New York Mets: Can Zack Wheeler Handle the NL East?

With Matt Harvey likely out for the entire 2014 New York Mets season, Zack Wheeler has potential to emerge as the ace. Wheeler was drafted No. 6 overall by the San Francisco Giants in 2009 and has an electric fastball. But how will he fare against the National League East?

If Wheeler were named the Mets Opening Day starter, he would be facing Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals on March 31. He got lit up in his spring training start against Strasburg on March 25 for five earned runs in 2.2 innings with three walks and five hits.

Was his shaky fastball command a red flag, or is it too early in the year to be concerned? Here are suggestions on how Wheeler can prosper against the Mets’ division rivals.

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Miami Marlins

His one start against Miami was brilliant. Wheeler tossed seven innings with just two earned runs in a win. It was a no-hitter until the seventh inning.

With the Atlanta Braves and Nationals competing for the division title, it is important for the Mets to feast on the lowly Marlins. When Wheeler takes the mound against Miami, the Mets will likely win if the lineup even supplies a meager amount of run support.

The Mets must win games against the Marlins to even have a distant chance of attaining a National League wild-card spot. Finishing the season with an 8-11 record against Miami like the team did in 2013 is unacceptable.

Washington Nationals

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Zack Wheeler against the Washington Nationals on June 30, 2013.

Wheeler had a 3.93 ERA with a 1.2545 WHIP in 18.1 innings. He averaged slightly over six innings in each of his three starts, which according to Fangraphs, is better than the MLB norm.

Given that he averaged less than six innings per start in 2013, his endurance against the Nationals is encouraging.

Wheeler needs to avoid juicing up the bases and escape innings without major scoring threats against him. Bryce Harper launched a three-run homer against him during the March 25 spring training game, and that is the consequence of allowing multiple runners on base.

Philadelphia Phillies

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Zack Wheeler against the Philadelphia Phillies on Aug. 26, 2013.

His small sample size against Philadelphia is a tale of two starts.

When he first encountered the Phillies at Citi Field on July 20, he labored through 4.2 innings with seven hits and two balls, but just two earned runs. Then he pitched a gem on Aug. 26 in his second matchup with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings.

Overall, he posted a 3.18 ERA against the Phillies, but he pitched just 11.1 total innings. The Phillies hit .273 and got 12 hits and drew four walks against him.

The two starts contrast so drastically that it is difficult to predict his performance against the Phillies in 2014. Wheeler proved that he is capable of delivering a quality start against them, but he also needs to refine his command in order for the Mets to avoid the bullpen.

Despite the strong outing on Aug. 26, Wheeler lost. The Mets offense has to spot him at least a couple of runs when he is in the zone. Otherwise, the pressure of an anemic lineup might wear down on him.

Atlanta Braves

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Zack Wheeler after his MLB debut against the Atlanta Braves on June 18, 2013.

Out of all of the National League East enemies, Wheeler has been the most successful against Atlanta. In 2013, he posted a 2.89 ERA against them in three starts with 17 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He also held Braves hitters to a frigid .206 average.

Wheeler impressed in his Major League debut against Atlanta on June 18 with six scoreless innings and seven strikeouts. However, he also allowed four hits and five walks. 

The Braves are a high strikeout team. At 22.6 percent, they ranked No. 3 in the majors in strikeouts last season. Wheeler needs to capitalize on all of those empty swings and down-looking plate appearances.