The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale Preview

Another season of The Ultimate Fighter winds down this Saturday night as the TUF 9 Finale takes place in Las Vegas. New lightweight and welterweight “Ultimate Fighter” crowns will be handed out, and two featured lightweight matches will set up the UFC lightweight division for the coming months.

Main Card

Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida 

Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida should put on an excellent performance for the main event. Both fighters are known for their high-octance approach to fighting, and both fighters should go all-out for the full 15 minutes.

Diego Sanchez has the edge in skillset and technical prowess, but Clay Guida has shown over his career that his gutsy, all-out style can be effective.

Guida’s strength comes in his wrestling skill, but I think he will be equally matched by Sanchez in this fight. Diego’s striking speed seems to have greatly improved since his drop to lightweight, and I look for him to take full advantage of that new speed and power against Guida.

If, and when, the fight does enter the clinch and hit the mat, Diego is seasoned enough to wrestle with Guida, and has the skills to pull off a submission.

I look for Diego to end this fight by KO sometime late in the second or third round.

Winner: Diego Sanchez

Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz

This matchup between Diaz and Stevenson is the fight I’m most looking forward to on the fight card. The fight is an excellent matchup, and one that truly could go either way.

Both fighters are clearly highly skilled on the ground; Diaz for his submission game and Stevenson for his wrestling game. I expect Stevenson should be able to use his larger physical presence to be able to control position over Diaz on the ground early on.

The problem with ground fighting against Nate Diaz is Diaz’s comfort level both on top and off his back. Stevenson will have to be fully aware and on his best guard on the mat to avoid falling in to one of Diaz’s many submission attempts.

On the feet, I think I have to give the edge to Diaz in the striking. Neither Nathan, nor his older brother Nick, seem like they should be good strikers, but both of them ultimately are solid on the feet.

Expect Nate to get the majority of points on the feet, and win the fight via submission sometime in the second or third round.

Winner: Nate Diaz

Chris Lytle vs. Kevin Burns

This matchup between Chris Lytle and Kevin Burns should provide exactly the type of fight the UFC is looking for on a TUF finale. Both fighters will most likely stand and trade blows from the feet.

Burns has some good submission skills as evidence by his submission victory over Roan Carneiro. However, judging by his last two fights with Anthony Johnson, Burns is more interested in striking, which will be his downfall in this fight.

Chris Lytle should be able to hold his own with Burns on the ground and his experience and striking skill should allow him to work Burns over and get the victory on points.

Winner: Chris Lytle

Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner

The TUF 9 lightweight final matchup isn’t that exciting in my book. Ross Pearson fights just like he looks—like a bulldog. What Pearson lacks in raw talent and skill he makes up for with his “straight-ahead” fighting style and endurance.

Andre Winner, on the other hand, brings more skill to the table, and should be able to win this fight. If Winner can avoid getting worn down early on by Pearson and keep the fight at a comfortable distance his skill and athletic abilities should propel him to the victory.

Winner: Andre Winner

Damarques Johnson vs. James Wilks 

Johnson and Wilks will fight for the TUF 9 welterweight title, and I personally don’t see this being much of a close fight.

James Wilks took nearly a full 15 minutes to put away a depleted Frank Lecster in the semifinals, and just doesn’t match up well physically or talent-wise with Damarques.

Damarquest will win this fight quickly, and by whatever means he desires.

Winner: Damarques Johnson

Undercard

Brad Blackburn vs. Edgar Garcia – Winner: Brad Blackburn
Melvin Guillard vs. Gleison Tibau – Winner: Gleison Tibau
Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Tomasz Drwal – Winner: Mike Ciesnolevicz
Cameron Dollar vs. Jason Dent – Winner: Jason Dent
Frank Lecster vs. Nick Osipczak – Winner: Nick Osipczak