Will the San Francisco Giants Be Buyers Come the Trade Deadline?

After four consecutive losing seasons, by any rational method of evaluation, the Giants should still be in the process of rebuilding so that they can put together a really good team in the future that will be in contention every year for a five or six year period, like the Giants from 1997 to 2004.

However, the Giants have been good enough so far in 2009, and there’s now so much parity in the game, that 55 games into the season, the Giants at 29-26 find themselves only one game back of the Mets and Cardinals for the NL wild card spot.

If the Giants find themselves in late July no more than three games back of the wildcard leader, the temptation will be great to trade prospects for a chance to win this year.

This is especially the case, since Giants’ GM Brian Sabean’s contract expires after this season.  If the Giants sneak into the postseason this year, even if they get crushed in the first round of playoffs, it’s hard to imagine Sabean getting the ax. 

Sabean will be hard pressed to resist a deal that gives him a better chance of keeping his job if the Giants are still close enough to have a reasonable shot.

If you have any doubt about the level of parity in baseball right now, take note that only a third of the way into the season, the Dodgers (at .672) are the only team in baseball with a winning percentage at or better than .600, and the Nationals (at .273) are the only team with an winning percentage at or below .420.

In fact, since the 2005 season, only five teams (including the Dodgers so far this year) have had records at .600 or higher; and only 15 teams have had records at .420 or lower (it’s easier to put together a bad team than it is to construct a good one). 

This means that 86.7 percent of teams over the last roughly five years have had records between .599 and .421, or in other words, about 97 to 68 wins.  That’s a lot of parity by historical standards.

Parity is good in the sense that more teams have a chance to make the postseason.  On the other hand, part of the excitement of being a baseball fan is to have at least a few really great teams, especially when the postseason rolls around.

The best way to reduce too much parity is expansion.  With the economy in recession right now, it is not the time for MLB to expand.

However, once the recession has ended and the economy is growing briskly again, probably by no later than 2012 or 2013, it will be high time for MLB to seriously consider another round of expansion.