Can the Rays' Momentum Be Sustained?

Now that the Rays are three games above .500 and only five games back in the AL East standings, are they finally over the hump, attempting to get back in contention?

Or will they falter because of rising pressure and expectations?

It has been a completely different season this year for the Rays—filled with injuries, a mediocre pitching staff, and no clutch hitting. There were only a few injuries last year that were spread throughout the season.

Even though Pena, Longoria, and Kazmir all got hurt at some point during the year, their injuries did not overlap each other. This year, injuries to Bartlett, Kazmir, Longoria, and Aki have all put a huge strain on the Rays' lineup and rotation.

Kazmir’s absence has been filled adequately by the young standout David Price, but Bartlett, Aki, and Longoria have been a big difference. Bartlett was leading the majors in batting average before going down with his injury, and no one on the team can play shortstop defensively as well as he can.

Aki was always a steady hand at second base. He did the right things at the plate to get runners in scoring position, put the ball in play when he needed to, and make the pitcher work during his at bats. Longoria’s absence does not need to be explained, as he was probably the leading candidate for AL MVP before his injury.

The pitching staff for the Rays has been quite unreliable. Sonnanstine looks to be a bust, and the wrong person not dealt in the Jackson-for-Joyce trade as Sonnanstine’s ERA is 6.65, while Jackson’s is a stellar 2.24.

However, starting pitching isn’t the big problem as the Rays have arguably the worst bullpen in the AL. Balfour looks to be a one-year wonder. Percival spends more time on the DL than on the field and Thayer, Nelson, and Wheeler are less than spectacular.

Also, there is no true closer.

Because of this, the Rays have blown many leads in comparison to last year—like the historic meltdown in Cleveland—putting a lot of pressure on the offense. It has gotten better of late, but still is going to need a huge improvement if the Rays are going to make a run.

Lastly, I think the biggest stat for the Rays is their record in one-run ball games, which is 8-13 this year compared to 29-18 in the 2008 campaign. This is a telling stat that shows a few flaws.

This year, the Rays are 12th in the AL in fielding percentage, where last year they were fourth. Errors will always come back to haunt you, no matter what. They give other teams extra opportunities and, with a shaky bullpen, you will lose more often that not.

The Rays team ERA is about .70 points higher this year than last, but is getting better.

Lastly, the Rays are not hitting with runners in scoring position. Last year, it felt as though every time the Rays had someone in scoring position with one out or less, they were going to get him home by playing small ball or big.

This year the reliance on home runs has cut down on the small ball and has made the Rays less clutch. Because of this, the Rays have almost lost as many one-run games as last year—not even half way through the season yet.

With all that said, there is a beacon of hope for the Rays. It seems the injury bug is past the Rays—Bartlett is to make his appearance this week, Kazmir is doing rehab in the minor leagues, Longoria is back in the lineup, and the emergence of Ben Zobrist all point to a return for a race for the pennant.

If it wasn’t for Longoria, Zobrist might be the team MVP along with Carl Crawford. Also, BJ Upton seems to be coming around, finally getting his average above the Mendoza line while stealing his bases.

Another positive is that the Rays are 13-12 against the AL East and 10-8 against the Yankees/Red Sox, which means they have lost a lot of games to people who are beneath them in talent level.

One would think that if the Rays can keep the winning record against the Yankees/Red Sox and beat the teams they should, the pennant race will once again be tight with the Rays back in the thick of things.