NBA Mock Draft Analysis and Predictions Part One

With the NBA Draft approaching, it’s time to break things down more scrupulously and take a glance at what might unfold Thursday night at Madison Square Garden. There are dozens of mock drafts, none of which are precisely the same. Some mocks are surprisingly dissimilar, for the reason that nothing is certain come draft night (with the exception of Blake Griffin going first overall).

A first-rate draft can turn a borderline team into contenders (i.e. Derrick Rose’s effect with the Bulls), and a wrong selection can haunt a franchise forever (i.e. Portland drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan…ouch!).

There are several draft forecasts I oppose, and surely an abundance of others do, so I thought it was fitting to give my take on the upcoming draft (first round, or top 30 picks), after all, the draft can’t be assessed enough.

Keep in mind there are a handful of players who, in most of the mock drafts, I feel would be too much of a gamble if taken at their projected spots. For instance, currently NBAdraft.net has the Charlotte Bobcats taking Tyler Hansbrough with the 12th overall pick. Unless the folks over at NBAdraft.net know something I and the rest of the sports world don’t, that prediction is totally ludicrous.

If Tyler Hansbrough is taken in the lottery, I’m done with the NBA. In all seriousness, I will cut all ties with the National Basketball Association if Psycho T is taken in the top 12. Moving on…

The idea of this is to discuss the upcoming draft. We all have different thoughts about certain players, and it’s interesting to hear different perspectives. I can’t be the only one who’s tired of ESPN’s Chad Ford. What makes him such an expert on this anyways? He’s a professor of conflict resolution…that doesn’t make him an NBA expert! Let’s get to it.

ND = NBAdraft.net
DE = DraftExpress.com
MND = MyNBAdraft.com
CF = ESPN’s Chad Ford

On with picks 30 – 21

30. Cleveland Cavaliers
ND: DaJuan Summers, SF, Georgetown
DE: Rodrigue Beaubois, PG, Cholet
MND: Taj Gibson, PF, USC
CF: Sam Young, SF, Pittsburgh

Analysis: Ultimately, the Cavs need to find a replacement for their Lithuanian giant (Ilgauskas). Dwight Howard is going to be around for a long time, and if Cleveland doesn’t want to get handled come playoff time they need to let Big Z crawl back up his beanstalk and search for a more athletic big.

That big man will come in free agency as there will be slim pickings at the center position at this spot in the draft. Cleveland will definitely not be taking Rodrigue Beaubois with their first pick, given he will most likely be on the board for their 2nd pick (46) if they wanted him. DaJuan Summers or Sam Young would be a great fit for this Cavs team. If Sam Young is on the board, I believe Cleveland would have a hard time passing on him.

They are in need of an athletic SF such as Young. He plays good defense, has nice size, a reliable jumper and could contribute immediately. He also looks like he could be LeBron’s long lost father.

Prediction: Sam Young, 6-6 SF, Pittsburgh

29. Los Angeles Lakers
ND: Derrick Brown, SF, Xavier
DE: Lester Hudson, PG/SG, Tenn. Martin
MND: Nick Calathes, PG/SG, Florida
CF: DaJuan Summers, SF, Georgetown

Analysis: Alright…Lester Hudson? Please! DraftExpress already ruined any credibility they might have had. Where in the hell do these guys come up with such ridiculous predictions? Lamar ‘Candyman’ Odom and Trevor Ariza are free agents, and it will be difficult to keep them both around.

Derrick Brown or DaJuan Summers seem to make the most sense if the Lakers don’t plan on keeping both Odom and Ariza around. They are both 6’8, extremely athletic and have large wingspans. If they are both available, LA would probably take Summers ahead of Brown.

Prediction: DaJuan Summers, 6-8 SF, Georgetown

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Boston)
ND: Jonas Jerebko, SF, Sweden
DE: Wayne Ellington, SG, UNC
MND: Omri Casspi, SF, Israel
CF: Patrick Mills, PG, St. Mary’s

Analysis: Chad Ford is definitely right about the T’Wolves needing a PG, but I think they will address this position with the 18th pick. After addressing the SG and PG positions with the 6th and 18th picks, I think their best bet might be to take Swedish SF Jonas Jerebko.

Prediction: Jonas Jerebko, 6-9 SF, Angelico Biella

27. Memphis Grizzlies (from Magic)
ND: Taj Gibson, PF, USC
DE: Nick Calathes, PG/SG, Florida
MND: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona
CF: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona

Analysis: Looks like the walking Q-Tip is the trendy pick here. It’s definitely a possibility, but I’ve got him going sooner than this. If Budinger is not around, Marcus Thornton of LSU would be a nice fit for the Grizzlies with the 27th pick. Thornton can fill the score sheet, play defense, has good athleticism and is ready to contribute right away in the NBA.

Prediction: Marcus Thornton, 6-4 SG, LSU

26. Chicago Bulls (from Nuggets)
ND: Toney Douglas, SG, Florida St.
DE: Omri Casspi, SF, Israel
MND: Marcus Thornton, SG, LSU
CF: Toney Douglas, SG, Florida St.

Analysis: NBAdraft.net and Chad Ford hit this one on the head. Toney Douglas would be a great fit for the Bulls. Ben Gordon could be gone to free agency (although I don’t expect him to go anywhere), but regardless of Gordon’s future with the team, Douglas would be an exceptional player to bring off the bench.

He is a lethal scorer with a wet jumper, plays good defense and could contribute immediately. His offensive repertoire is very similar to that of Ben Gordon.

Prediction: Toney Douglas, 6-2 SG, Florida St.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Spurs)
ND: Wayne Ellington, SG, UNC
DE: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona
MND: DaJuan Summers, SF, Georgetown
CF: Gani Lawal, PF, Georgia Tech

Analysis: Like a lot of teams, the Thunder could use a center but won’t have many options at this point. I expect the Thunder to take a SG here. Wayne Ellington should still be on the board, and is a probably the second best shooter in the draft behind Stephen Curry. If they can get over the fact that he looks like a Cabbage Patch doll, look for Oklahoma City to pull the trigger on the silky shooting Tar Heel.

Prediction: Wayne Ellington, 6-5 SG, UNC

24. Portland Trailblazers
ND: Victor Claver, SF, Spain
DE: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA
MND: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA
CF: Darren Collison, PG, UCLA

Analysis: Darren Collison anybody? I’ve got to agree. Portland is one of the deeper teams in the league, so there aren’t many positions they need help with. Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless aren’t pure point guards, and given the Trailblazers’ bench stability, it makes sense to use this pick to fill that void. I’m sure Portland would be thrilled if Collison was still on the board at this spot.

Prediction: Darren Collison, 6-1 PG, UCLA

23. Sacramento Kings (from Houston)
ND: Omri Casspi, SF, Israel
DE: Sam Young, SF, Pittsburgh
MND: Sam Young, SF, Pittsburgh
CF: Nick Calathes, PG/SG, Florida

Analysis: After watching tape on this Casspi kid from Israel, I think Sacramento would be fortunate to get him with the 23rd pick. His overall game is pretty polished, and anyone who draws Hedo Turkoglu comparisons is OK in my book.

As for Ford’s prediction… I’m not crazy about Calathes; actually, I can’t stand the guy. I’m not too sure the former Gator will succeed in the NBA, and frankly, just looking at the guy bothers me. I’m not sure what Chad Ford has been puffing on that made him put Calathes at this spot…but it must be potent.

Prediction: Omri Casspi, 6-9 SF, Israel

22. Dallas Mavericks
ND: Chase Budinger, SG/SF, Arizona
DE: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
MND: Jeff Teague, PG, Wake Forest
CF: Ty Lawson, PG, UNC

Analysis: The Mavs are in desperate need of a big man…kind of sad when your only big is Erick Dampier. Unfortunately, the center Dallas needs won’t be acquired with this pick. Jason Kidd is a free agent, and I don’t expect him to stay put in Dallas.

In concurrence with most of the other mocks, the Mavs should address the PG position here. Because of his size disadvantage, Ty Lawson should be available here for the Dallas Cubans to scoop up and would fit in nicely.

Prediction: Ty Lawson, 6-0 PG, UNC

21. New Orleans Hornets
ND: Eric Maynor, PG, VCU
DE: Austin Daye, SF/PF, Gonzaga
MND: DeJuan Blair, PF, Pittsburgh
CF: Terrence Williams, SG, Louisville

Analysis: Tyson Chandler will likely get traded this off-season, so filling his void at center would be the number one priority, but as you’ve noticed; bigs are not abundant in this draft class. Some think Chris Paul could use a backup PG with this pick, but I oppose. I think Chase Budinger would be a nice acquisition for New Orleans with the 21st pick.

Budinger might slip further than this given his lack of toughness…what a shocker, huh? The dorky white Q-Tip looking kid is marshmallow soft! On the plus side, he’s extremely athletic, versatile and has a lot of upside, so there is a lot of potential with him, which is what the NBA is all about. If he fails in the league he could always go back to volleyball….

Prediction: Chase Budinger, 6-7 SG/SF, Arizona

What does everyone else think? Input is encouraged!

Picks 20-11 coming tomorrow, followed by 10-1 on Thursday. [Best Sports News Site]