throwing a no-hitter.

I don’t want him on another other team but the Cubs because I guarantee you if he leaves or is traded he will come back to hurt you in a big way. I’ve seen it happen before. Greg Maddux is the prime example of that and Cubs know that all too well.

I will put up Z until he stops doing his job. He’s passionate, but he needs to learn to control that because it is going to hurt the team or someone at some point. It has been often debated if Z is the ace or not. I say this it’s not about the individual but the overall team. As long as he’s out there and pitching the way he is capable of pitching I don’t care what he’s called. Just get wins and everyone will be happy.

5. Should Sean Marshall be a starter or in the bullpen?

TAB Bamford: It doesn't matter where he "should" be...the Cubs need a better option that throws left handed either in the pen or the rotation, and they don't have that. I like Marshall as a starter, but the Cubs have a huge need for a lefty in the pen. See my answer to No. 3.

Jacob Nitzberg: Marshall needs to be in the pen simply because we have no lefties.  With him in the rotation, our left-handed relievers have a total of 1.0 career innings pitched.  He is most valuable in the role he was in last season, where he could do whatever was asked of him. 

Ryan Winn: Marshall proved in his last start of the month exactly where he belongs. Perhaps he can develop control with his slow fastball and breaking curve like Ted Lilly is now, but he best belongs as a left-handed matchup pitcher in the bullpen for 2009.

Kane Simmons: When the Cubs starting pitching is healthy, Wells will have earned a spot, leaving Marshall the odd man out of the rotation, and thus in the bullpen as a long relief man or against lefties.

Brian Livingston: I would say keep Marshall in the rotation simply for the fact that left handed pitching is priceless, but they lack good left handed pitching. Neal Cotts isn’t the answer. Jim Hendry will need to look for a quality left handed reliever before the trading deadline. If Marshall didn’t get shellacked on Sunday I don’t think they would’ve been so quick to move him back to the bullpen.

6. Will Geo Soto turn it around or is he a one-year wonder? To what do you attribute his rough start?

TAB Bamford: I think Soto will turn it around, but I think the reality of the Cubs situation is that Soto peaked last year. He busted his butt his entire life to get to the bigs, went huge last year, got himself onto a deep WBC team that he probably didn't deserve to be on because of the other catchers they had, and now he's trying to remember how hard he worked to get to the ROY. I think he just took the winter off and he's regretting it now. After the break he'll be back to hitting .285 with mid-level power.

Jacob Nitzberg: I believe Soto will turn it around.  He is still doing a great job calling the game and appears to be trying to hit the ball the opposite way more often.  Besides the so-called sophomore slump, I have no idea what to attribute the slow start to.

Ryan Winn: I was afraid entering this year about Soto faltering, and it looks like my fear is being proven. He really fell off at the end of last year, and he has continued into this season. He has struck out and grounded out more often than the Cubs need, and I would label him a one-year wonder. Meanwhile, Koyie Hill has performed just as well, if not better. I would attribute his struggles t pitchers knowing how to get him out this year, and I do not expect Soto to turn it around this year.

Kane Simmons: It is difficult to tell whether he will ever turn it around, but I would like to think so. It doesn't look too promising. I don't know why some blame the WBC, maybe it's that when he was a rookie there wasn't much in the scouting report on him and now the book is bigger on him? Or, maybe it is just a bad year. What isn't too promising, though, is that what goes up must come down, but what goes down doesn't always come up.  

Brian Livingston: Geovany Soto will turn it around, when remains the million dollar question. A lot people have attributed his poor start to his weight. He does seem a bit chunkier then last season. Perhaps forgoing Spring Training for the World Baseball Classic didn’t help him any.

I’m not singling out the WBC as the sole reason, but I’d prefer if guys who are going to play a key role in the season would stay away from this event. Granted, injuries can injuries can happen anywhere, anytime, but it becomes magnified to extremes during this event. He did have the shoulder injury at the beginning of the season and that could be contributing to his lack of production.

7. Which team in the NL Central concerns you the most?

TAB Bamford: Milwaukee... rumors are starting to pop up that they're in buy mode again. I don't like St. Louis' starters ability to keep winning like they are or stay healthy, and Cincinnati is going to fall apart w/out Votto. The Brewers might show the same killer instinct that got them Sabathia last year, but they won't waste their future on a guy in a walk year again.

Jacob Nitzberg: The Cardinals. St. Louis has good pitching, especially if Carpenter can stay healthy, but the surprise has been the success of their offense, save Pujols of course.  If this team can continue their NL-Central leading +31 run differential, they will be difficult to catch.

Ryan Winn: St. Louis Cardinals—Although the Brewers were in first place as June started, the Cardinals have a much better pitching rotation and batting order than anyone in the division. Last year, they were ravaged by injuries and still almost made the playoffs. Now, with their best pitchers healthy, it will be very hard for anyone, especially an inconsistent team like the Cubs, to catch up.

Kane Simmons: The Cardinals are my biggest concern because I am surrounded by Cardinals fans and also because they are a solid team. They have the best player in baseball at first base, and if they decide to make a move for a big name pitcher before the deadline, they would have a great team capable of the World Series. But, if recent history means anything, then a big trade is unlikely from the Redbirds.  

Brian Livingston: I would have to say the Cardinals simply for the fact that any Tony LaRussa managed team seems to hang around longer then other teams would like especially if they are not that good of a team to begin with. I still don’t know if the Brewers have what it takes because their rotation still doesn’t impress me.

8. Who should close—Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg or someone else?

TAB Bamford: Marmol's good in the swing role because he doesn't have to pitch once he gets up...Gregg is a waste of a roster spot. This needs to be addressed...but then so does the entire roster, so you just keep what you have until something else appears. How about we bring back Aardsma or Ceda?

Jacob Nitzberg: As much as it pains me to say it, of the available options on the roster, the Cubs should stick with Gregg.  Marmol is too valuable to remove from the setup role, as he can enter the game in the middle of a jam and/or pitch more than one inning if necessary.

Gregg’s K/9 ratio is just shy of Marmol’s, and his WHIP is higher because of the one awful outing against Houston where he didn’t get anyone out.  While Marmol might be more effective in the role, it doesn’t matter if the Cubs don’t have anyone to get him the ball with the lead.

Ryan Winn: Carlos Marmol—As I had made clear in one of my previous articles, I do not see Gregg as the fit in Chicago. Although he has performed better as of late, I strongly feel that it is just luck. Case in point, in a save against Pittsburgh, Gregg got a save thanks to a ball that was luckily not driven out of the park turned into a double-play thanks to a baserunning gaffe. Had Nyjer Morgan not gotten under the ball, we would have scratched another blown save up for him. Marmol is obviously the better talent, and the excuse that he is better in the 8th is ludicrous.

Kane Simmons: Marmol should be the closer. Both Marmol and Gregg have been equally unreliable, but Marmol has the better stuff. That being said, he seems more comfortable as a setup man, and, as you know, being a closer is as much about the pitchers' mindset as it is his stuff.

Brian Livingston: Kevin Gregg is the closer he won the job end of story. Some people still want Kerry Wood as the closer, but Gregg and Wood have almost identical records this year. Each has a few blown saves and high era.  It is more of a sentimental thing then it is a performance thing it comes to Wood. I wouldn’t mind having him either but the fact is he’s gone and that is it. Marmol will eventually be the closer, but it is Gregg’s job for now.

9. Who should be the starting first baseman—Derrek Lee, Micah Hoffpaur, or someone else (Jake Fox, trade?)

TAB Bamford: Hoffpauir. He bats left handed and actually hits the ball. Lee needs to find the bench or a new home; I honestly think he's six months from where David Ortiz is now.

Jacob Nitzberg: Derrek Lee should still be the starting first baseman.  His offense can only get better (fingers crossed), and his defense is too valuable to take away right now.  With players like Fontenot playing out of position, we need a gold-glover like Lee at first.  It is important to get Hoffpauir playing time, and once a week or more against righties would be the opportune time to put him at first and give Lee a bit of rest.

Ryan Winn: Derek Lee—He seemed to be getting his swing back in May, and his defense at first far exceeds that of Hoffpauir and Fox combined. If the right offer comes around (Peavy? Oswalt? Any middle reliever?), I fully believe both players could fill the gap, but while he is here, Lee is by far the best everyday option at first base.

Kane Simmons: D-Lee should be on first because of his defense, but Hoffpauir and Fox need ABs and more than just a pinch hitting role. Micah is a nice left handed bat in the lineup, and Fox was great at Triple-A, so they really need to be on the field more often. Possible solutions" try Fox at third to begin the game, then Fontenot as a defensive replacement. Now with Bradley out, Hoffpauir could get some starts in right. Long-term solution would be to try to trade Lee if Hoffpauir is the future.  

Brian Livingston: Derrek Lee is the starting first baseman unless he is seriously injured. Hoffpauir or Fox will get that start on the rare day that Lee is given a day off. My pipe dream would be having Adrian Gonzalez at first. If Lee didn’t have that break out season in ’05 there wouldn’t be an outcry of him to perform like that every year.  He plays solid defense and when he is hitting like he’s capable I don’t know if I want any other one anchoring first.

10. Should Jim Hendry try and re-acquire Mark DeRosa?

TAB Bamford: Yes, and sign him for three more seasons. This was the biggest mistake of Hendry's winter, and it was magnified by Ramirez getting hurt

Jacob Nitzberg: I love DeRosa, but the answer right now is no. DeRosa is the most valuable trading chip that the Indians have, and there are a number of teams looking at him for the same reasons the Cubs are. He would be a great fit, but the price would likely be too high.

Ryan Winn: No—DeRose was a fan favorite while in Chicago, but Hendry has dug a mighty big grave with the current team. The question is not whether or not he would fit with the Cubs, but what would have to be given up for him?

If you are trading away your future prospects for a utility player, you have to be pretty sure that player gives you a great chance at a championship. DeRosa was already on a team that fell flat in last year's playoffs, so what tells Hendry that he would be the player to push them over the edge this season? 

Because the offense will HAVE to turn around eventually, Hendry should turn his concentration to acquiring pitching and pray A-Ram stays healthy the second half of the season and Milton Bradley returns to his '08 form. Swapping Aaron Miles for Mark DeRosa would be nice, but probably too far-fetched.

Kane Simmons: I don't think so, that ship has sailed and where would he fit in? From what I've seen in Cleveland, he's played third and right. When Ramirez and Bradley are healthy, that puts DeRosa at second, where he had eight errors last year for the Cubs. If Bradely's injury is long-term, then maybe, but he should have never left. I don't think Hendry will (trade for him) though, since it would put a capper on his bad offseason moves. Gathright gone; Viszcaino gone; Gregg not having a good year; Bradley hurt again; Freel hurt. 

Brian Livingston: One of the few mistakes Hendry has made in his career as Cubs GM is trading Mark DeRosa. Yeah we’ve heard the reasons money and the possibility of him asking for big dollars at the end of his contract.

All legitimate gripes, but I’m not convinced for the simple fact that the money he wasted on signing Aaron Miles he could’ve used for D-Ro. If they need him so badly now why in the hell did they trade him in the first place?

As much as I’d welcome D-Ro back, I almost wish he had a no trade clause, just so he could stick to Hendry for trading him in the first place.