Has Johan Santana Hit a Wall?

ESPN’s Buster Olney questions Johan Santana today in an article.

Santana’s season has definitely turned on him. In his first seven starts this year, he was unbelievably good, posting a 0.78 ERA. In his last six starts, punctuated by the worst start of his career yesterday against the Yankees, he has a 6.50 ERA. His walks are up and his strikouts are down.

In Santana’s defense, three of his last six starts have been quality starts, and the 14 earned runs he gave up in his last two starts (in 10 innings) were against the Phillies and the Yankees, two of the best hitting teams in baseball. Santana’s current season totals are a 3.29 ERA with 76 hits allowed, 24 walks and 94 strikeouts in 82 innings pitched. These are still terrific numbers.

The thing is that almost every starting pitcher in baseball has stretches like Santana’s two stretches this year. However, most don’t have stretches quite as good as Santana’s first seven games this year, and those pitchers who manage to avoid even one stretch in a season like Santana’s last six games are usually Cy Young contenders.

In other words, it is far too soon to be predicting Santana’s imminent demise. Olney’s article is typical sports writing, making a mountain out of a mole hill.  It stirs up interest from the reading public, and if Olney turns out to be right and Santana ends of having a bad season, then Olney can take credit for being the first sports writer to have called it.

If, on the other hand, Olney gets it wrong, so what? By that time, Olney and the baseball world have moved on to the next controversy du jour.

A similar tempest in a teapot is currently going on with a blogger who raised the possibility of whether Raul Ibanez’s hot 2009 start could be performance enhancing drug inspired. It was a pretty harmless piece, but a Philadelphia sports writer turned it into a major controversy. I’ll write more on this in a subsequent post.