Six Games Up: Red Sox Feel the Heat in Boston

I worry.

The Boston Red Sox ended Sunday six games ahead of the New York Yankees, with 25 games to play for each team. In Boston, where I was born and raised, it must feel as if the Sox are 15 behind with 14 to go.

Such is life.

I can't help but wonder how the Sox have done it. I know the stock answer—pitching—and of course it’s true. The axiom that pitching is 75 percent of baseball is probably short by a few digits.

But anyone who knows baseball, even from an observant fan’s perspective, knows that the game is much more than the sum of its facets. Baseball is all-game encompassing happenstance, with plenty of room for luck.

A missed strike call, a just-barely-foul ball, a gust of wind—all these can change a game. I think it was Bill James who said reality often astonishes theory.

Besides, many teams with excellent pitching staffs don’t play .600 baseball for this much of a season.

I look at the Red Sox and I wonder. Their two serious sluggers are in slight decline, getting older and more prone to injury and fatigue. David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have done great things for the Sox, more than many Boston writers can admit or maybe even grasp, but 2007 has been a statistical and physical chore for the Dominican demolition duo.

The Sox, to their credit, have gotten some key contributions from their everyday players. Jason Varitek is, like Jorge Posada, a genuine leader at catcher, even if he no longer hits on Posada's level. Coco Crisp is a revelation; his outfield play is a beautiful thing to watch, and his hitting and base running have been timely. Mike Lowell is a terrific team player and the glue of the offense—it's too bad he’ll have to leave, in part, to pay J.D. Drew’s salary. 

Drew is a rally killer, a bad fit in a tough spot. I know he's hurting physically and mentally, but this was preventable torture. Even Wily Mo Pena had more homers before he was traded—Pena against a fastball pitcher is a better bet than Drew against almost anyone.

If Pena’s right field defense was so objectionable (and it was, especially on a pitching team)...so what? The Red Sox have proved they care little for defense by playing Julio Lugo at shortstop for four long years.

The only signing worse than Lugo's, of course, was Drew’s.

New York, meanwhile, has Alex Rodriguez, the best player in the world. Not only has A-Rod wiped out any MVP race, he has done so by performing in the clutch.

All those infrequent early Yankee wins seemed to come off Rodriguez’s bat, and he continues to get big singles, steal bases, score from first on throwing errors, and, of course, hit homers.

The Yankees have a Hall-of-Fame left side of the infield, a monster in left, an underrated star in right, the American League’s best catcher, and a bench that sometimes has Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Wilson Betemit on it.

And somehow the Sox are six games up.  

Part of the answer, again, is pitching. New York's pitchers, like Boston’s big sluggers, are in decline. The Yankee bullpen has metamorphosed like a Kafka protagonist, with hurlers who spent May in Double-A getting called on in the late innings. 

If a starter holds the opposition to three or four runs, New York is scary. But that can be a big "if."

Theo Epstein has made three difficult but correct decisions in the recent past: not giving extra years and millions to Pedro Martinez and Damon, and not extending Curt Schilling this spring.

It's not that the Sound Machine isn't still a good pitcher—he is. He’s gutsy. Tenacious. Red Sox fans owe him an ocean of gratitude.

But the Sox don’t owe him another year at $13 million.

Josh Beckett is an excellent pitcher. He's tough in that peculiarly Texas way, as Nolan Ryan was and Roger Clemens is. But he can’t beat the Yankees—and he cost the Sox Hanley Ramirez.

Ramirez could have been the Red Sox's first great center fielder since Fred Lynn’s heyday—and for far below market value.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is troubling. I know he’s brilliant at times, but it’s those other times that kill him. Overall, good. In a big situation, he’s a roll of the...

Tim Wakefield is like Lowell—important in so many ways. But he's a knuckleballer who the Yankees have figured out. If the Sox were going to play Tampa Bay in the playoffs, I’d feel great about Wakefield. I suspect that won’t be the case.

The Red Sox have constructed a very good bullpen. When you can use Mike Timlin, even given his advanced age and occasional blowups, in the sixth inning, you have something. Eric Gagne will straighten out, and Jon Papelbon is like Dick Radatz with a workout habit. Hidecki Okajima has been a blessing.

Can the Yankees catch the Red Sox for the division? I hope not, but I have Sox fan blood running through my veins—and a memory that goes back too far.

I wasn’t at the first Boston Massacre in 1770, but I was at the second in 1978.

New York is a better team. Boston has better pitching. I can see a routine grounder to Lugo with Derek Jeter busting down to first...  

And I worry.