New York Jets Linebacker David Harris Is Getting Paid Exactly What He Deserves

For weeks, we've been hearing the same three names when it comes to New York Jets salary-cap cuts: cornerback Antonio Cromartie, wide receiver Santonio Holmes and quarterback Mark Sanchez. Some, like OverTheCap.com's Jason Fitzgerald, have suggested a fourth: linebacker David Harris. His departure would free another $5 million in salary-cap space.

Fitzgerald is cautionary, and he has good reason to be. Harris' salary is finally consistent with his performance. It doesn't matter if you cite traditional or advanced statistics. Unless there's an escalator clause that we don't know, David Harris is getting paid what he deserves in 2014.

Why Folks Say He's Overpaid

The average pay per year (APY) statistic paints Harris' contract in the worst light. It ranks fourth among the NFL's inside linebackers. Only San Francisco's Patrick Willis, Pittsburgh's Lawrence Timmons and San Francisco's NaVorro Bowman's APYs are higher.

I criticized Harris' high APY myself by writing, "The Jets pay David Harris as if he's the fourth-best linebacker in the NFL. He has never made the Pro Bowl."

I went on to conclude, "At the right price, Harris is worth keeping. If the Jets could spread his compensation over two years instead of one, he'd make similar money to Arizona's Karlos Dansby, an inside linebacker with similar statistics."

The flaw in my reasoning was that I was evaluating money that Harris had already banked. There's nothing the Jets can do to get that back. The question about Harris should be: Is his 2014 compensation commensurate with his performance?

One way to answer that is to consider who among his peers is getting similar money in 2014, then compare them with Harris using both basic and advanced statistics.

Basic statistics are the kind you see in newspapers or mainstream sports sites. The basic statistics we'll use are:

• Solo Tackles
• Sacks
• Assisted Tackles
• Passes Defended (PDef)
• Interceptions (INT)
• Forced Fumbles (FF)
• Fumbles Recovered (FR)

Advanced statistics attempt to put performances in context. For example, a basic statistic, tackles, counts how many times a player downs an opponent to end his advance. Advanced statistics use film study to judge the play's effectiveness.

Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Ian Kenyon's article, "5 Advanced NFL Stats That Fans Should Know," describes the premise behind advanced statistics before describing five examples. One of them is Win Probability Added (WPA) from AdvancedNFLStats.com, the source for advanced statistics used here.

The statistics we'll use are:

• Positive Win Probability Added (+WPA) measures a defender's impact on a game's ultimate result
• Positive Expected Points Added (+EPA) measures the impact a defensive player has on his team's ability to score.
• Success Count (SC) is the number of plays a player made that yielded positive results. These plays are the basis for calculating +EPA.
  NOTE: Plays that accomplish the opposition's goals do not affect +WPA or +EPA. The motive is to avoid punishing defenders for making good efforts to avoid even worse results. For example, an open-field tackle that saves a touchdown while permitting a first down is a good physical effort. Because it still improves the opponent's field position and provides a new set of downs it is a negative play statistically.
• Tackle Factor (TF) is the result of dividing a player's tackles by the number of tackles analysts expect from his position. A value of 1.00 is average.

See the AdvancedNFLStats.com Glossary for more information.

Now, let's meet Harris' competitors.

The Field

Player	Team	2014 Base Salary
DeMeco Ryans	Eagles	$6,800,000
Lawrence Timmons	Steelers	$6,750,000
Patrick Willis	49ers	$5,285,000
David Harris	JETS	$4,900,000

Harris will receive $5 million in 2014 consisting of a $4.9 million base salary and $100,000 workout bonus. Philadelphia's DeMeco Ryans, Pittsburgh's Lawrence Timmons and San Francisco's Patrick Willis are the only inside linebackers with higher base salaries.

These are Harris' peers. They are who we must judge him against when evaluating his pay. 

It's time to look at some numbers.

Basic Statistics

Player/Team	Solo Tackles	Assisted Tackles	Sacks	PDef	INT	FF	FR
DeMeco Ryans/Eagles	102	25	4.0	9	2
Lawrence Timmons/Steelers	86	40	3.0	7	2	1	1
David Harris/JETS	70	54	2.0			1
Patrick Willis/49ers	82	22	3.0			2

NFL.com's statistics pages rank linebackers by total tackles, the sum of Table 2's Solo Tackles and Assisted Tackles columns. Harris came in a close third. His 124 tackles trailed Ryan's 127 and Timmons' 126 and were well ahead of Willis' 104. Willis accumulated his total in 14 games. Had he played 16 games, he might have had 118 or 119.

These statistics say the following about Harris:

• His activity level was similar to that of his peers. Harris' tackle count was three behind that of Timmons. That's not a significant difference.
• He was more active in run defense. Judging by the passes defended and interception columns, Timmons and Ryans apparently had bigger roles in pass coverage. Willis appeared to play a similar role to Harris.
• He did not have as many open-field tackles as his peers. Harris had a significantly lower percentage of solo tackles. The reasons why provide room for debate. Was Harris' lack of solo tackles evidence of his lack of speed and tackling ability? Did he have to help teammates with tackles they started but couldn't finish? Basic statistics cannot answer these questions.

Because his role seems similar to Willis', a player who will collect $385,000 more in 2014, Harris' 2014 pay seems appropriate, although room for debate exists. Let's dig deeper.

Advanced Statistics

Player/Team	+WPA	+EPA	SC	TF
Lawrence Timmons/Steelers	1.44	63.3	94	1.25
David Harris/JETS	1.32	42.1	69	1.19
DeMeco Ryans/Eagles	1.25	48.1	60	1.23
Patrick Willis/49ers	1.04	48.4	63	1.27

In his basic statistics, Harris appears to be active but limited. However, advanced statistics show him in a better light.

In Table 3, Harris has moved from third place to second. That's because AdvancedNFLStats.com uses +WPA as its default yardstick. Is there a better way to measure a player's value than to assess his impact on a game's outcome? Harris trails only Timmons in that regard.

He also finished second to Timmons in successful plays, plays that are positive for the defense.
That's a strong endorsement for Harris. Of the four inside linebackers with base salaries of at least $4.9 million, Harris had a greater impact on his team's results than Ryans and Willis.

His +EPA was the lowest of the four, but the Jets' trouble with scoring points and the defense's lack of takeaways provide ample explanation. Likewise, his relatively low tackle factor is comfortably above average.

Quibble about the fine points of Harris' play if you must. If you buy the methodology that underlies these statistics, he played a significant role in game outcomes, more significant than two of four inside linebackers who will earn more in 2014.

Judge for Yourself

Name/Team	Solo Tackles	Assisted Tackles	+WPA	+EPA	SC	TF	2014 Base Salary
NaVorro Bowman/49ers	120	25	2.40	78.7	95	1.53	$4,000,000
D'Qwell Jackson/Browns	75	66	1.49	51.4	83	1.30	$3,933,333
Jerrell Freeman/Colts	83	43	1.52	61.0	78	1.25	$570,000
David Harris/JETS	70	54	1.32	42.1	69	1.19	$4,,900,000

You can make a case for Harris' salary when you compare his play against his monetary peers. When you look at inside linebackers with lower base salaries, you apparently run into trouble. So do the other players we've analyzed.

Table 4 compares Harris' basic and advanced statistics against those of the top inside linebackers with lower base salaries. For brevity's sake, the table doesn't repeat the numbers of Ryans, Timmons and Willis. 

NaVorro Bowman and D'Qwell Jackson outperformed their seemingly more expensive brethren. They are reaping the rewards in 2014. Bowman will collect in additional roster bonus of $750,000. Jackson's combined roster and workout bonuses total $4.1 million. 

Only Ryans bested Jerrell Freeman in total tackles. Timmons tied him. Freeman's +WPA beat both. At Freeman's price, he's a bargain. He adds minimal bonus money to his $570,000 base salary. Consider Freeman a salary outlier, a minimum-wage player.

That means Harris is still not overpaid. His lack of significant bonus money saves him. It's possible that incentive clauses exist, but they could be the kind that don't count against the cap—the so-called "not likely to be earned" variety.

At last, Harris' pay makes sense. It's too little, too late from a management standpoint, but time has wrung the excess pay from his deal. If the Jets want Harris back in 2015, it's up to them to keep up the good work.

Follow Philip Schawillie on Twitter: @digitaltechguid