Tate Forcier: What To Expect Next Season: Steven Threet '08 or Chad Henne '04?

The summer of 2009 seems very similar to the summer of 2008 for Michigan fans. Michigan will start over at quarterback just like they did in the 2008 season.

Sure, somethings are different: The offensive line has more experience in the spread and so does the back-up quarterback Nick Sheridan.

But don't be fooled by coach speak (RR says the QB position is still up for grabs), this is Tate Forcier's team in 2009.

As Michigan fans, what should we expect out of Tate Forcier next year?

Sitting in June of last year, the Michigan faithful had high hopes for a redshirt Freshman that came to Michigan as a four-star QB via Georgia Tech—Steven Threet.

As we all know now, Threet didn't tear up the Big Ten and didn't even get the start against Utah (Michigan's opening game 2008). He looked decent sometimes (the Wisconsin comeback) and terrible at other times (the 100-yard Toledo pick six).

That is pretty much the definition of a freshman QB. Threet's numbers in 2008: 51 percent completion rate, threw for 1105 yards with 9 touchdowns and 7 picks.

So why will Tate be different?

Actually, we don't know he will.

Let's compare Tate to another Freshman starter that had a pretty good first year under center: Chad Henne.

Chad came to Michigan as one of the top rated QB recruits in the nation, he enrolled in the summer and was the surprise starter opening day after a shoulder injury to expected starter Matt Gutierrez.

Chad had a very nice 2004, throwing for 2743 yards with a 60 percent completed percentage.

He threw for 25 touchdowns and 12 picks while leading the Wolverines to the Rose Bowl that year. Chad was named All-American Freshman Team QB in 2004.

I would call those numbers the possible upside for Tate.

So what's the difference between Chad and Tate that make this upside possible?

1. Tate enrolled in January. Chad in the summer. Tate got spring ball and a ton of experience being around the coaches for six months.
2. Tate's QB coach. Tate regularly worked with a QB coach in high school and is probably one of the most prepared QB's in recent memory to start as a Freshman.
3. Tate is very accurate. Thanks to his high school training and QB coach (and we saw some proof in the Spring Game) Tate hopefully can match Chad's 60 percent completion rate in 2009.
4. Tate's mobile. Chad and Threet weren't. They were strictly drop back passers. Tate hopefully will be able to avoid the rush and get some first downs with his feet. Many analysts say your QB needs to get at least one first down with his legs a game. Michigan fans are hoping more for 4-5 from Tate.
5. Tate doesn't need to win games, just not lose them. You will hear that quote for any Freshman QB so it would apply to Chad and Threet as well. With Tate's mobility hopefully Michigan will be able to have some longer drives and give the defense a break
6. Tate has the skill set to run the spread. Threet didn't.

So there you have it Wolverines Fans. There is plenty to be optimistic about 2009, but we will need to remember that: Tate will make Freshman mistakes, still has a thin high school senior like frame, and defenses will do their best to confuse the young man.

So the upside for Tate is: Chad 2004, the downside is: Threet 2008.

Good luck Tate, the Wolverine faithful is counting on you.