Has Jose Reyes Peaked?

Buster Olney of ESPN wrote an article today questioning whether shortstop Jose Reyes has already peaked, and asks whether the Mets will be stuck waiting on Reyes the way the Cubs did on Mark Prior a few years ago, after Prior hurt his arm. The article struck me as the kind of article sports writers write when facing a deadline and they can’t think of anything else to write about.

Reyes had three sensational years from 2006 to 2008. This year, at age 26, he’s had injuries and hasn’t played as well. Suddenly, it’s doom and gloom and questions of whether Reyes has already peaked.

I sure wouldn’t bet on it.

Reyes had a run of four years prior to this one, where he was exceptionally healthy, averaging 158 games played a year. This year, he has a small tear in his hamstring that a lot of players come back from.

Reyes may have to steal fewer bases than he has in the past in order to protect his hamstring, but as he gets older, he’s going to steal fewer bases anyway.

Olney’s article says scouts from other teams have noticed a decrease in Reyes’ defensive range and a seeming erosion of Reyes’ defensive play. I don’t see this as being a big deal. Reyes is having a poor, injury-plagued year, after so many good ones.

Also, speed and defensive range are skills that diminish as players age. Skills that improve are plate discipline and power. Between 2006 and 2008, Reyes hit 47 home runs, exceptionally good numbers for a shortstop his age playing in an extreme pitchers’ park like Shea Stadium. The new Mets stadium will almost certainly be a better place to hit than Shea.

The comparison to Mark Prior is frankly ridiculous. Prior is a pitcher who couldn’t come back from a major arm injury. Reyes has a small hamstring tear, an injury that players fully recover from all the time.

If a pitcher loses his throwing arm, he’s done. Even if the hamstring problem costs Reyes a little speed going forward, he’s still got plenty of skills to improve upon as he enters his peak seasons, from age 27-31.

Anybody who writes off a proven great young player for one off-year at age 26 is a fool.